Furlough Estimates

Rocketman99 said:
What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.
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I wear a mask. I don’t agree with mandates.

mikecweb said:
It'd actually be closer to being accurate if it was a nurse that barely ever saw patients and is now selling used cars and giving that advice.
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@BEEF SUPREME I don’t like the language you used to describe him, but turns out you’re absolutely right about this guy. My apologies.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.
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You literally created a timeline of dates and pax demands based on those dates. With zero facts and experience and 100% guessing. Honestly I don't think I've ready anyone where say "we are going to be okay" other than people saying, I gotta get through the furlough. Then there's the extremist doomers who are arrogantly acting like they know the future plot, when it literally changes every month for good or bad. But now it's not "hey survive the furlough" it's "airlines are going to chapter 7, one or two airlines, most won't survive bankruptcy, no profit for decades, no demand return, no pilot ever hired again, need 85-90% load factor to churn a profit".

I mean I'm with him on this one, I think people are justifying wanting to leave or have had left the industry or enjoy being pessimistically negative. To sit here and say you've spouted out facts and and experience only is a flat- out lie. But I've never seen you own anything you've been wrong about. I do enjoy just messing around with you, even though we don't know eachother. But I do think some in this thread are really sending some guys already at rock bottom, over the cliff with theories based on your opinion. I know, your opinion is fact and always right.
 
Eagle421flyer said:
I don't always agree with @SlumTodd_Millionaire but he's right on this one. Some of the people at my company aren't even taking it seriously, though they have gotten warn letters. "It's just a warn letter that doesn't mean they will furlough." Its literally in the title Warn, they are trying to Warn you, you are getting furloughed. If they didn't need to furlough they wouldn't send it. Maybe it's the younger crowd whose never been furloughed before? I don't know but apparently the wives are just as delusional as the pilots according to my wife.
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I'm pretty sure this thread is well past the reality of furloughs and WARN letters being scare tactics. I haven't seen that rhetoric in pages.
 
tcco94 said:
You literally created a timeline of dates and pax demands based on those dates. With zero facts and experience and 100% guessing. Honestly I don't think I've ready anyone where say "we are going to be okay" other than people saying, I gotta get through the furlough. Then there's the extremist doomers who are arrogantly acting like they know the future plot, when it literally changes every month for good or bad. But now it's not "hey survive the furlough" it's "airlines are going to chapter 7, one or two airlines, most won't survive bankruptcy, no profit for decades, no demand return, no pilot ever hired again, need 85-90% load factor to churn a profit".

I mean I'm with him on this one, I think people are justifying wanting to leave or have had left the industry or enjoy being pessimistically negative. To sit here and say you've spouted out facts and and experience only is a flat- out lie. But I've never seen you own anything you've been wrong about. I do enjoy just messing around with you, even though we don't know eachother. But I do think some in this thread are really sending some guys already at rock bottom, over the cliff with theories based on your opinion. I know, your opinion is fact and always right.
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Nailed it. I'm too socially retarded to say it that well. My apologies.
 
I've been wanting to write this for a while but figured things would just run their course and everything would be fine. But it's escalating even further and I have to express my opinion about @mikecweb .

BLUF - he's one of the good ones. He really is. If you were to pick ten people to stay and provide value on JC, he'd be one of them.

I haven't talked to Mike in a long while, but I met him back in 2006 or so. He's a dude who will not only faithfully put his head down and work for a goal, he's a guy who will take time out to help anyone interested. Like a lot of folks, he's CFI'd, done night freight, part 135 - you name it. He's probably worked at a lot of places like @BEEF SUPREME has and has most likely experienced a lot of BS along his career path. My uneducated guess on the reason for the current "beef" is the perception that some encountered obstacles and developed or displayed a "woe is me" attitude, where others faced obstacles and drive on with positivity towards their goal. I understand how it can be difficult to read about how someone is totally beat down by an industry segment when that person experienced all that, and maybe more, and persevered - and after persevering, tried to help, or shed perspective, but was rebuked.

Mike has helped so many people on this forum. Like, a retarded amount. He's fat on compassion and intellect and understanding. The reason he's in a decent place right now is because he's a really nice, dedicated, and hard working person. At a night freight place we both worked at, I saw him get to the highest level pilot position we had because he sacrificed and buckled down in the midst of others complaining they couldn't advance. (This is at a seniority shop). Mike simply makes the sacrifices required to achieve his goals all the while, never pulling up the ladder behind him.

