HobGoblin
Well-Known Member
Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but anyone that was given a WARN letter can bid to take a ZTL if they would otherwise be furloughed? So nobody should be surprised
Furlough Estimates
- Thread starter ZapBrannigan
- Start date
Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but anyone that was given a WARN letter can bid to take a ZTL if they would otherwise be furloughed? So nobody should be surprised
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Is that all he could have held? Could he have held a regular reserve or regular line paying normal guarantee in ANY systemwide base/seat? If so, bid for that first. If not, then you're forced into one of these one month on/off or unpaid lines.
Is that the correct interpretation?
Beefy McGee
Well-Known Member
That's a good point. I forgot about the WARN letter requirements. That would stop the company from sliding the cutoff line up as junior pilots bid one of the options. Eventually the company would hit the total number of WARN letters they sent.
Memories!
I really don’t pay attention either.
I caught an Uber to go to a baseball game in Detroit between trips a few years ago. The Uber driver was literally a flat earth conspiracy nut. Nevermind he’s talking to an airline pilot with long haul experience and a space nerd, his little collection of ”Yeah buts...”, “watch this video”, “people are talking” — he was basically trying to invalidate whatever I had to offer and mask the fact that he was science-illiterate.
Arguing with CC is the same.
“5 x 2 = 10. And if you accept that 10 divided by 5 equals 2, clearly 5 x 2 certainly equals 10
”No... no... no.... it isn’t, that’s your bias, it’s 14. Check out this specious blog... Yower using Delta math, you know how they are LOL”
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
And all that over “Trump is good for the airline industry.”
This has nothing to do with 5x2= 10 or me saying it’s 14. It has to do with him being business-friendly, giving corporate tax breaks, and supporting the airline industry. And if you don’t agree with it, and think Biden would be better for airlines, well then show your math.
DeltaAlphaNovember
Well-Known Member
If you are referring to the AA LOA, no. You are not forced into any zero time line or one month on one month off. It is strictly voluntary. You have to bid it to get it.
Thank you for not only taking the bait, but also proving my point.
so, are you admitting that you would say 5x2=14? And no, I’m not asking if you think that’s the answer, I realize you are smarter than that. I’m asking if you are admitting to being a contrarian?
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
No. Just pointing out it has nothing to do with the math/point he presented.
ClearedForOption
Psychiatric Help 5¢
Story time. I was sitting at dinner with most of the Exec team of our MEC at the time and the then ALPA President - he always called me "you poor bastard" because of my job as comm chair, but that isn't important to this story.
Anyhoo, that day the current President of these United States announced the appointment of the current NMB. The composition would be, two from the (R) side and one from the (D) side of the political spectrum. "Well, that's that. We are *expletive deleted*. We are going to spin it this way; that the former (D) member will help 'guide' the new ones with her experience, but don't expect any air carrier to even think about getting released." Now, even though that is in quotes, don't quote me on it. (Or our former Union President) It was almost 4 years ago and, like all memories, this is my 'emotional memory' of the event and how I have spun the story in many retellings since that day.
The next day at our "rally" when he spoke, I remember hearing the same spin from the night before.
When the NMB was appointed that's when I knew that the nuclear option was off the table. That it would never be allowed to go that far in any negotiation. That changed how negotiations would play out across the industry during the last 4 years. Because, even though the NMB is 'neutral' on paper, it isn't.
No one really knows how the game is played, the art of the trade, how the sausage gets made, we just assume that it happens. And in this case, I was in the room where it happened.
But, the math is clear, the (R) side typically favors management and the (D) side favors labor. Even for middle/upper-middle class professionals (labor) such as us. It's a weird line. And it's illustrated very well in the formal ALPA history (Flying the Line) where in the 1st chapter it says: (paraphrasing again) "Only unionized group to show up to a picket in a Cadillac."
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
I'm not denying that. I meant the business of airlines and which candidate is more friendly to airline companies from a business perspective. The business tax cuts from 35% to 21% helped out management's bottom line big time. We got a $1000 check out of it but the cost savings for airlines was huge.
That said, there is no way D or R as President that ANY big airline is going to get released for strike. Spirit happened ~ 10 yrs ago when they were small almost nobody at the time. 40 planes? Comair happened and we know that story, back then was basically a hindrance out of the CVG and MCO hubs for Delta only. The last "big" airline to be released, wasn't that American Airlines? And the Clinton adminitstration threw the ban hammer via the Presidential Emergency Board. That was a Democratic President.
I know pilots are emotional creatures. But at the big 4, they'd be delusional to think they can strike and bring 20% of the country's capacity to a halt. Not gonna happen. D or R, the PEB is gonna drop the hammer. Similarly, and this ruffles futhers at current Co but there ain't no way in frozen tundra we're ever going to be released to strike and bring to a stop as the sole source of commerce/cargo/travel to several Alaska communities.
The good news is with Covid, you can forget the idea of even striking for years to come. It's survival mode right now for the airlines.
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
Nice Hamilton reference. Well played
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Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
I mean. That *is* a thing.
