Furlough Estimates

We think you guys will be fine as we are more expensive with our rates and high year captains. If it is us who lives (doubtful), you guys were always great when I needed a lift. One crew went way above and beyond one time and I wont ever forget it.
Size is an advantage. Gives united room to grow when demand returns.

in before everyone replies “that’s what she said.”
 
Size is an advantage. Gives united room to grow when demand returns.

in before everyone replies “that’s what she said.”

That's what I'm thinking as well. The smaller 145 operator has expanded aggressively in the past and it did not always go smoothly. Maybe it would be different now though, since there'd be no difficulty recruiting if necessary like there was before this year; and the worst operational issues were when there was a 2-type fleet.
 
At least I don't have to have the following conversation anymore:

FO: So how long have you been working here?

Me: Nineteen years. I upgraded in 2012.

FO (doing the math): So you spent eleven years in the right seat?

Me: Uh, yeah.

FO: Why did you stay in the right seat so long? Didn't you want to upgrade?

Me: <FACEPALM>.

Seriously, I'm happy to have had a career that I really enjoy. As an FO, I worked with a lot of great captains and enjoyed my time at work (AND my time AWAY from work). Now I get to fly with some awesome FOs. I wish everyone the best getting through this mess.
 
To clarify: he’s socially retarded not actually retarded. I think. Anyway I’m sure his posts are proving that. Can’t see em tho.


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Stalkers are more entertaining in movies. It's unsettling when it happens in real life. I love the internet.
 
Size is an advantage. Gives united room to grow when demand returns.

in before everyone replies “that’s what she said.”

As far as I see it its Size V Cost and its anybody's game. All I know is only one has given WARN notices so far, so it should be an interesting week.
 
Speculating about ExpressJet vs Commut is a fool's errand, it's always what you least expect in this industry. It's probably way too soon to draw conclusion about even the next 90 days. But if XJT guys actually take concessions, it would be HUUUUGE mistake.

Concessions were voted in 2008 on contract 2004, and they never got their money back.
 
We think you guys will be fine as we are more expensive with our rates and high year captains. If it is us who lives (doubtful), you guys were always great when I needed a lift. One crew went way above and beyond one time and I wont ever forget it.
...ACK?
 
Have you ever met him in person? What are you basing your assumptions off of?

The fact that like you, he pathologically hounds me about what happened when I was thrown into the worst, most bigoted pilot group I’ve ever been around.

I had an extremely bad experience at one 135 outfit and since then I’ve had nothing but good experiences. Flown with hundreds of pilots and made nothing but good friends. Yet somehow for you and Mikey and maybe one or two others I’m forever burning bridges.

It’s a puzzle quite easily solved by remembering birds of a feather and all. If you listen to socially awkward, stupid followers you most likely are one yourself.

I mean I sometimes catch myself wondering who you’re listening to from XO. Maybe they were one of the dudes going on long racist tirades about the “blacks” as we traveled from TEB to VNY. I didn’t like it but it was a nice break from an anti Semitic rant. Maybe you’re the “black friend” they so often referenced?


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Using their numbers of approximately 14 pilots per airplane, those plus the SWAPA overstaffing estimate would yield a furlough of about 2100 to 3200 pilots or, 20%-32% of the pilot group.

MAX overstaffing: 700 pilots
Aircraft parked 100-180: 1400 - 2520 pilots
Total overstaffed by (based on fleet count): 2100 - 3220 pilots

Judging by the early retirements and long term leaves totaling 24% (around 2350) my estimate was pretty close.

The question is whether that was enough, or do they need to cut deeper come January?


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The fact that like you, he pathologically hounds me about what happened when I was thrown into the worst, most bigoted pilot group I’ve ever been around.

I had an extremely bad experience at one 135 outfit and since then I’ve had nothing but good experiences. Flown with hundreds of pilots and made nothing but good friends. Yet somehow for you and Mikey and maybe one or two others I’m forever burning bridges.

