Furlough Estimates

tcco94 said:
Come on - we haven't had the testing capability to know how many cases are actually out there. Look at NY anti body test study. This thing won't even have a 1% death rate when it's said and done and we know how many tens of millions have already had the virus.
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That argument has been around for a few months now, hasn't changed. The fatality rate also hasn't changed. That was the number when this was only in China. That's still the number with the data we have now. Are there cases we don't know about? Sure. But there are also deaths we haven't counted. And, you know, of the current cases - patients that just haven't died yet.

All the evidence we have says 6%. The argument that everyone or most everyone has already caught Covid is BS. If that really were the case, the massive shutdowns last month wouldn't have done anything. But they did. In most states, they have been effective at causing infection rates to go down, rather than increase exponentially.
 
bike21 said:
The media targeting us? C'mon dude that just isn't reality. Do they suck at aviation reporting in general? Yep. Hype some sweet clickbait headlines? Yep. But a coordinated campaign? Nah.
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Did you miss the article I posted? Or the hundreds of stories about the packed airplanes.

The medical professionals in my life dismissed most of the article I posted as abject garbage. Sadly most of the population isn't smart enough to do that.

There are no packed airplanes at least where I can see the loads. The TSA numbers are still less than 10% of what they were last year.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
That argument has been around for a few months now, hasn't changed. The fatality rate also hasn't changed. That was the number when this was only in China. That's still the number with the data we have now. Are there cases we don't know about? Sure. But there are also deaths we haven't counted. And, you know, of the current cases - patients that just haven't died yet.

All the evidence we have says 6%. The argument that everyone or most everyone has already caught Covid is BS. If that really were the case, the massive shutdowns last month wouldn't have done anything. But they did. In most states, they have been effective at causing infection rates to go down, rather than increase exponentially.
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If only there were multiple studies conducted that showed millions of undetected cases...
 
drunkenbeagle said:
That argument has been around for a few months now, hasn't changed. The fatality rate also hasn't changed. That was the number when this was only in China. That's still the number with the data we have now. Are there cases we don't know about? Sure. But there are also deaths we haven't counted. And, you know, of the current cases - patients that just haven't died yet.

All the evidence we have says 6%. The argument that everyone or most everyone has already caught Covid is BS. If that really were the case, the massive shutdowns last month wouldn't have done anything. But they did. In most states, they have been effective at causing infection rates to go down, rather than increase exponentially.
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A few months? A few months ago we were running normal like nothing had affected us. I never said everyone or most everyone has caught it. I said data from actual anti body tests and statistics is showing the death rate to be dramatically lower, less than 1%. That was data in one of the most affected areas in the world. That is data today. Sure you can go off the case count if you want but that's not the full story, at all. At this point it's a lazy scare tactic and argument.

Fact is everyday more data comes out and everyday we realize this fatality rate is not what we once thought it was when shut down. Hell they have been wrong about more than they were right about. In the beginning the CDC said don't wear masks, then it was only approved masks. Now we have learned wearing masks dramatically helps regardless if it's an approved mask? We never even reached pandemic levels outside of the NE and the fatality for people outside of those at risk is probably shockingly low.

You are entitled to live in fear if you want and believe whatever you want about the virus. I'm not even advocating open up everything, of course be smart so we can help those at risk. That doesn't mean destroy everything that statistical evidence is showing every week is not something we thought it originally was. Fatality rate simply isn't 6.8% and at this point you're fighting an uphill battle to prove otherwise. Like I said, no one believes that anymore.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Did you miss the article I posted? Or the hundreds of stories about the packed airplanes.

The medical professionals in my life dismissed most of the article I posted as abject garbage. Sadly most of the population isn't smart enough to do that.

There are no packed airplanes at least where I can see the loads. The TSA numbers are still less than 10% of what they were last year.
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It's bad reporting, not a targeted campaign.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
It doesn’t really make a big difference either way. A summer of “bad reporting” and we are all going to be out of work.


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Has the media ever not been sensationalist about aviation? I think most of us will be out of work soon, for many of us permanently, but bad reporting will only be part of the reason.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Exactly this. After going through 9/11 and the Great Recession, I've always been conservative with my finances. When I was a CA at SkyWest, I was still driving my old paid off Honda Accord while FOs were telling me about their nice BMWs and crazy high student loans. I did splurge on some nice things, like my mountain and road bikes. But I paid cash for them and they were relatively inexpensive compared to cars.

We have enough in savings to make it a few years on furlough, if we include UI and my wife going back to work. That definitely takes some stress off, and makes a lot of the sacrifices the past few years well worth it.
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Friend of mine in his probationary year at SJI surprised me when he picked me up in a new Porsche Cayenne....
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
From what I’m seeing in the media, there is a fear based campaign to keep people out of airplanes. Tales of packed flights and immunologists who swear they were sickened with the ‘rona.