Whatever is going on in this thread, Mike is not your enemy. He is a really descent person who is not only a kick ass aviator, he's a mentor and a role model. And I know he doesn't need me speaking on his behalf at all - but after he mentioned he might just bail on this forum I had to say something. If I could give those with a beef for Mike, and Mike himself some advice, I'd say to take a pause, read more than write, understand more than argue, and accept more than attack.
 
MikeFavinger said:
I've been wanting to write this for a while but figured things would just run their course and everything would be fine. But it's escalating even further and I have to express my opinion about @mikecweb .

BLUF - he's one of the good ones. He really is. If you were to pick ten people to stay and provide value on JC, he'd be one of them.

I haven't talked to Mike in a long while, but I met him back in 2006 or so. He's a dude who will not only faithfully put his head down and work for a goal, he's a guy who will take time out to help anyone interested. Like a lot of folks, he's CFI'd, done night freight, part 135 - you name it. He's probably worked at a lot of places like @BEEF SUPREME has and has most likely experienced a lot of BS along his career path. My uneducated guess on the reason for the current "beef" is the perception that some encountered obstacles and developed or displayed a "woe is me" attitude, where others faced obstacles and drive on with positivity towards their goal. I understand how it can be difficult to read about how someone is totally beat down by an industry segment when that person experienced all that, and maybe more, and persevered - and after persevering, tried to help, or shed perspective, but was rebuked.

Mike has helped so many people on this forum. Like, a retarded amount. He's fat on compassion and intellect and understanding. The reason he's in a decent place right now is because he's a really nice, dedicated, and hard working person. At a night freight place we both worked at, I saw him get to the highest level pilot position we had because he sacrificed and buckled down in the midst of others complaining they couldn't advance. (This is at a seniority shop). Mike simply makes the sacrifices required to achieve his goals all the while, never pulling up the ladder behind him.

Whatever is going on in this thread, Mike is not your enemy. He is a really descent person who is not only a kick ass aviator, he's a mentor and a role model. And I know he doesn't need me speaking on his behalf at all - but after he mentioned he might just bail on this forum I had to say something. If I could give those with a beef for Mike, and Mike himself some advice, I'd say to take a pause, read more than write, understand more than argue, and accept more than attack.
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There is another long time member of this forum who said that Mike is the best pilot he’s ever flown with.
 
MikeFavinger said:
I've been wanting to write this for a while but figured things would just run their course and everything would be fine. But it's escalating even further and I have to express my opinion about @mikecweb .

BLUF - he's one of the good ones. He really is. If you were to pick ten people to stay and provide value on JC, he'd be one of them.

I haven't talked to Mike in a long while, but I met him back in 2006 or so. He's a dude who will not only faithfully put his head down and work for a goal, he's a guy who will take time out to help anyone interested. Like a lot of folks, he's CFI'd, done night freight, part 135 - you name it. He's probably worked at a lot of places like @BEEF SUPREME has and has most likely experienced a lot of BS along his career path. My uneducated guess on the reason for the current "beef" is the perception that some encountered obstacles and developed or displayed a "woe is me" attitude, where others faced obstacles and drive on with positivity towards their goal. I understand how it can be difficult to read about how someone is totally beat down by an industry segment when that person experienced all that, and maybe more, and persevered - and after persevering, tried to help, or shed perspective, but was rebuked.

Mike has helped so many people on this forum. Like, a retarded amount. He's fat on compassion and intellect and understanding. The reason he's in a decent place right now is because he's a really nice, dedicated, and hard working person. At a night freight place we both worked at, I saw him get to the highest level pilot position we had because he sacrificed and buckled down in the midst of others complaining they couldn't advance. (This is at a seniority shop). Mike simply makes the sacrifices required to achieve his goals all the while, never pulling up the ladder behind him.

Whatever is going on in this thread, Mike is not your enemy. He is a really descent person who is not only a kick ass aviator, he's a mentor and a role model. And I know he doesn't need me speaking on his behalf at all - but after he mentioned he might just bail on this forum I had to say something. If I could give those with a beef for Mike, and Mike himself some advice, I'd say to take a pause, read more than write, understand more than argue, and accept more than attack.
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I've got so much to say about this. I've displayed all kinds of mettle to get to where I am now. Blackballed because someone didn't like the way I stood up for my family background was not something I was willing to put up with. I got through upgrade anyway and then I quit and yes that was to prove to everyone I worked with and dealt with at the time that I was better than them. It's right there on my PRIA. Anyone who doesn't believe that I made it through my "captain board" can have a heavily redacted copy. Lots of people don't like me because I made it anyway and moved on to something way better. I don't care either. As I've said before they can all GFY. I run into them at SEA and I just smile. They know not to talk with me either because I told them not to. Right to their face: "Forget me and don't talk about me with the people you used to work with. We aren't friends" One sat right across from me in the hotel van. She never said a word. If she had I would of asked her about her ex boyfriend who was fired from AS. Why. I don't know but my guess is because the guy is a turd. I knew he was a turd when I flew with him. The merit based system never worked. But the cool airline that sells BLM t-shirts, they sure did figure it out. They kicked him to the curb.

