Flew with guys that said the very same thing. I'd always retort with a "well ya never know do ya?". Good thing I only buy discounted bicycles and not boats/planes.
We doing this again?
I'm not dismissing his experience, just curious why we are repeating his opinion over and over when he has absolutely nothing invested in this industry anymore. That's like calling in the MEC from 20 years ago and saying "when will I get my job back" like they have any idea other than an opinion.
Passenger traffic, in year over year terms is at or above 30% every day of the week except Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and is currently growing very slowly. That's not terribly encouraging, but your assertions are false. Year over year passenger percentages were growing quite nicely until the big summer new case percentages exploded which shows that demand is there but got held down by America's poor hygiene and fear. Now that is subsiding really nicely. We also have a better idea of just how likely one is to get the virus on an airplane which is roughly 1/2 of the probability that you'll be struck by lightning in your lifetime. Unfortunately, we are facing a traditionally weak time of year for passenger traffic so absolute passenger numbers are going to suuuuck in October and November. There is no denying that. However, there is no reason to believe that international travel won't be opening soon or that people armed with more knowledge and less fear won't be traveling next year. The tristate quarantine list just got pared back 10% this week, and it's going to continue to shrink. I know you'll come back with "but the economy at large is going to be in a serious depression and nobody will have any money and hyperinflation is going to suffocate us." OK. I'll come back with American GDP will grow in Q4 2020. The Fed addressed inflation yesterday. It's a real thing. Remember when you told everybody in March or April to borrow as much money as possible because of hyperinflation? How's that working out?