Furlough Estimates

Ayork62493 said:
Wonder what will end up being competitive?
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before the 'Rona, the last few interview groups included mostly Regional CA's and Prior-Mil pilots, hovering between 1000-3000 TPIC, TT varied. most had a BA and lots of extra curricular titles (CKA, ACP, etc)

I have heard that they were thinking about preferential interviews for furloughed Regional pilots, (expressjet) but that was a while ago and probably an outdated rumor.

I still keep hearing ~300+ pilots being hired this year. we have 16 a/c being delivered with 7 returns 2 older 320's and the rest of the 319's) so a net gain of 9 a/c along with the remaining 11 a/c in "storage" at ROW being returned this spring. So essentially 20 a/c being added to service this year. All-in-All it's good news!
 
SteveC said:
I’ll speak slowly...the trials are designed to scientifically give the same level of confidence that you have now achieved anecdotally. Congratulations!
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I’ll speak even slower. The process was rushed and didn’t meet the regular process for trials and data for a regular use approval. Hence the emergency use authorization (EUA).
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I’ll speak even slower. The process was rushed and didn’t meet the regular process for trials and data for a regular use approval. Hence the emergency use authorization (EUA).
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The trials that were used and granted EUA, were scientifically designed to give the same (actually better) level of confidence than you achieved anecdotally.

Are the risk levels higher than the typical long term trials...of course they are. BUT, the scientists, statisticians, and other experts determined that those elevated risk levels were still well within acceptable limits. One would think that a degree in a STEM field would give someone a modicum of understanding of how science works, and faith in the outcomes that it generates.
 
SteveC said:
The trials that were used and granted EUA, were scientifically designed to give the same (actually better) level of confidence than you achieved anecdotally.

Are the risk levels higher than the typical long term trials...of course they are. BUT, the scientists, statisticians, and other experts determined that those elevated risk levels were still well within acceptable limits. One would think that a degree in a STEM field would give someone a modicum of understanding of how science works, and faith in the outcomes that it generates.
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And long term trials would show any potential risks that aren’t seen now. I have an understanding of how it works, are you really arguing a regular approval versus EUA?

www.fda.gov

Emergency Use Authorization for Vaccines Explained

FDA explains the Emergency Use Authorization for Vaccines
www.fda.gov www.fda.gov

“What are the plans for continued monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines authorized by FDA for emergency use?

FDA expects vaccine manufacturers to include in their EUA requests a plan for active follow-up for safety, including deaths, hospitalizations, and other serious or clinically significant adverse events, among individuals who receive the vaccine under an EUA, to inform ongoing benefit-risk determinations to support continuation of the EUA.

FDA also expects manufacturers who receive an EUA to continue their clinical trials to obtain additional safety and effectiveness information and pursue licensure (approval).”
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
And long term trials would show any potential risks that aren’t seen now. I have an understanding of how it works, are you really arguing a regular approval versus EUA?
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Of course I am not arguing the difference between the two, on the contrary.

What I am questioning is why you have changed your mind? Why was the EUA a few weeks ago too risky for you personally, and now it’s not?

You are certainly not using science in your decision making process. You have outlined your non-scientific reason for delaying taking the vaccine. Then you outlined your non-scientific reason for changing your mind.

How can you possibly disagree with my contention that you fail science?
 
SteveC said:
Of course I am not arguing the difference between the two, on the contrary.

What I am questioning is why you have changed your mind? Why was the EUA a few weeks ago too risky for you personally, and now it’s not?

You are certainly not using science in your decision making process. You have outlined your non-scientific reason for delaying taking the vaccine. Then you outlined your non-scientific reason for changing your mind.

How can you possibly disagree with my contention that you fail science?
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Oh. Well I don’t think you liked my answer. Last year they were on the fence for taking the vaccine shot ASAP. Now they’re onboard and explained to me why, and that I should take it too ASAP. That’s the father and older brother, I trust them with my life, and changed my opinion based on them. And not to mention at this point with drastically increasing cases and deaths, I do think the benefits outweigh the risks. This third wave has been terrible.
 
Guys, I’m not gonna hit the button to see CC’s logic, but if:
-someone isn’t comfortable taking the covid vax because of its EUA status and lack of long term data, I’m not gonna mock them about it. I generally disagree with their decision, but if it’s not based in weirdo conspiracy theories it’s certainly a valid position to take.

-if said person changes their mind after a bunch of their friends take it, regardless of how reasonable that chain of logic may or may not be, I think the adult thing to do is take the W and move on with life.
 
Roger Roger said:
-if said person changes their mind after a bunch of their friends take it, regardless of how reasonable that chain of logic may or may not be, I think the adult thing to do is take the W and move on with life.
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Exactly, I think a lot of the concerns people have about the vaccine are likely to go away one a large number of people have received it without any ill effects. In the meantime, more doses for those of us who want to get it as soon as possible.
 
CFIT99 said:
before the 'Rona, the last few interview groups included mostly Regional CA's and Prior-Mil pilots, hovering between 1000-3000 TPIC, TT varied. most had a BA and lots of extra curricular titles (CKA, ACP, etc)

I have heard that they were thinking about preferential interviews for furloughed Regional pilots, (expressjet) but that was a while ago and probably an outdated rumor.

I still keep hearing ~300+ pilots being hired this year. we have 16 a/c being delivered with 7 returns 2 older 320's and the rest of the 319's) so a net gain of 9 a/c along with the remaining 11 a/c in "storage" at ROW being returned this spring. So essentially 20 a/c being added to service this year. All-in-All it's good news!
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I fit in that demographic. I have a few internals there. Fingers crossed!
 
Yakob said:
Exactly, I think a lot of the concerns people have about the vaccine are likely to go away one a large number of people have received it without any ill effects. In the meantime, more doses for those of us who want to get it as soon as possible.
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Realistically, they were probably never going to take it anyway. The amount of people that I know that purposely don't get a flu shot blows my mind.
 
WaterRooster said:
You would be surprised how many people I run into that when I tell them I’m ORD based with Frontier, they look at me with a tilt of the head and say I thought Frontier only had a DEN base. Then they tell me how they would still rather wait for a Legacy job to come around.
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Yup.

There are still people at regionals that will say the same. "I haven't spent xx years here to end up at a place like Frontier (or Spirit, JetBlue, etc)."
 
Same. SO MANY jumpseat rides on AA with the F/O telling me why going back to the right seat at first year pay, being on probation with 0 seniority would be a great career move. I found that when I was a commuting F/O, it was usually the Captains telling me why I should try to get on at insert legacy here. (They weren't wrong, mind you. It just never worked out). As a commuting Captain, it was 9 rides out of 10 that the F/O was telling me that now with some PIC time I could get hired at AA, like "bruh...."

All y'all at Skyweezy go ahead and wait for that job at Delta, though.
 
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