When someone who I've never worked with chimes in about this situation constantly, I'm going to show them as much disrespect as possible. Other people feel differently about him. Cool. That isn't the experience I've had. He jumped on the way wrong bandwagon. I've intentionally burned a bridge 2X. Once at XO and the other at a part 91 operation that wouldn't give me time off for the birth of my son. I'd put both those places and the pilots in the same category. Not worth pissing on if on fire.

Since then I have been at 2, 121 operators with zero issues. Flown with hundreds of pilots. Not a single issue. Made good friends that I've met in other cities and put on a mountain bike skills clinic for their friends and family, or gone sailing or all kinds of other cool things. You know what. I don't give a single F that people from XO don't like me or that they told Mike nasty things about me. I consider them all trash and not worth dealing with.
 
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@MikeFavinger
I appreciate the kind words, I wish I could be half the person you are and accomplish a fraction that you have. With that being said don't waste your time trying to convince people I'm anything. If a couple of guys with absolutely no vested interest in this profession think I'm an ass, well so be it. It's never been a popularity contest for me. I'm dedicated to my craft and that's seen by some as a weakness. The love of flying, now seen as a flaw. What a crazy time to be a aviator. Hell I'm even the bad guy because my employer delivered some warn notices. Like I said, never in it to be popular. I started this journey when I was six to fly my current type for my current employer. I'll take that as a win even if others think I'm a fool.

I think that's enough internet for awhile. No I'm not leaving. I would never abandon the community I helped build in a small way. But I think I'm adding to the stress so I'll get some fresh air on the Salish Sea and wish you all well. Till next time...
 
I virtually never post here so here it goes... @MikeFavinger is spot on. @mikecweb is one of the few people who have mentored me and truly tried to help me advance in this career. When I met him in 2008, he was flying cargo Lears in the middle of the night. He has cut his teeth in this industry, and suffered his fair share of rejections and setbacks.
I'm happy that after a lot of sacrifice he made it to where he's at. I value and respect his opinion and consider it along all others, especially with me being out the door on October 1st.
 
mikecweb said:
@MikeFavinger
I appreciate the kind words, I wish I could be half the person you are and accomplish a fraction that you have. With that being said don't waste your time trying to convince people I'm anything. If a couple of guys with absolutely no vested interest in this profession think I'm an ass, well so be it. It's never been a popularity contest for me. I'm dedicated to my craft and that's seen by some as a weakness. The love of flying, now seen as a flaw. What a crazy time to be a aviator. Hell I'm even the bad guy because my employer delivered some warn notices. Like I said, never in it to be popular. I started this journey when I was six to fly my current type for my current employer. I'll take that as a win even if others think I'm a fool.

I think that's enough internet for awhile. No I'm not leaving. I would never abandon the community I helped build in a small way. But I think I'm adding to the stress so I'll get some fresh air on the Salish Sea and wish you all well. Till next time...
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There's a weird thing that happens when you unplug from this place, and the eyes you have when you come back. I'm not pretending it's like seeing the matrix for what it is, but it makes me wonder if maybe Facebook is less poisonous.

I think it's the Covid, since March I felt like the number of stupid stupid things that get said on here have multiplied by the normal idiots, and a lot more by the normal ones.

I call for calm, the guy who is regularly stirring up jokes and being irreverent, and it's not greeted well, and I think that makes since when you think about it. You do a pretty good job here and are well thought of, only somehow you get tossed in the trash because you're not able to recite if it's Eastasia or Eurasia that is the enemy today.
 
jynxyjoe said:
There's a weird thing that happens when you unplug from this place, and the eyes you have when you come back. I'm not pretending it's like seeing the matrix for what it is, but it makes me wonder if maybe Facebook is less poisonous.

I think it's the Covid, since March I felt like the number of stupid stupid things that get said on here have multiplied by the normal idiots, and a lot more by the normal ones.

I call for calm, the guy who is regularly stirring up jokes and being irreverent, and it's not greeted well, and I think that makes since when you think about it. You do a pretty good job here and are well thought of, only somehow you get tossed in the trash because you're not able to recite if it's Eastasia or Eurasia that is the enemy today.
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I’d say Facebook is actually a lot worse. Not nearly the cesspool that’s Twitter is, but close. This place is relatively benign by comparison.
 
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