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
I think I’d better take some of my commentary on this offline; someone, somewhere, will probably be torqued at me for what I really think about it from time to time. But yeah. Anyone who thinks they aren’t labor in this job is an idiot. You aren’t management as a pilot unless you’re, well, a management pilot.
Though I think the biggest shortfall we have, because we can afford to show up to picket in a Cadillac (or Tesla or whatever) is solidarity.
Skåning
Well-Known Member
It doesn’t matter, when the time comes we need the company to think/know we will exercise every option up to and including striking. That’s the only leverage we have.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
With Covid, a strike is the last thing to worry about.
September capacity cuts severe as business travel “non existent”
U.S. airlines keep cutting capacity with business travel almost non-existent (NYSE:ALK)
Airlines have been banking on a modest recovery by December and almost 80% by next summer. Furloughs don’t make sense if they expect travel to pick up and they need pilots. It’s becoming fairly obvious business travel is done for a long time, same with international travel, and polls continue to show many people just ain’t gonna take the vaccine. The doomer in me cant help but think we are hosed for a long time to come. I really hope I’m wrong. It just doesn’t look good. The demand isn’t there. Not at the levels we need.
September capacity cuts severe as business travel “non existent”
U.S. airlines keep cutting capacity with business travel almost non-existent (NYSE:ALK)
Airlines have been banking on a modest recovery by December and almost 80% by next summer. Furloughs don’t make sense if they expect travel to pick up and they need pilots. It’s becoming fairly obvious business travel is done for a long time, same with international travel, and polls continue to show many people just ain’t gonna take the vaccine. The doomer in me cant help but think we are hosed for a long time to come. I really hope I’m wrong. It just doesn’t look good. The demand isn’t there. Not at the levels we need.
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Skåning
Well-Known Member
Yeah sure, but we’re playing the “long game” here. Eye on the prize.
ClearedForOption
Psychiatric Help 5¢
So... #1.) That put money right into management pockets. It effectively went to stock buybacks and wasn't reinvested in the business or growing the businesses. And honestly hurt the industry when it came to the CARES Act. And, IMHO is probably a big reason why CARES II is looking very gloomy for the industry. I hope that congress is able to make a deal and realize that our industry is very important when it comes to the 4th point in the preamble of the US Constitution. I'll leave that at that.
#2.) You may be right, but it's not just about just the strike. Its about the whole flowchart of Section 6. A more labor-friendly NMB means just that. Most of negotiations take place in Direct or Mediated negotiations. Only when you get to an impasse do you go down the rabbit hole of: Binding Arbitration? (Y -> Agreement or N ->) 30 Day cooling off period -> PEB -> Self Help. During the mediated negotiations sessions for instance, what is considered "within the realm of reasonableness" when it comes to proposals and how the Mediator reacts and adapts the negotiations to that (by using their power to set Time, Place, and Agenda) is well within the purview of the leadership within the NMB. (The whole how the sausage is getting made.)
#3.) It is about the long game. It's always about the long game. It has to be about that, over the last 20 years we all witnessed the selfish behavior of a generation who 'got theirs' and was willing to trade away the future for 30 pieces of silverware. The one good thing about being a member of the lost decade is that we are all unified and ready so say, "Nope! That is not happening again." (And it is up to us to teach the newest generation of Aviators about what happened and how not to let it happen again.) The right to withhold our labor through a general strike is ultimately our only power. Every year of my career thus far the corps of professional union busters have chiseled away piece by piece at any tool that we have at our disposal to ensure that we are compensated commiserate with our professional standing and abilities.
I don't expect to be calling for a strike. But the last few years of 'raising the house' have been affected by those political choices. And that will affect agreements for years to come and the starting point when we do turn around from this latest economic crisis.
ClearedForOption
Psychiatric Help 5¢
IMHO, staffing is a function of block hours flown. It's over simplified, but really comes down to that.
You have 'X' #'s of fleets. Each of those fleets fly 'Y' # of block hours.
You are going to need 'A' number of pilots to operate those flights. (The oversimplification is that the block hours account for known absences, vacations, etc.) Then you have to have a reserve buffer of a certain % to ensure completion factor. 7-18%ish depending.
So, what's the cost to furlough a pilot? It depends. What are your training costs? Displacement costs? Severance pay? vs. Keeping the same number of pilots on property till you see a recovery of pre-crisis block hours. Also, what was your staffing model before the crisis? Were you running 'fat' or 'lean' - what was the average pilot flying/crediting? Does your working agreement call for furlough mitigation? What is required?
Management has to look at all of this along with doing their long term planing when deciding to furlough.
What's the break even point after taking into account all the mitigation? Cost of furlough and recall vs. keeping pilots on property.
So, yes, carriers are currently cutting capacity, but they are also looking at forward bookings and trends and I wouldn't trust Seeking Alpha articles for future planning. No one really knows how things are going to play out in the next 365 days, it's a constantly moving picture that has way too many parts to track. We need Hari Seldon figuring this out.
ClearedForOption
Psychiatric Help 5¢
Yes.
I usually have a good Heinlein quote for times like this, but I'm coming up blank.
And instead of writing a rant, I will simply agree. Air Line Pilots are Labor.