I was hopeful I wouldn’t be out of a job for too long. But with a public campaign to kill off the airlines, I’m now certain I’ll be unemployed for years. If not 5-10 years.

I don’t know why this is happening but it is and I can say the last couple years have been grand. Thanks 121 for the best years of my career. Too bad it was so short. I’m sorry you had to get hit by this agenda.


www.nbcnews.com

Virologist hospitalized with coronavirus believes he got it through his eyes

"We tend to pay attention to the nose and mouth," Dr. Joseph Fair said. "But you know, droplets landing on your eyes are just as infectious."
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com


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I have a few friends who are frequent fliers - some of which are taking some weird pleasure in watching the apparent demise of US airlines- they've felt "hurt" by how they've been treated by US domestic travel in the last 10 years (baggage fees, insincere apologies, feeling like a sardine, etc). One even wants the airlines of eastern europe to come in and "class it up again" (he loves Turkish and Etihad). I always tell people that it's the US consumer that creates the product, the airline- not the other way around. But I've taken notice of the latest media agenda, and there's a lot of schadenfreude involved.

*also watched with shock the shade getting thrown at HAL when SWA moved in on the interisland stuff- there was even a pic posted of a SWA shark eating Mokulele/HAL fish? So bizarre!
 
tcco94 said:
Come on - we haven't had the testing capability to know how many cases are actually out there. Look at NY anti body test study. This thing won't even have a 1% death rate when it's said and done and we know how many tens of millions have already had the virus. Countries (us included) are very behind on testing. And let's not even discuss states like Connecticut where 60% of their deaths come from long term care facilities.

I know you know this and that the fatality is not actually 6.8%. That argument was valid in March but honestly no one believes it anymore.
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I totally agree we are way behind on testing. Any solution will require orders of magnitude more than we are currently doing.

The CDC and John's Hopkins are the best numbers we have. We aren't doing widespread surveillance testing of antibodies or swab tests (according to the CDC), so who knows how common it is? 6.8% is what the data says. Many countries are seeing case fatality rates much higher than that - 12 - 14%!! Could end up higher, could end up lower. The data isn't perfect, but those are the numbers we have. Feel free to point me to a larger or better data set.

From the numbers, it would appear that we have at most a single digit percentage of Americans that have been infected, and that's been enough to kill 85,000 people. (We know from the tests we are doing that ~10% of them are coming back positive. So 90% of high risk people don't have it, and the general population would be even higher than that. There is a lot of bias - you aren't going to go out and get a swab test if you haven't left your house in 2 months.)

Let's make some assumptions though -
  • 6.8% is correct. We open everything anyway, 70% of the country gets infected, 16 million people die.
  • 6.8 % is correct, and you can get Covid more that once. We open everything anyway, 24 million people die.
  • Virus is 10x more widespread than the numbers we have, we open the country, 70% infection rate, 1.6 million people die.
  • We decide to use more severe quarantines immediately whenever cases start increasing (as demonstrated last month, they work). 100,000 more people die. This either goes on forever, or until we find a medical solution.
 
tcco94 said:
Omni window is open as well for a limited time
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I was thinking about that, the problem with a going someplace with considerably lower pay (and more importantly, less retirement contribution) is that every day early I go the more the decision costs me. Breeze makes sense because they're months and months from operating an airplane. Omni not so much. Even if I were lucky enough to get hired there, I wouldn't want to go until I at least saw my name on a furlough list.


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Medical solution: Press release drops Monday. (Centivax is the company featured in the Netflix documentary 'Pandemic')




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drunkenbeagle said:
I totally agree we are way behind on testing. Any solution will require orders of magnitude more than we are currently doing.

The CDC and John's Hopkins are the best numbers we have. We aren't doing widespread surveillance testing of antibodies or swab tests (according to the CDC), so who knows how common it is? 6.8% is what the data says. Many countries are seeing case fatality rates much higher than that - 12 - 14%!! Could end up higher, could end up lower. The data isn't perfect, but those are the numbers we have. Feel free to point me to a larger or better data set.

From the numbers, it would appear that we have at most a single digit percentage of Americans that have been infected, and that's been enough to kill 85,000 people. (We know from the tests we are doing that ~10% of them are coming back positive. So 90% of high risk people don't have it, and the general population would be even higher than that. There is a lot of bias - you aren't going to go out and get a swab test if you haven't left your house in 2 months.)

Let's make some assumptions though -
  • 6.8% is correct. We open everything anyway, 70% of the country gets infected, 16 million people die.
  • 6.8 % is correct, and you can get Covid more that once. We open everything anyway, 24 million people die.
  • Virus is 10x more widespread than the numbers we have, we open the country, 70% infection rate, 1.6 million people die.
  • We decide to use more severe quarantines immediately whenever cases start increasing (as demonstrated last month, they work). 100,000 more people die. This either goes on forever, or until we find a medical solution.
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The data we have says a lot more than 1% of the population have had it, and it's a lot more than 10x as widespread. But you know this.
 
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