Furlough Estimates

drunkenbeagle said:
I'm not sure exactly what the gubmint can really do. Subsidize losses indefinitely? At the end of the day, even with the gubmint stepping in to do that, there still eventually needs to be cashflow to make the bond owners whole, or chapter 11 is happening anyway.
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SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Yes.
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So we’d have the US-3? Just sayin’...goose, gander, etc etc.


The only defense of this I can see — and only for Delta, United, and American — is due to considerations of the CRAF. It’s a strategic asset that is jeopardized and those 3 have the lift.
 
Derg said:
The EU and the rest of the world are fear porn mongers on CNN. It’s just a cold what what kills cold? Heat.

(116F in PHX today, hot (zone) damn!)
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My sons' in Anthem through the weekend. He will probably melt with that heat.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I assume you mean sans bailout? Because that's the obvious answer.

Without that, the only answer is mass bankruptcies and further consolidation.

Edit: I forgot re-regulation, which would be my preferred outcome. But it's so unlikely with the current Senate and President* that despite it being my favorite solution, it didn't even occur to me at first.
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This what I have been thinking also. We can not continue to put 10's of thousands on the street every 10 years
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
The defense is quite simple: air transportation is a public utility.
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Ok. Not exactly a free-market capitalist response.
1) And public utilities are regulated because competition is restricted. Can you imagine 5 sets of sewer/water pipes running around a city? And power lines? Roll back the ADA, and that won’t give KBFE 6 flights a day to a hub. They might get 2. Some places might get cut to 0. People might actually have to drive 3-4 hrs to get on an airliner.
2) So no more griping about subsidies to the ME-3? Airbus?

A public utility? Water? Electricity? Yes. Air travel? It’s that more of a luxury? To treat it as a public utility, there’d be a fraction of the planes flying and fewer butts needed to fill the front seats.
 
deadstick said:
Ok. Not exactly a free-market capitalist response.
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No, it's not. I'm generally a hardcore capitalist. But capitalism isn't the answer to every problem. Some industries just do not belong in the free market. Health care, utilities, airlines, etc. The regulated system under the CAB worked for half a century. We deregulated it and it's been nothing but a mess ever since.

1) And public utilities are regulated because competition is restricted. Can you imagine 5 sets of sewer/water pipes running around a city? And power lines? Roll back the ADA, and that won’t give KBFE 6 flights a day to a hub. They might get 2. Some places might get cut to 0. People might actually have to drive 3-4 hrs to get on an airliner.
2) So no more griping about subsidies to the ME-3? Airbus?

A public utility? Water? Electricity? Yes. Air travel? It’s that more of a luxury? To treat it as a public utility, there’d be a fraction of the planes flying and fewer butts needed to fill the front seats.
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Have you ever read the book "Hard Landing?" Or "Flying the Line Volumes 1 & 2?" You should. Learn how the CAB worked. There was plenty of frequency, and more importantly, the system didn't collapse and need to be rebuilt on the backs of the creditors and the taxpayer every 10 years. Plus the product was far superior.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
No, it's not. I'm generally a hardcore capitalist. But capitalism isn't the answer to every problem. Some industries just do not belong in the free market. Health care, utilities, airlines, etc. The regulated system under the CAB worked for half a century. We deregulated it and it's been nothing but a mess ever since.
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I’ll checkout Hard Landing.

As for the first part, where is the line drawn? I’m torn on health care. I benefitted from TriCare for years and it was caveman easy. I dread dealing with the likes of BCBS/Aetna nowadays. I think the current system is screwed up, BUT competition does drive innovation. Then again, many medical advances were made in military, too. So, again, where’s the line? What it the litmus test for an entity/service to be classified one way or another?
 
deadstick said:
I’ll checkout Hard Landing.

As for the first part, where is the line drawn? I’m torn on health care. I benefitted from TriCare for years and it was caveman easy. I dread dealing with the likes of BCBS/Aetna nowadays. I think the current system is screwed up, BUT competition does drive innovation. Then again, many medical advances were made in military, too. So, again, where’s the line? What it the litmus test for an entity/service to be classified one way or another?
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I can't remember the last time UHC did anything "innovative" that really involved anything other than screwing some more pennies out of me.
 
deadstick said:
I’ll checkout Hard Landing.

As for the first part, where is the line drawn? I’m torn on health care. I benefitted from TriCare for years and it was caveman easy. I dread dealing with the likes of BCBS/Aetna nowadays. I think the current system is screwed up, BUT competition does drive innovation. Then again, many medical advances were made in military, too. So, again, where’s the line? What it the litmus test for an entity/service to be classified one way or another?
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Well, one answer has been the fervent prayer of the GAO to place some sort of CEO type leadership above all the branches to start looking at business fixes and accounting practices. Keep in mind government groups (USPS for instance) can mimic the free market competition or free market businesses they see from afar (Lufthansa mimicking US legacies for instance) they just don't have the track record of innovating. Sometimes it's new technologies that save the day, sometimes its privatizing some of your logistics, I'm sure there are other examples, but they aren't going to innovate their way out of a wet paper bag without a crutch.

“If it was up to the NIH to cure polio through a centrally directed program… You’d have the best iron lung in the world but not a polio vaccine.”

Samuel Broder, Former Director, National Cancer Institute

My old man owned an engineering firm for a while and he used to openly bitch that medical insurance can bill an increasing 30% increase without end, every year and we all had to pay it. You can bounce around to different companies but all of them raised their rates exorbitantly each year. When it comes to being alive, people will pay anything, so you can't ask them to shop around for the best deal in the city for reattaching your insides after a car accident. We all need electricity, and people that work power grids are paid pretty well, but the state governments stopped most of the tit honking that went on decades ago and its regulated to a cost. While California's grid is a joke and terribly managed, no other state has that level of incompetence. There's the rub, what if nationalized health care gets run like California regulates their grid for a couple years? Hopefully it's like the other 45 (whatever it is now, I haven't researched this in a decade) states and it's great, we don't even think about it.
 
deadstick said:
I’ll checkout Hard Landing.

As for the first part, where is the line drawn? I’m torn on health care. I benefitted from TriCare for years and it was caveman easy. I dread dealing with the likes of BCBS/Aetna nowadays. I think the current system is screwed up, BUT competition does drive innovation. Then again, many medical advances were made in military, too. So, again, where’s the line? What it the litmus test for an entity/service to be classified one way or another?
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I don't think there is a clear line that you can set across the board as an easy standard. I think you have to call it like you see it. We had half a century of regulation that worked very well. We've now had nearly a half century of deregulation that has been an unmitigated disaster. I think we can see what's best in this scenario.
 
AA pilots to get WARN letters “sometime next week,” according to director of line operations on his latest podcast. No other real details except the “importance of the union working with the company...”
 
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The thing that leaves me scratching my head is the WARN Act (NY State, specifically) requires a 90 day warning of "closures and layoffs to workers, employee representatives, the Department of Labor, and local workforce development boards." But as far as I know, only the pilots at Delta have received such warning.

According to their notification to the NYDoL, Delta identified 818 affected employees.

labor.ny.gov

Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN)

The NYS WARN Act requires covered businesses to provide early warnings of closures and layoffs to all affected.
labor.ny.gov labor.ny.gov
 
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