Furlough Estimates

drunkenbeagle said:
I totally agree we are way behind on testing. Any solution will require orders of magnitude more than we are currently doing.

The CDC and John's Hopkins are the best numbers we have. We aren't doing widespread surveillance testing of antibodies or swab tests (according to the CDC), so who knows how common it is? 6.8% is what the data says. Many countries are seeing case fatality rates much higher than that - 12 - 14%!! Could end up higher, could end up lower. The data isn't perfect, but those are the numbers we have. Feel free to point me to a larger or better data set.

From the numbers, it would appear that we have at most a single digit percentage of Americans that have been infected, and that's been enough to kill 85,000 people. (We know from the tests we are doing that ~10% of them are coming back positive. So 90% of high risk people don't have it, and the general population would be even higher than that. There is a lot of bias - you aren't going to go out and get a swab test if you haven't left your house in 2 months.)

Let's make some assumptions though -
  • 6.8% is correct. We open everything anyway, 70% of the country gets infected, 16 million people die.
  • 6.8 % is correct, and you can get Covid more that once. We open everything anyway, 24 million people die.
  • Virus is 10x more widespread than the numbers we have, we open the country, 70% infection rate, 1.6 million people die.
  • We decide to use more severe quarantines immediately whenever cases start increasing (as demonstrated last month, they work). 100,000 more people die. This either goes on forever, or until we find a medical solution.
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Show me countries that have that death rate and show me how many tests they've completed. Some countries only test the extremely sick. You've missed the point and now are saying it could have up to 14% death rate. All while trying to explain how infectious this is and then saying "BUT NOT MANY HAVE IT". Come on, man!! It's like so ironic it's comical.

You're telling me how easily this virus spreads, how infectious it is but then argue the fatality can only be based on who's tested positive. Despite the fact that we have anti body rest, studies, know this virus can go without ANY symptoms... I mean WTF.

I've read your stuff a long time on these forums and honestly I feel like you're a lot smarter than the doom you're trying to push right now.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
From what I’m seeing in the media, there is a fear based campaign to keep people out of airplanes. Tales of packed flights and immunologists who swear they were sickened with the ‘rona.

I was hopeful I wouldn’t be out of a job for too long. But with a public campaign to kill off the airlines, I’m now certain I’ll be unemployed for years. If not 5-10 years.

...
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BEEF SUPREME said:
It's been the best part of my career so far. I've really enjoyed it. After seeing a coordinated campaign in the media to destroy the aviation industry over fears of the 'rona burrowing into your eye holes on overfull airplanes, when the average flight at Eskimo has 80+ open seats. ...
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I’m trying to figure out why there would even be such a “campaign”. Who would benefit? What’s the motivation?
 
SteveC said:
I’m trying to figure out why there would even be such a “campaign”. Who would benefit? What’s the motivation?
Click to expand...

I dunno. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist. I just notice trends in the media. It was a trend for about the last week. Thankfully I didn’t notice much airline hate on the daily news feed today.

So there’s that...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I totally agree we are way behind on testing. Any solution will require orders of magnitude more than we are currently doing.

The CDC and John's Hopkins are the best numbers we have. We aren't doing widespread surveillance testing of antibodies or swab tests (according to the CDC), so who knows how common it is? 6.8% is what the data says. Many countries are seeing case fatality rates much higher than that - 12 - 14%!! Could end up higher, could end up lower. The data isn't perfect, but those are the numbers we have. Feel free to point me to a larger or better data set.

From the numbers, it would appear that we have at most a single digit percentage of Americans that have been infected, and that's been enough to kill 85,000 people. (We know from the tests we are doing that ~10% of them are coming back positive. So 90% of high risk people don't have it, and the general population would be even higher than that. There is a lot of bias - you aren't going to go out and get a swab test if you haven't left your house in 2 months.)

Let's make some assumptions though -
  • 6.8% is correct. We open everything anyway, 70% of the country gets infected, 16 million people die.
  • 6.8 % is correct, and you can get Covid more that once. We open everything anyway, 24 million people die.
  • Virus is 10x more widespread than the numbers we have, we open the country, 70% infection rate, 1.6 million people die.
  • We decide to use more severe quarantines immediately whenever cases start increasing (as demonstrated last month, they work). 100,000 more people die. This either goes on forever, or until we find a medical solution.
Click to expand...

I'm convinced.

Shut down the entire world and let's go into a prolonged economic depression where famine, suicide, violence, and war cause a fatality rate that eclipses the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Great idea!!

Does Africa shutdown over Malaria by the way? Kills more than 400,000 people/year and yet they still go on with life.

Take a look at the worldometer:

www.worldometers.info

Worldometer - real time world statistics

Live world statistics on population, government and economics, society and media, environment, food, water, energy and health.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

When the global population or birth/death rate ratio starts to decrease I might get concerned. Until then I am going to trust my immune system and lifelong health habits to protect me.

