Furlough Estimates

Autothrust Blue said:
Um...
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I mean, it is a pretty high percentage. One thing that's good about working for a ULCC when something like"this" happens is that the bottom line has already been found, and not a lot of time and effort has to be wasted cutting costs. Part of that is single fleet type operation, and the efficiencies it brings to the training center. However, that also means that the company can scale a cutback or a regrowth very quickly. So it's probably easier to overcut now than have to run a second furlough/displacement package later on, or to recall somewhat quickly.

Another built in advantage/disadvantage to this model is that there's not a lot of incentive for early retirement packages. Since buying off a senior pilot from a retiring fleet isn't an option, there isn't the cascading training events costs thing, and there's no real incentive for the company to offer a generous early out. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Frontier and Spirit offered one at all. The same things that make us both efficient when times are good make the soft money harder to come by when things get ugly.

I think the ULCC model will emerge from this turmoil in good shape, but between now and then, there are bound to be a few bumps.
 
roundout said:
I mean, it is a pretty high percentage. One thing that's good about working for a ULCC when something like"this" happens is that the bottom line has already been found, and not a lot of time and effort has to be wasted cutting costs. Part of that is single fleet type operation, and the efficiencies it brings to the training center. However, that also means that the company can scale a cutback or a regrowth very quickly. So it's probably easier to overcut now than have to run a second furlough/displacement package later on, or to recall somewhat quickly.

Another built in advantage/disadvantage to this model is that there's not a lot of incentive for early retirement packages. Since buying off a senior pilot from a retiring fleet isn't an option, there isn't the cascading training events costs thing, and there's no real incentive for the company to offer a generous early out. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Frontier and Spirit offered one at all. The same things that make us both efficient when times are good make the soft money harder to come by when things get ugly.

I think the ULCC model will emerge from this turmoil in good shape, but between now and then, there are bound to be a few bumps.
Click to expand...

What‘s furlough pay like at Frontier? Is it comparable to other carriers? Maybe that’s one of the reasons they’re looking cut more than any other airline for now. If it’s not much, then the cost to furlough and the breakeven point isn’t that high.
 
roundout said:
I mean, it is a pretty high percentage. One thing that's good about working for a ULCC when something like"this" happens is that the bottom line has already been found, and not a lot of time and effort has to be wasted cutting costs. Part of that is single fleet type operation, and the efficiencies it brings to the training center. However, that also means that the company can scale a cutback or a regrowth very quickly. So it's probably easier to overcut now than have to run a second furlough/displacement package later on, or to recall somewhat quickly.

Another built in advantage/disadvantage to this model is that there's not a lot of incentive for early retirement packages. Since buying off a senior pilot from a retiring fleet isn't an option, there isn't the cascading training events costs thing, and there's no real incentive for the company to offer a generous early out. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Frontier and Spirit offered one at all. The same things that make us both efficient when times are good make the soft money harder to come by when things get ugly.

I think the ULCC model will emerge from this turmoil in good shape, but between now and then, there are bound to be a few bumps.
Click to expand...
You said it; substantially agreed with your analysis.
 
nuball5 said:
What‘s furlough pay like at Frontier? Is it comparable to other carriers? Maybe that’s one of the reasons they’re looking cut more than any other airline for now. If it’s not much, then the cost to furlough and the breakeven point isn’t that high.
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I'm assuming furlough pay is zero? Could be wrong though.

If you meant to type "first year" yeah, it's substantially lower than second year or any other pay step, just like any other airline. I'm not good at math, and I don't work in HR, but the straight pay alone (not inclusive of cost of medical benefits, people working OT, and whatever else it costs a company to have an employee on payroll) is about 4 first year FOs to 1 topped out Captain. Since the hiring model depended so much on explosive growth, the airline is fat on low-paid FOs.

Someone from the puzzle palace came in to my recurrent ground School last month and indicated that with the ULCC business model, the break-even for a furlough is only 6 months.
 
roundout said:
I'm assuming furlough pay is zero? Could be wrong though.

If you meant to type "first year" yeah, it's substantially lower than second year or any other pay step, just like any other airline. I'm not good at math, and I don't work in HR, but the straight pay alone (not inclusive of cost of medical benefits, people working OT, and whatever else it costs a company to have an employee on payroll) is about 4 first year FOs to 1 topped out Captain. Since the hiring model depended so much on explosive growth, the airline is fat on low-paid FOs.

Someone from the puzzle palace came in to my recurrent ground School last month and indicated that with the ULCC business model, the break-even for a furlough is only 6 months.
Click to expand...

Usually there’s Furlough pay language that’s a bit of a “severance” that’s tied to longevity when a furlough occurs. At frozen north airways for example, I think it’s two months pay if you’ve been here for 2 years, 3 months for 3 years. Etc. Does Frontier have that?
 
roundout said:
I'm assuming furlough pay is zero? Could be wrong though.

If you meant to type "first year" yeah, it's substantially lower than second year or any other pay step, just like any other airline. I'm not good at math, and I don't work in HR, but the straight pay alone (not inclusive of cost of medical benefits, people working OT, and whatever else it costs a company to have an employee on payroll) is about 4 first year FOs to 1 topped out Captain. Since the hiring model depended so much on explosive growth, the airline is fat on low-paid FOs.

Someone from the puzzle palace came in to my recurrent ground School last month and indicated that with the ULCC business model, the break-even for a furlough is only 6 months.
Click to expand...

Furlough pay is typically based on your longevity at the company. Either way, sounds like you guys can bounce back quickly when the need arises.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Um...
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We are furloughing the highest percentage of any US carrier after being told dozens of times that were ready to take market share and run classes of 30 in August...we have 4 more planes to be delivered this year. The FA’s have been offered long term leaves BUT nothing has been offered to the pilots...we knew some kind of furlough was inevitable (around 8-10%) but not 32% ( 63% of the FO’s). I just didn’t add up and everyone was blown away by it.

the email from the union have stated that we have several more tools to use to mitigate furloughs but we have yet to hear from the company
 
CFIT99 said:
We are furloughing the highest percentage of any US carrier after being told dozens of times that were ready to take market share and run classes of 30 in August...we have 4 more planes to be delivered this year. The FA’s have been offered long term leaves BUT nothing has been offered to the pilots...we knew some kind of furlough was inevitable (around 8-10%) but not 32% ( 63% of the FO’s). I just didn’t add up and everyone was blown away by it.

the email from the union have stated that we have several more tools to use to mitigate furloughs but we have yet to hear from the company
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Are you guys ALPA?
 
roundout said:
It's a trap!

Maybe? Wouldn't be the first time that half the office in Denver didn't talk to the other half and some sort of mega-dumb occurred.

I know there are going to be some affected pilots on this board (I mean I'm one of them, I'll be losing my CA seat, but whatever). Anything I can do to help, I will be happy to help.
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You are damn good people.
 
ShortField said:
Usually there’s Furlough pay language that’s a bit of a “severance” that’s tied to longevity when a furlough occurs. At frozen north airways for example, I think it’s two months pay if you’ve been here for 2 years, 3 months for 3 years. Etc. Does Frontier have that?
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I think it's one week per every full year you have been here.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Hey, remember when the UAL MEC was pushing for a national seniority list circa 2008, and nobody would listen to them? Sure would be nice for everyone in the industry if people had listened to them instead of sticking their heads in the sand and pretending that it couldn't happen to them again.
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I was told i was filling out my last resume, and that i was so lucky that i should never forget how lucky I am and SJI is virtually depression proof. And dammit, i believe them.
 
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