Furlough Estimates

tcco94 said:
Humans are humans. And travelling will be popular again in the future.
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I actually don’t think the airlines are in that bad of a position. It’s not a fear of getting sick on an airplane and its not a factor of people not having the money to fly. It’s a matter of what the hell am I going to do when I land? Those that know me personally know I go down to MSY every 2 or 3 months. Bourbon street is totally closed, my favorite bar in Algiers is closed as well. Walking around and eating takeout in my hotel doesn’t sound like much fun. When things start to open again and I mean really open, not Trump’s liberate whoever, their will be a lot of pent up travel demand.
 
UA’s major muscle movements on Thursday appear to have sent aviation bonkers. GDP shrinkage yesterday fit the mood and added fuel to the fire. I’m just standing in the corner reminiscing about how all the posts are strangely reminiscent of what people were saying in early April. I lost sleep over some of those until I realized that that is just how some people are. There is nothing necessarily wrong with that, but one just has to recognize it and let it slide off. Continue to make the best decisions for yourself and your family.

Objectively, the score right now is that we know how long each major company can hold its breath. They will continue to downsize. Regionals are going to continue to be horrible and many will shutter. It is anybody’s guess what the future holds. Passenger traffic had consistent upward growth and with good velocity throughout late May and all of June. It is currently almost 10x what it was in April and steady. It stayed essentially level even with this big increase in case rates. The recovery will continue to be very choppy. W shaped if you will.

Another note, and this one is a left turn. Wanna know what the biggest driver of the GDP shrinkage was? Healthcare. We took something that was apparently inelastic in demand and made it elastic. Or at least it seems that way at first. Healthcare has to roar back. We don’t really have a choice. Sure some boob jobs will never happen now, but most stuff that people are ignoring or suffering through right now HAVE to be addressed. Children having to catch up on immunizations to be able to go to school is just one small example.


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ASpilot2be said:
Frontier sending WARN notices to 35% of pilots and flight attendants.
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Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.
 
CFIT99 said:
Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.
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I do believe that some of the "wowzers" numbers re: WARN notices are partially a shock and awe campaign for the folks on the Hill this week.
 
bimmerphile said:
I do believe that some of the "wowzers" numbers re: WARN notices are partially a shock and awe campaign for the folks on the Hill this week.
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Completely agree, and I’m right on the edge of the notices so I’m less nervous than someone who is near the bottom but still in money save mode.
 
upup89 said:
I remember in 2008 people saying the airlines were never going to hire an employee ever again. Par for the course this time also.
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Here's the problem/issue........ if you were to combine 9/11 and the recession of 2008.......what is happening right now is far, far worse, will last much longer, and will effect the carriers in ways.. .....large and small than we have never previously experienced or seen. I am just trying to get folks to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. As the Federal monies and agreements whittle down......things are going to get interesting......very interesting. I sincerely wish the best for everyone here. Gerry
 
I think @SlumTodd_Millionaire talked about it ealier on this thread or another but I wanna resummarize because some of you already have or may own a small business someday. This is a revenue problem, if it were a body this is a heart beat stopped and blood not flowing. Businesses are concerned with costs second, revenue first, and that's because it turns out you can always cut costs. Tightening the belt is second nature for every mammal it seems, not just every human. If there is no revenue, there is no business. If there's 1/4 of the revenue one day, compared to last month, that's the ball game.

There's a lot of ways to explain this process, but make no mistake, this is not completely understood until you have or run a business. Revenue is everything. You have to increase revenues first and cut costs second. This also relates to, "you can't shrink to profitability" cliche's we use as a way to flip the bird at management. That doesn't really mean what we think it means.

Revenue is life, no or low revenue is death. All of the airlines should have entered chapter 11 already, all of us will if the picture stays the same. The first wave will be 70% chapter 11, 30% liquidation. The second wave will be 30% chapter 11, 70% liquidation. There's enough people flying to keep about 3 airlines running at the size they are today.

If there's no cares act 2, what should have happened in April will happen in october and November, and there's not a damn thing anyone can do to stop it. You can have all the cash on hand you want, if costs exceed revenue, that's the ball game.

