Furlough Estimates

[mikecweb]

Yes, I’m curious, what could possibly motivate anyone here to want to spread doom disingenuously?

I'm curious, what could possibly motivate you to spread rumors and theories about an industry you are no longer in, and never will be in again? There are people here that are absolutely terrified about being able to put food on their tables, making decisions based on what they are reading and you can't stand but to throw out scenarios that have zero affect on you, at all.
I mean some might find some kind of thrill sitting around in a circle and discussing the end of the world but it only ends once, so if this isn't it, there's a way forward. The whole premise of this thread, to spit ball how many people might lose their jobs is pretty poor for mental health.

And please save me the response of well why don't you just stop posting in this thread and Beef's usual response of calling me a fat retard. I struggle to find a reason to stay on this website and that is largely due to the work that Dough has put into building a community and the response I received when I was run out of here a few months ago. But if my commentary, experience, or company is no longer appreciated or desired I will gladly just spend my time with my wife and my pups and ignore the community that I contributed to since I was a student and let the doomers rule the roost on when everyone will be unemployed.

 

[mikecweb]

Do tell. What's my motivation?


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I wasn't specifically addressing you but if you're asking, are you trying to out doom someone else?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I'm curious, what could possibly motivate you to spread rumors and theories about an industry you are no longer in, and never will be in again?

Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.

Obviously it’s because like me, you’re an idiot.

Sunshine, rainbows and unicorns for everyone!!!


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[Screaming_Emu]

Really, really stoked I invested my time and effort to become a PMBI mountain bike coach. It was a good use of my time last couple years. I got over 10 hours of coaching in this week. Still gainfully employed by AS. For now. I expect that to change sometime next year...


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You need to know that when you use acronyms, that most of us have no idea WTF you're talking about. A few weeks ago, you kept saying MTB. I went to this link and chose my favorite. MTB

It wasn't until then that I had any idea that you were so involved in the Mexico Tourism Board. Once this is over, I'd definitely like to take a trip down there.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

You need to know that when you use acronyms, that most of us have no idea WTF you're talking about. A few weeks ago, you kept saying MTB. I went to this link and chose my favorite. MTB

It wasn't until then that I had any idea that you were so involved in the Mexico Tourism Board. Once this is over, I'd definitely like to take a trip down there.

pmbia

pmbia.org

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.

I like small boobies anyhow


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[mikecweb]

Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.

I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.

Flying with me for two legs definitely should get someone a one way ticket to the majors.

Seriously though, that overnight in HKG was one of the highlights of my time here. I obviously hope it doesn't happen, but selfishly I wouldn't hate it if any of my friends who get furloughed happened to land here. Fantastic people is the only thing this place is missing.

 

[mikecweb]

Flying with me for two legs definitely should get someone a one way ticket to the majors.

Seriously though, that overnight in HKG was one of the highlights of my time here. I obviously hope it doesn't happen, but selfishly I wouldn't hate it if any of my friends who get furloughed happened to land here. Fantastic people is the only thing this place is missing.

Mine too. The fact that we knew each other when we just dreamed of flying airplanes let alone 747s and got to fly a trip together to some far off place was one of the highlights of my career. It's what keeps you going. It just saddens me that at this place, called jetcareers, it's now popular to just compare notes on how much you shouldn't like your job and what other industries are better, what degrees we all should have gotten, and how foolish it is to, you know, be a community. It's sad.

 

[BobDDuck]

It just saddens me that at this place, called jetcareers, it's now popular to just compare notes on how much you shouldn't like your job and what other industries are better, what degrees we all should have gotten, and how foolish it is to, you know, be a community. It's sad.

If you go back and look at the posts made in 2008 you'll see the same thing. Probably the same thing would have been happening in 2002 as well if there were enough people actually working professionally on the site. I certainly remember Tenney talking about getting out back then.

The industry is cyclical. We've been here before and wellbeing here again. People need to be prepared (financially and emotionally) as best they can and then (unless they are on an MEC or Committee that actually can make agreements with the company they work for) just go along for the ride.

