There was a good tick up in demand back in June before case counts started to rise again. You just never know. I’m in the camp of I have no idea what the next few years will look like, and that’s ok too.
Furlough Estimates
- Thread starter ZapBrannigan
- Start date
There was a good tick up in demand back in June before case counts started to rise again. You just never know. I’m in the camp of I have no idea what the next few years will look like, and that’s ok too.
GypsyPilot
Mohawk Town
You really think international travel will be opening soon? What are you basing that on? I would absolutely be one of the first to book a business class ticket to go fly somewhere internationally for pleasure, but I don't see that happening until well into 2021.
jtrain609
Antisocial Monster
He HAD experience that is more than a decade out of date, and the only thing that experience got him was recalled.
There is a wealth of union knowledge and experience here, but it ain't him.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
This simply isn't true. You can look at yesterday's numbers. They were at 25%. That's a Thursday.
No, I told people to borrow as much as possible because the furloughs were coming. I didn't reference hyperinflation in that recommendation. And I was right. The furloughs are here, and they're worse than I predicted at the time.
I won't attack your service, because it's the one thing about you that I find admirable. Thank you for contributing your time to the profession and your fellow pilots.
As to my own experience, I served for a dozen years in a variety of union positions. That experience is now five years out of date, not a decade, but who's counting? I wouldn't dismiss Captain Woerth's opinion just because his experience is fourteen years out of date, but hey, that's just me.
It is true that I was recalled from my MEC Officer position due a disagreement with the MEC and the Merger Committee over how the merger negotiations were proceeding. I believe my position on that was later vindicated in how the merger worked out, but some would disagree. It's worth noting that the very same MEC who recalled me then elected me to the Executive Administrator position (a position they created just to bring me back into the leadership) just two months after the recall, and then unanimously re-elected me as Executive Vice President at the national level shortly after that.
So, I would say that your comment that "the only thing that experience got him was recalled" is a bit inaccurate. Personally, I found my union work to be the most rewarding thing I've done in my life, and I doubt my view on that will change. I may make a lot more money now, but getting someone their disability benefits when the company is trying to deny them, or saving someone's career, or stopping a violation of USERRA, etc. is much more important and personally rewarding work. I do miss it a great deal. I would encourage every pilot to get involved at some level. There will be times when you think it sucks (like getting recalled), but overall, you won't regret the time and effort you spend on volunteering for your union and your fellow pilots.
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
While I agree with you, I FIFY; to me the real problem we will have for the duration is the failure to contain the virus, without which the economy and especially our industry cannot function. PSP 2 is a nice bandaid for sure, but there is no economy until the virus is contained.
Flyinthrew
Well-Known Member
I don’t know man. You’re probably much more plugged into the whole scene than I am. “Soon” is most certainly relative, but I find it impossible to believe downward pressure is going to prevail over commerce, tourism, and marketing efforts through the next 6 months as long as the infection curve doesn’t reverse direction. There is no question that America has sucked at handling the pandemic, but that’s starting to be in the past. I’m throwing some graphs in below showing new case counts. It got bad over the summer when travel should have been recovering, but we are getting considerably better, and we are getting it under control. Whether by social pressure or regulation or by nature doing what nature does, it’s getting better in America. Add in vaccines, positive marketing, and public awareness that life is getting better, and the pressure on the travel industry will be upward. We’re not out of the woods, but I’m optimistic. Realistic, but optimistic.
Here’s a non-opinion piece from CNN. Science prevails.
The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say
According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
www.cnn.com
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SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
You keep referencing how badly we're handling things here, and acting as though things will improve when the virus situation improves a little bit, but take a look at Asian passenger traffic levels. The situation has been much better in Asia for months now. Yet just a month ago, the Asian airlines reported that their traffic was down 98% compared to a year ago. Of the few flights they're flying, load factors are at 35%. This isn't a story about how poorly the United States is managing the virus. This is a global economic catastrophe.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
Flyinthrew
Well-Known Member
OK. Yesterday was just a little over 28%. I’m going to go with a major hurricane ripping through the US canceling over 500 flights as the culprit. Go look at year over year percentages for the last month. It’s slow and steady up to the low 30s every day of the week except Tuesday and Wednesday. Still not great, but accuracy matters.
Dude, I work hard not to insult people here, because I like almost all of you, but on what planet is this a good idea for the average family that’s losing its income? You absolutely were referencing hyperinflation when you made those comments. I’m not faulting you for it. Everybody was really emotional in April. The observation here is that you haven’t really come down from it. Everybody is by and large very sober and realistic now, but you’re really harshing the mellow and it’s not helpful.
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Another major factor going forward is what happens with the spread of COVID-19 this fall, winter. Since "flu season" is approaching with the environmental conditions to support widespread transmission of viruses, are we going to see a resurgence of cases, hospitalizations? That could be a major setback. I'm not a virologist, I don't know jack about whether the virus is mutating, if it's becoming stronger/weaker, how long antibodies from those infected last to fend off getting the virus yet again, etc. Does anyone have any insights on what's being forecasted? I'm really hoping we're not going to see another significant resurgence and we'll be locked down yet again. I'm genuinely concerned that this industry hasn't seen the worst yet since we're still in pandemic limbo.