It’s a puzzle quite easily solved by remembering birds of a feather and all. If you listen to socially awkward, stupid followers you most likely are one yourself.

I mean I sometimes catch myself wondering who you’re listening to from XO. Maybe they were one of the dudes going on long racist tirades about the “blacks” as we traveled from TEB to VNY. I didn’t like it but it was a nice break from an anti Semitic rant. Maybe you’re the “black friend” they so often referenced?


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Honestly, I can't extend any sympathy towards you in that situation. YOU allowed that tirade to continue, apparently without speaking up and silencing, shaming him, or trying to change the subject. People only get away with what you allow, you allowed him to say that crap in your presence for that leg. Living in AZ. I've had a lot of white people even some black people make some foul ass comments about Hispanics or Asians (aka China visus comments) in my presence. I shut that sh-t down cold, quick. Nope wasn't happening. All this bs about being a chameleon as an FO is bullsh-t. You'd peak up when the Captain is being non SOP compliant wouldn't you? Likewise you should as well,when he or she has donned their Klan hood in the cockpit too. If not, you're complicit.
 
Judging by the early retirements and long term leaves totaling 24% (around 2350) my estimate was pretty close.

The question is whether that was enough, or do they need to cut deeper come January?


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From the earnings call the other day it sounds like they are feeling pretty good about the take rate of the pilot group.

This is from the VP of corporate services.


“The 4,400 voluntary separations represent 7% or so of the workforce -- of the active workforce, and the nearly 17,000 total between the two programs represent about 27% of the active workforce. And of the 12,500 request for an extended leave, over 60% are for a year longer. So the way I think about that, the combination of voluntary separation and leaves of a year or longer represent 20% of the active workforce was just a huge amount of flexibility. While the response from every group was really good, I do want to call out our pilots.

Because of the relative financial value, it was key to have them participate, and our pilots really came through, with over 2,300 electing one of the two programs, and that represents about 25% of all active pilots. And I'm just really proud of them, and I'm really proud of all of our employees. We will be granting all requests for separation, and the vast majority of those will be separated before September 30. Extended leave requests aren't perfectly balanced across the company as you would expect and the operation, so there's a little bit of work to do there.”

So for now it sounds like they are pretty happy with how things shook out. Plus GK has hinted that the next lever to pull will be some kind of pay/benefit concession talk with the unions before they pull the furlough trigger. So that will be the master warning light for preparing for the furlough.

I can tell you that I got my 2 year ExTO and will be enjoying the long hair unshaven hippie life starting in September.
 
Honestly, I can't extend any sympathy towards you in that situation. YOU allowed that tirade to continue, apparently without speaking up and silencing, shaming him, or trying to change the subject. People only get away with what you allow, you allowed him to say that crap in your presence for that leg. Living in AZ. I've had a lot of white people even some black people make some foul ass comments about Hispanics or Asians (aka China visus comments) in my presence. I shut that sh-t down cold, quick. Nope wasn't happening. All this bs about being a chameleon as an FO is bullsh-t. You'd peak up when the Captain is being non SOP compliant wouldn't you? Likewise you should as well,when he or she has donned their Klan hood in the cockpit too. If not, you're complicit.

When you've got 3 more days with a weird captain, you also have to pick your battles. You'll see. 121 flying is different from what you're used to. I certainly change the subject quickly. And you've got avenues in 121... pro stands for one. Yes if somebody is being directly racist or homophobic you speak up, but a lot of times it's just some really bad hot take on something and more dogwhistley than direct. At some point you just get out a book..(of company approved reading material of course) and say hey man I'm gonna read for awhile. The weird uncomfortable CRM dynamics are... a whole thing.

I had an FO start going on a rant at 14,000 feet about San Francisco and Kalifornia as he was #triggered by beginning the STAR into there. I just said "yeah, I think this is more than a 4,000 foot conversation. Let's get an approach checklist..."
 
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