 

[jynxyjoe]

The "you can't shrink to profitability" bit is true to a certain extent, but isn't absolute. If you're a service provider, you can only employ as many people in the field as you have customers to keep them busy. At the same time, you need a certain amount of infrastructure to employ and support them. Any cuts in the field need to be matched, if not exceeded, by reductions in fixed overhead, and at a certain point you're taking off muscle and bone that will impact your ability to conduct business at all. You certainly CAN shrink to profitability, but there's a hard line at which point you can't support the remaining field service team and no longer have a viable business. The companies that survive will figure out how to be more agile and how to do more with less overhead expenses in real estate, management structure, taxes, benefits, payroll et al.

So... Kinda. Im not saying you cant imagine a scenario where you shrink to profitablity, im saying in the real world you can't. Whatever you do in your business your peers will do, especially cutting costs.

You know how people say "good fences make good neighbors?" And some nerdy dipwad then says, "the author was being ironic when he said that and that given certain imagined scenarios in the poetry book we dont have to live like that and mankind is the opposite-" you woke up later having passed into a coma from boredom or, if youve heard guys do this before you scream, "whoooooo CARESSS!??!" Im trying to be that first guy here, not the bespectacled nerd.

New revenue, new tricks to increase your margin in a very competitive market, those sorts of things get you out of this muck. Of course you cut payroll and other costs, airlines arent charity, but cutting costs is easy, its what everyone does, it's not imaginative.

You can't shrink into profitability. When everyone copies what you are doing correctly and you copy what they're doing correctly in this environment, you still need about 4/5s the other airlines to go away. Hopefully these pax numbers get back to the high 1 million or low 2 million, but its been months and its not happening. Margin call is due unless cares part duex enters the game.

 

[JordanD]

Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.

"You have a headache? It's probably a malignant brain tumor, you'll probably be dead in 6 months."

"I was just telling them they should get their affairs in order!"

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.

Have I excused someone else calling you names or taken part in it? No, to the contrary, I’ve called the person out who has. As to the rest, I guess good for you?

"You have a headache? It's probably a malignant brain tumor, you'll probably be dead in 6 months."

"I was just telling them they should get their affairs in order!"

Yes, clearly that’s analogous to what’s taking place here.

 

[Rocketman99]

What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.

 

[ComplexHiAv8r]

@GypsyPilot I take serious issue with you saying that I'm callously playing yo-yo with peoples lives. I was actually, very seriously considering going to XJT when I had my hours for their exceptional training and also the AVIATE program. Also and this is very important. Many people here are new to the site and have either never heard of, or have forgotten about a older regular poster on here by the name BM. Who is an XJT captain, great guy.

In recent better days in this industry, while I was in SLC he stayed in touch with me during my training and even offered to walk my app in personally. We used to talk at length about XJT and their training program. He's a friend and both he and his family are going to be greatly affected by this closure. I WOULD NOT JOKE ABOUT THAT!

To continue.

I prefaced, that I wasn't sure if true. But, I was hopeful. Where I read that, social media, FB to be precise. On a very respected active member of this sites wall and also an ex-Jetlink pilot himself. I posted that here to find out if true.

I’ve been talking to BM. NOT good over there. 8(


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[mikecweb]

Yes, clearly that’s analogous to what’s taking place here.

It'd actually be closer to being accurate if it was a nurse that barely ever saw patients and is now selling used cars and giving that advice.

 

[Eagle421flyer]

Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I don't always agree with @SlumTodd_Millionaire but he's right on this one. Some of the people at my company aren't even taking it seriously, though they have gotten warn letters. "It's just a warn letter that doesn't mean they will furlough." Its literally in the title Warn, they are trying to Warn you, you are getting furloughed. If they didn't need to furlough they wouldn't send it. Maybe it's the younger crowd whose never been furloughed before? I don't know but apparently the wives are just as delusional as the pilots according to my wife.

 

[mwflyer]

If you go back and look at the posts made in 2008 you'll see the same thing. Probably the same thing would have been happening in 2002 as well if there were enough people actually working professionally on the site. I certainly remember Tenney talking about getting out back then.

The industry is cyclical. We've been here before and wellbeing here again. People need to be prepared (financially and emotionally) as best they can and then (unless they are on an MEC or Committee that actually can make agreements with the company they work for) just go along for the ride.

Exactly. 2008 was waaaay worse on this sight than anything I’m seeing now. Part of it was that you were getting kicked in the junk at a regional for half of what you do now.

 

[jynxyjoe]

What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.

He's wearing the mask most of the time hes suppose to and he isnt saying dont wear a mask. He philosophically thinks government shouldnt be ordering it while most people feel like the state is just protecting itself, me included.