Furlough Estimates

ClearedForOption said:
Yes.

I usually have a good Heinlein quote for times like this, but I'm coming up blank.

And instead of writing a rant, I will simply agree. Air Line Pilots are Labor.
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"Citizenship is an attitude, a state of mind, an emotional conviction that the whole is greater than the part...and that the part should be humbly proud to sacrifice itself that the whole may live."
 
ClearedForOption said:
IMHO, staffing is a function of block hours flown. It's over simplified, but really comes down to that.

You have 'X' #'s of fleets. Each of those fleets fly 'Y' # of block hours.

You are going to need 'A' number of pilots to operate those flights. (The oversimplification is that the block hours account for known absences, vacations, etc.) Then you have to have a reserve buffer of a certain % to ensure completion factor. 7-18%ish depending.

So, what's the cost to furlough a pilot? It depends. What are your training costs? Displacement costs? Severance pay? vs. Keeping the same number of pilots on property till you see a recovery of pre-crisis block hours. Also, what was your staffing model before the crisis? Were you running 'fat' or 'lean' - what was the average pilot flying/crediting? Does your working agreement call for furlough mitigation? What is required?

Management has to look at all of this along with doing their long term planing when deciding to furlough.

What's the break even point after taking into account all the mitigation? Cost of furlough and recall vs. keeping pilots on property.

So, yes, carriers are currently cutting capacity, but they are also looking at forward bookings and trends and I wouldn't trust Seeking Alpha articles for future planning. No one really knows how things are going to play out in the next 365 days, it's a constantly moving picture that has way too many parts to track. We need Hari Seldon figuring this out.
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There is no way to predict demand accurately in this pandemic. So they can’t do those math/calculations either. If there’s no Cares 2.0 it’s gonna get ugly fairly quickly for a lot of people.
 
jtrain609 said:
"Citizenship is an attitude, a state of mind, an emotional conviction that the whole is greater than the part...and that the part should be humbly proud to sacrifice itself that the whole may live."
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ASpilot2be said:
Apparently the VP of flight ops told a recurrent groundschool to plan on there being 700 furloughs at Frontier. That's nearly 50% of the pilot group. But this is the same guy that ran Horizon into a giant summer meltdown.
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That metric would have 15+ year DEN captains being downgraded, no?
 
GypsyPilot said:
Wow. Imagine having that weigh on your mind as you try to get through recurrent? What a freaking tool.
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We had an idiot of a DO at PSA once who, during a vote on an absolute BS crj900 payrate addition (that closed on a Tuesday), came in to the crew room and told guys that he'd just updated his resume because if we voted no, we'd be shut down on Wednesday. Terrified a lot of the new guys. We ended up making stickers that said "is it Wednesday yet?"
 
BobDDuck said:
We had an idiot of a DO at PSA once who, during a vote on an absolute BS crj900 payrate addition (that closed on a Tuesday), came in to the crew room and told guys that he'd just updated his resume because if we voted no, we'd be shut down on Wednesday. Terrified a lot of the new guys. We ended up making stickers that said "is it Wednesday yet?"
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I remember seeing those.

He should have know that this is how your v-file gets pooped in.
 
Beefy McGee said:
The victim passed away a few months back. Not sure if you knew him. Retired, then less than a year later, gone.
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He hired me. I flew with him a few times when I was an FO. Made some bad decisions as mec chair, but a nice guy all around.

The worst part was that he didn't even see the defiled vfile. His secretary was the one who went to check it and found the umm... deed.
 
BobDDuck said:
We had an idiot of a DO at PSA once who, during a vote on an absolute BS crj900 payrate addition (that closed on a Tuesday), came in to the crew room and told guys that he'd just updated his resume because if we voted no, we'd be shut down on Wednesday. Terrified a lot of the new guys. We ended up making stickers that said "is it Wednesday yet?"
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Sometimes I think you get to be a management pilot because you're so dumb you really do believe everything management is telling you.
 
Derg said:
If you see him (or her) let them know they’re still my personal hero.

Everyone jokes about doing it, but he put his money where his mouth was and DID IT. Bravo!
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We were watching TV and one of my roommates said “yeah, that was XXXX” with his thumb pointed at XXXX sitting next to him. I didn’t say much but I don’t think they understood how far that story went.
pretty sure I looked like this:
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<sniff> I’m getting all nostalgic for my 13 days at PSA post-IOE.

Funny thing, I finally got a call from Great Lakes on Day 1 of training. They’d been looking for folks to stay on the EAS routes they were taking over. I would have flown the same planes (s/n), but with a different name on the side, AND would have still had a job at the end of July. When was the last time somebody said “I should have left and gone to Great Lakes.”? I checked, there are no CBs over my house....I’m good.

BTW...y’all know what tomorrow is, right?
 
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