As far as vaccines go, there's a handful in process. There's this website, RAPS, which has a vaccine tracker that is interesting to see what is progressing. An interesting blurb contained within the article states "The US government has chosen three vaccine candidates to fund for Phase 3 trials under Operation Warp Speed: Moderna’s mRNA-1273, The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222, and Pfizer and BioNTech's BNT162. Members of ACTIV have suggested developing safe controlled human infection models (CHIMs) for human trials could take 1-2 years. A sponsor would need to provide data from placebo-controlled trials indicating their vaccine is at least 50% effective against COVID-19 in order to be authorized for use, according to FDA guidance issued and effective 30 June." I'll believe it when I see it, but it'd be impressive if they could produce a vaccine as quickly as the American public is hoping for.
As far as vaccines go, there's a handful in process. There's this website, RAPS, which has a vaccine tracker that is interesting to see what is progressing. An interesting blurb contained within the article states "The US government has chosen three vaccine candidates to fund for Phase 3 trials under Operation Warp Speed: Moderna’s mRNA-1273, The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222, and Pfizer and BioNTech's BNT162. Members of ACTIV have suggested developing safe controlled human infection models (CHIMs) for human trials could take 1-2 years. A sponsor would need to provide data from placebo-controlled trials indicating their vaccine is at least 50% effective against COVID-19 in order to be authorized for use, according to FDA guidance issued and effective 30 June." I'll believe it when I see it, but it'd be impressive if they could produce a vaccine as quickly as the American public is hoping for.
arkflyr
Well-Known Member
Here is some data from A4A, note that Zoom is now worth more than all US airlines combined.
I also found it interesting that total employment in the industry hasn’t caught up with pre-9/11 levels yet before the COVID-19 crisis, I’m guessing that is a good example of what all the consolidation has brought for the industry.
I also found it interesting that total employment in the industry hasn’t caught up with pre-9/11 levels yet before the COVID-19 crisis, I’m guessing that is a good example of what all the consolidation has brought for the industry.
tcco94
Future GTA VI Pilot
Where are they going to fly other than within their countries. You act like the world is open for everyone. Why bother talking these numbers now? You know your "projection" numbers you had months ago were already wrong. Oh wait, doesn't fit the doomsday rhetoric you have, does it?
Flyinthrew
Well-Known Member
If I don’t reference how bad we’re doing in America, then everybody will just pile on with “well travel will come back but not to America because we suck”. I hear you, but I know where the conversation would go if I didn’t shape it in the direction I did.
Also, here’s a link to a BBC News story (reputable) published yesterday pointing to full recovery of domestic departures in China. It’s based on aggressive fare pricing and marketing (who knows what the load factors are), but we’re talking about standing networks back up and getting bookings and this is how it is going to happen.
Coronavirus: Flights within China to 'fully recover' next month
Domestic flights are expected to be back to normal soon as air fares are cut and demand rises.
www.bbc.com
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It has been a rough week for many in the airline industry. There are still a lot of resources out there for those interested in pursuing other flying opportunities. Most of us are aware of the cargo companies currently hiring, but there are a lot of corporate and fractional operations that are still looking for qualified pilots. It may require a set duration commitment to the associated employer, but most airlines allow for a deferred return to work after being recalled from furlough. I found useful information at Corporate/Charter | Airline Pilot Careers, which has some pay information as well. Also, there are a lot of local postings at BizJetJobs.com or AvJobs.com for those interested. I hope this is useful for anyone interested. Best of luck everyone.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
That's not accurate, but let's just say it jumped up to 50% by the end of this year. That's extreme optimism. What do you think the effect on the industry would be for next year? How much money would the airlines lose between now and the end of the year? What do you think they would have to do at the beginning of next year to survive?
I really don't think some of you are thinking this through.
It's a good idea for anyone who is concerned with survival rather than credit score.
I am concerned, still, that inflation is going to ramp up significantly. But I don't believe I ever once mentioned inflation as a reason to take out a loan. If you can find a case where I did, I will gladly retract, but I don't believe that you'll find one.
Well, to that I would respond "good." I am intensely concerned that people I care about are not taking this seriously. I think a lot of people on this forum who are friends are going to be out of work for a very long time, and they haven't accepted that reality yet. If you can't accept reality, then you can't prepare for it. And I find that extremely concerning.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
I flew corporate and charter for 15 years and when I was staring down a furlough I sought out a different job. As a bike shop manager.
That’s how bad I wanted to fly 91/135. With 5 corporate jet types, I got a job at a bike shop.
I’m guessing, if I’m lucky I’ll be working there by the end of 2021 because I really wasn’t saved from furlough. Just that the inevitable was delayed.
Except the manager position will have been filled and I’ll just be a wrench/sales guy. Since my idiotic airline left 12% of the EILs on the table.
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Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
It's quite frustrating. With the Fuzz footing the payrolls industrywide for 6 months, I don't know how ANYONE looks at the current situation and goes sunshine and roses and unicorn farts.
edit: though a self-styled "influencer" did tell me it was a "great" time to apply to the Air Line again on instagram.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
I'll add a tiny bit of hope: the government affairs lobbyists in our trade association are slightly more optimistic that a compromise might be reached in Congress that could address some issues. The House has to pass at least a continuing resolution in September to prevent a government shutdown, so the idea is that they'll try to get some sort of compromise put into there for the highest priority items. Not sure if that will include the PSP or not, but it's possible. Or, we could be in such a bad timeline that we're going to add a government shutdown to our woes in 2020. Ugh.
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
It certainly is...troubling for the administration to have such mass unemployment, oddly in a bunch of swing states, right before an election when they're desperate to hang onto power.
Though they could buy me a Model X and give it to me tax free and I would still not support keeping 'em in power.