Educate yourself. Unless you're one of the obese Americans who hasn't taken care of their body this virus is not a big deal. Sorry, but lifestyle choices have a way of coming back to haunt people.

Watch Medcram updates 32, 35, 59, 65, 66, 67, 69, and 70. There are things you can to do improve your bodies immune response for this virus (and others).

Take some common sense precautions to avoid getting infected, or avoid getting a large viral load, but society has to get back to some semblance of normal or our industry in particular will suffer greatly. In turn, we will all suffer in some form or fashion and our dream of a career in aviation and being able to provide for our family's future is toast.

Spouting alarmist projections is not helping matters.
 
tcco94 said:
I've read your stuff a long time on these forums and honestly I feel like you're a lot smarter than the doom you're trying to push right now.
Click to expand...

Not sure I'm that smart, analyzing data is just my day job. And I certainly didn't intend to say the world is doomed. Life doesn't need to be miserable to solve the problem, I'm dealing with it like everyone else, and it honestly isn't that horrible. It just isn't going to be like it used to be for a while.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I totally agree we are way behind on testing. Any solution will require orders of magnitude more than we are currently doing.

The CDC and John's Hopkins are the best numbers we have. We aren't doing widespread surveillance testing of antibodies or swab tests (according to the CDC), so who knows how common it is? 6.8% is what the data says. Many countries are seeing case fatality rates much higher than that - 12 - 14%!! Could end up higher, could end up lower. The data isn't perfect, but those are the numbers we have. Feel free to point me to a larger or better data set.

From the numbers, it would appear that we have at most a single digit percentage of Americans that have been infected, and that's been enough to kill 85,000 people. (We know from the tests we are doing that ~10% of them are coming back positive. So 90% of high risk people don't have it, and the general population would be even higher than that. There is a lot of bias - you aren't going to go out and get a swab test if you haven't left your house in 2 months.)

Let's make some assumptions though -
  • 6.8% is correct. We open everything anyway, 70% of the country gets infected, 16 million people die.
  • 6.8 % is correct, and you can get Covid more that once. We open everything anyway, 24 million people die.
  • Virus is 10x more widespread than the numbers we have, we open the country, 70% infection rate, 1.6 million people die.
  • We decide to use more severe quarantines immediately whenever cases start increasing (as demonstrated last month, they work). 100,000 more people die. This either goes on forever, or until we find a medical solution.
Click to expand...

Talk like this will continue until the paycheck and unemployment $ stops coming in, and the savings are dried to zero.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I dunno. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist. I just notice trends in the media. It was a trend for about the last week. Thankfully I didn’t notice much airline hate on the daily news feed today.

So there’s that...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That’s what you’ve got?

”My days of not taking you seriously are coming to a middle.”
 
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drunkenbeagle said:
Not sure I'm that smart, analyzing data is just my day job. And I certainly didn't intend to say the world is doomed. Life doesn't need to be miserable to solve the problem, I'm dealing with it like everyone else, and it honestly isn't that horrible. It just isn't going to be like it used to be for a while.
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Fair enough, I agree. We have a new normal for a while.
 
tcco94 said:
Fair enough, I agree. We have a new normal for a while.
Click to expand...

It's like anything else that sucks. If you half ass it, it's going to take longer to truly get through the other side. Had we taken this seriously from the beginning, we might be coming out the other side like a lot of places are. Instead, we're here still pretending that facts are optional and feelings are more important.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
It's like anything else that sucks. If you half ass it, it's going to take longer to truly get through the other side. Had we taken this seriously from the beginning, we might be coming out the other side like a lot of places are. Instead, we're here still pretending that facts are optional and feelings are more important.
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Yup. Which is why Trump was called a racist for stopping travel from China and later Europe, and why NYC (the epicenter in this country) mayor De Bolical told people to go to China town and support Chinese restaurants. All this while the virus was rampantly spreading.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
We will tax and spend our way out of it, like all big problems. Buy some more gold? :)
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Crap. Now we’re going to have to talk about hyperinflation for 3 pages.

I’m really liking Derg’s approach. Deep breaths. Patience. Wait and see. It’s going to be better than we fear, but worse than we hope.

Some of you I’m pretty sure are getting big ole rona-boners from all the fear porn. Everybody reacts differently to stress and I’m not judging, but you should have that looked at.


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SquatThrust said:
Point of clarification re: Doomers. Doomers come in two flavors:

Medical Doomers: THERE WILL BE OVER 9,000,000 DEAD!
Economic Doomers: WE WILL ALL BE EATING GRASS FOR THE NEXT MILLENIA!

Not everyone is a doomer. Some people though are especially tasty and come in both flavors.
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Those are doomers. Yet I'm labeled a sociopath for saying that we're gonna have 500,000-1.2 million dead Americans and just accept it and move on with our lives.
 
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