Furlough Estimates

Crop Duster said:
"Normal"?? Viruses are the normal state of biology, our biosphere, and our evolution. They have been for Eons, probably from the very beginning. Essentially, they are pure information.

Our pre-covid economic delusion of never-ending cancerous growth?... that was the anomaly. Get some proper historical/scientific/and non-common sense perspective!!
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z987k said:
Honestly with the devastation that could cause, someone should bomb both the US and Russian locations where it's held. Like maybe a 3rd party country. Nuke it from orbit. I'd rather see actual nukes fly than smallpox become wild again. At least with the nukes it'd stop shortly after it started and only a few hundred million would be dead.
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Unfortunately, modern advances and techniques like CRISPR have largely let the genie out of the bottle. Synthesizing viruses is now something individuals can do on a small budget.
 
z987k said:
Honestly with the devastation that could cause, someone should bomb both the US and Russian locations where it's held. Like maybe a 3rd party country. Nuke it from orbit. I'd rather see actual nukes fly than smallpox become wild again. At least with the nukes it'd stop shortly after it started and only a few hundred million would be dead.
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Dude, if we lived in balance with nature... even small pox would not be that big a deal. Farm kids don't really get small pox 'cause they've been exposed to cow pox. It's all balance. Most pilots... not all... but most pilots don't have a difficulty understanding the criticality of balance in an airplane. It vexes me why they have such difficulty in understanding its criticality in life.

I've never been particularly frightened by Covid... I'm frightened every day by the uninformed arrogance of humans.

Aviation analogy:

Don't be scared to fly on an airliner. Be scared to ride on an airliner "flown" by dudes getting paid to play pilots on youtube. Never forget that these days, "advanced pilot training" consists of teaching pilots that the primary method to recover from a stall is to push the stick.
 
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tcco94 said:
Sure it will and how long did that 08 recession, the great recession!!!, take to recover from? As far as discretionary income vacationers and business travellers rebounding? That was a lot better than what people were saying going into it. So again I think 3 years, vaccine, and we are a lot better economical position as well. Not saying it's 2019 pax levels.
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The Great Recession was a cakewalk compared to this.

drunkenbeagle said:
Unless or until some treatment is found that improves the case fatality rate by an order of magnitude, we won't have any better options.
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The fatality rate is low enough that we shouldn’t be doing anything at all except advising high risk people to stay home if they want to.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I haven't stated a timeline until now. It was because I felt hopeful.

Now I know this will be disaster level. Like find a different career level.
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You said in the beginning that you enjoyed flying the 737 and hope you get to fly one again. Now it's you need a new career? Forever? I mean this is on par with whoever was telling me we don't need pilots in 40 years. Is that much doom really necessary over furloughs?

I really need to go back and read the forums in 2008. Must have been an absolute *show.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
Of 4.4 million worldwide cases, 304,000 people have died[1]. That's 6.8%. Which is riskier than climbing Mount Everest (6.5%), attempting suicide (3.5%), or dying from a shark that bit you (3.8%).

[1] COVID-19 Map
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Come on - we haven't had the testing capability to know how many cases are actually out there. Look at NY anti body test study. This thing won't even have a 1% death rate when it's said and done and we know how many tens of millions have already had the virus. Countries (us included) are very behind on testing. And let's not even discuss states like Connecticut where 60% of their deaths come from long term care facilities.

I know you know this and that the fatality is not actually 6.8%. That argument was valid in March but honestly no one believes it anymore.
 
tcco94 said:
Come on - we haven't had the testing capability to know how many cases are actually out there. Look at NY anti body test study. This thing won't even have a 1% death rate when it's said and done and we know how many tens of millions have already had the virus. Countries (us included) are very behind on testing. And let's not even discuss states like Connecticut where 60% of their deaths come from long term care facilities.

I know you know this and that the fatality is not actually 6.8%. That argument was valid in March but honestly no one believes it anymore.
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That argument wasn't valid in March either. The Doomers were just too scared to think rationally.
 
tcco94 said:
You said in the beginning that you enjoyed flying the 737 and hope you get to fly one again. Now it's you need a new career? Forever? I mean this is on par with whoever was telling me we don't need pilots in 40 years. Is that much doom really necessary over furloughs?

I really need to go back and read the forums in 2008. Must have been an absolute *show.
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It's been the best part of my career so far. I've really enjoyed it. After seeing a coordinated campaign in the media to destroy the aviation industry over fears of the 'rona burrowing into your eye holes on overfull airplanes, when the average flight at Eskimo has 80+ open seats. Welp. Yeah I'm convinced I probably won't see the pointy part of an airplane for a long time after December 1 2020.

I'll probably need to find something to do for money over the following years no? I have to pay bills somehow yes? What do I do when I get furloughed until I get a recall letter?

I find a new job.
 
tcco94 said:
...how long did that 08 recession, the great recession!!!, take to recover from? As far as discretionary income vacationers and business travellers rebounding? That was a lot better than what people were saying going into it.
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Dude, you totally forgot to add... "Thanks, Obama!"
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
It's been the best part of my career so far. I've really enjoyed it. After seeing a coordinated campaign in the media to destroy the aviation industry over fears of the 'rona burrowing into your eye holes on overfull airplanes, when the average flight at Eskimo has 80+ open seats. Welp. Yeah I'm convinced I probably won't see the pointy part of an airplane for a long time after December 1 2020.

I'll probably need to find something to do for money over the following years no? I have to pay bills somehow yes? What do I do when I get furloughed until I get a recall letter?

I find a new job.
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The media targeting us? C'mon dude that just isn't reality. Do they suck at aviation reporting in general? Yep. Hype some sweet clickbait headlines? Yep. But a coordinated campaign? Nah.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
It's been the best part of my career so far. I've really enjoyed it. After seeing a coordinated campaign in the media to destroy the aviation industry over fears of the 'rona burrowing into your eye holes on overfull airplanes, when the average flight at Eskimo has 80+ open seats. Welp. Yeah I'm convinced I probably won't see the pointy part of an airplane for a long time after December 1 2020.

I'll probably need to find something to do for money over the following years no? I have to pay bills somehow yes? What do I do when I get furloughed until I get a recall letter?

I find a new job.
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My mistake then, It sounded like you were writing off this career to move onto another and never have an opportunity to fly again. I know we work at different airlines and the outlook of the next 10 years is different, but I still believe you'll get a callback.
 
NickH said:
The unemployment rate during the 2008 recession peaked around 10%. The current unemployment rate is twice that and rising. If there are jobs that people can return to quickly, the damage will be mitigated. But 'Great Depression 2' is probably inevitable, at this point.
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I wonder what the number is of how many have jobs to return to and how many are taking in the extra benefit of unemployment thanks to the stimulus package. Which I believe ends in June.
 
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