Hopefully a miracle cure or a great vaccine comes out tomorrow. *Raises glass*, here's hoping.
 
jynxyjoe said:
I think @SlumTodd_Millionaire talked about it ealier on this thread or another but I wanna resummarize because some of you already have or may own a small business someday. This is a revenue problem, if it were a body this is a heart beat stopped and blood not flowing. Businesses are concerned with costs second, revenue first, and that's because it turns out you can always cut costs. Tightening the belt is second nature for every mammal it seems, not just every human. If there is no revenue, there is no business. If there's 1/4 of the revenue one day, compared to last month, that's the ball game.

There's a lot of ways to explain this process, but make no mistake, this is not completely understood until you have or run a business. Revenue is everything. You have to increase revenues first and cut costs second. This also relates to, "you can't shrink to profitability" cliche's we use as a way to flip the bird at management. That doesn't really mean what we think it means.

Revenue is life, no or low revenue is death. All of the airlines should have entered chapter 11 already, all of us will if the picture stays the same. The first wave will be 70% chapter 11, 30% liquidation. The second wave will be 30% chapter 11, 70% liquidation. There's enough people flying to keep about 3 airlines running at the size they are today.

If there's no cares act 2, what should have happened in April will happen in october and November, and there's not a damn thing anyone can do to stop it. You can have all the cash on hand you want, if costs exceed revenue, that's the ball game.

Hopefully a miracle cure or a great vaccine comes out tomorrow. *Raises glass*, here's hoping.
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Full pay to the last day - with the understanding, though, that there is, indeed, a last day, and that possibly right soon.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Full pay to the last day - with the understanding, though, that there is, indeed, a last day, and that possibly right soon.
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Yup, as long as everyone understands there will be a last day and they are coming for us.

I think theres reason for hope though, 99% of us will live through this thing and science will bail us out. Its just going to take time.
 
jynxyjoe said:
I think @SlumTodd_Millionaire talked about it ealier on this thread or another but I wanna resummarize because some of you already have or may own a small business someday. This is a revenue problem, if it were a body this is a heart beat stopped and blood not flowing. Businesses are concerned with costs second, revenue first, and that's because it turns out you can always cut costs. Tightening the belt is second nature for every mammal it seems, not just every human. If there is no revenue, there is no business. If there's 1/4 of the revenue one day, compared to last month, that's the ball game.

There's a lot of ways to explain this process, but make no mistake, this is not completely understood until you have or run a business. Revenue is everything. You have to increase revenues first and cut costs second. This also relates to, "you can't shrink to profitability" cliche's we use as a way to flip the bird at management. That doesn't really mean what we think it means.

Revenue is life, no or low revenue is death. All of the airlines should have entered chapter 11 already, all of us will if the picture stays the same. The first wave will be 70% chapter 11, 30% liquidation. The second wave will be 30% chapter 11, 70% liquidation. There's enough people flying to keep about 3 airlines running at the size they are today.

If there's no cares act 2, what should have happened in April will happen in october and November, and there's not a damn thing anyone can do to stop it. You can have all the cash on hand you want, if costs exceed revenue, that's the ball game.

Hopefully a miracle cure or a great vaccine comes out tomorrow. *Raises glass*, here's hoping.
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The "you can't shrink to profitability" bit is true to a certain extent, but isn't absolute. If you're a service provider, you can only employ as many people in the field as you have customers to keep them busy. At the same time, you need a certain amount of infrastructure to employ and support them. Any cuts in the field need to be matched, if not exceeded, by reductions in fixed overhead, and at a certain point you're taking off muscle and bone that will impact your ability to conduct business at all. You certainly CAN shrink to profitability, but there's a hard line at which point you can't support the remaining field service team and no longer have a viable business. The companies that survive will figure out how to be more agile and how to do more with less overhead expenses in real estate, management structure, taxes, benefits, payroll et al.
 
Really, really stoked I invested my time and effort to become a PMBI mountain bike coach. It was a good use of my time last couple years. I got over 10 hours of coaching in this week. Still gainfully employed by AS. For now. I expect that to change sometime next year...


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