Furlough Estimates

I called it months ago. Round 2 will likely happen prior to Oct 1st to save jobs and get votes.

How about another ALPA call to action. Join APA, AFA’s together for a picket in Congress. Storm D.C. no mask, no social distancing to prove a point. Donnie will see it and love it.

He’ll support round two in a jiffy. Jobs for votes 2020.
 
ScorpioStinger said:
I called it months ago. Round 2 will likely happen prior to Oct 1st to save jobs and get votes.

How about another ALPA call to action. Join APA, AFA’s together for a picket in Congress. Storm D.C. no mask, no social distancing to prove a point. Donnie will see it and love it.

He’ll support round two in a jiffy. Jobs for votes 2020.
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I mean, at some point we need to have a discussion on should the airlines be getting another bailout or should we just let them "fail" and pray it all gets better for we the pilots in the future when theres less competition and increased price tolerance in the marketplace (when we the airlines screw the passengers out of every dollar and they thank us).
 
jynxyjoe said:
I mean, at some point we need to have a discussion on should the airlines be getting another bailout or should we just let them "fail" and pray it all gets better for we the pilots in the future when theres less competition and increased price tolerance in the marketplace (when we the airlines screw the passengers out of every dollar and they thank us).
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I’ve thought about this, but at the same time, would any survive? This is insane and it is continuing to get worse. I don’t know, but I’m tired of the anxiety of it all. Still waiting to wake up from the bad dream.
 
Ayork62493 said:
Honest question, how do airlines survive this? I wasn’t around for the two previous downturns but I try and be as educated as possible on the outcomes. A business isn’t designed to weather essentially zero revenue for an indefinite amount of time. Thoughts?
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I assume you mean sans bailout? Because that's the obvious answer.

Without that, the only answer is mass bankruptcies and further consolidation.

Edit: I forgot re-regulation, which would be my preferred outcome. But it's so unlikely with the current Senate and President* that despite it being my favorite solution, it didn't even occur to me at first.
 
Roger Roger said:
I mean for the big 3 getting us to a point with covid where we’re not banned from the EU might be a good start. But you know I’m sure they’re just doing that to us because of liberal fear porn.
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Or, you know, getting the domestic situation down to the point where the States of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the City of Chicago don't have to mandate (and the State of Massachusetts "expects" - whatever THAT means) a 14-day quarantine for passengers arriving from various and sundry states that have basically failed at their public health responsibility, would help the industry too.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I assume you mean sans bailout? Because that's the obvious answer.

Without that, the only answer is mass bankruptcies and further consolidation.

Edit: I forgot re-regulation, which would be my preferred outcome. But it's so unlikely with the current Senate and President* that despite it being my favorite solution, it didn't even occur to me at first.
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I liked this post purely for the asterisk use.
 
jynxyjoe said:
F them. Nationalize it then. The sooner I see Airline CEO's jumping off tall buildings the better I'll feel.
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You think a nationalized airline industry would be better? I’m too young, I never experienced deregulation but I imagine the biggest impact would be sustainable airfare?
 
Ayork62493 said:
You think a nationalized airline industry would be better? I’m too young, I never experienced deregulation but I imagine the biggest impact would be sustainable airfare?
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Nationalization isn't synonymous with regulated. We never had a nationalized system in this country, but we did have a stable regulated airline industry under the CAB for half a century.
 
Ayork62493 said:
You think a nationalized airline industry would be better? I’m too young, I never experienced deregulation but I imagine the biggest impact would be sustainable airfare?
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I think if the taxpayers have to bail the airlines out every couple years you just cut out the middle men taking all the money and pissing on the employees.

Nationalized airlines could, at best, mimic good airlines and after ten or so years it would be clear they're not going to innovate.

IDC anymore, I just want steady work flying an airplane.
 
jynxyjoe said:
I think if the taxpayers have to bail the airlines out every couple years you just cut out the middle men taking all the money and pissing on the employees.

Nationalized airlines could, at best, mimic good airlines and after ten or so years it would be clear they're not going to innovate.

IDC anymore, I just want steady work flying an airplane.
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Nationalization should absolutely be the endgame of any employee that wants a decent future in this industry if it gets to that.

Letting airlines go chapter 7 and being rebuilt from their assets will be the end of organized labor in airlines for the rest of our careers. Imagine a Norwegian like contract system of convoluted subsidiaries with terms that change yearly for the rest of your career. No thanks
 
Doug Masters said:
Nationalization should absolutely be the endgame of any employee that wants a decent future in this industry if it gets to that.

Letting airlines go chapter 7 and being rebuilt from their assets will be the end of organized labor in airlines for the rest of our careers. Imagine a Norwegian like contract system of convoluted subsidiaries with terms that change yearly for the rest of your career. No thanks
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Once they're done with chapter 7 we can vote to unionize again, management can't get around that. I'll stomp them out before they stomp me out.
 
Doug Masters said:
Nationalization should absolutely be the endgame of any employee that wants a decent future in this industry if it gets to that.

Letting airlines go chapter 7 and being rebuilt from their assets will be the end of organized labor in airlines for the rest of our careers. Imagine a Norwegian like contract system of convoluted subsidiaries with terms that change yearly for the rest of your career. No thanks
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Who said anything about Chapter 7? That's not really in the cards. Every airline will hit the Chapter 11 trough again to drastically restructure their debt and gut labor contracts. Then they'll consolidate. We'll end up with something like Delta and United for full-service airlines, followed by a mid-brand Southwest, and Spirit at the bottom for the discount traveler. About four or five total airlines.

Again, assuming the gubmint doesn't step in and save this crap from happening.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Who said anything about Chapter 7? That's not really in the cards. Every airline will hit the Chapter 11 trough again to drastically restructure their debt and gut labor contracts. Then they'll consolidate. We'll end up with something like Delta and United for full-service airlines, followed by a mid-brand Southwest, and Spirit at the bottom for the discount traveler. About four or five total airlines.

Again, assuming the gubmint doesn't step in and save this crap from happening.
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Yeah you are right. I just wonder if this extremely low demand continues what a trip through chapter 11 would look like if revenues remain depressed by 60-70%. Probably not fun.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Who said anything about Chapter 7? That's not really in the cards. Every airline will hit the Chapter 11 trough again to drastically restructure their debt and gut labor contracts. Then they'll consolidate. We'll end up with something like Delta and United for full-service airlines, followed by a mid-brand Southwest, and Spirit at the bottom for the discount traveler. About four or five total airlines.

Again, assuming the gubmint doesn't step in and save this crap from happening.
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I'm not sure exactly what the gubmint can really do. Subsidize losses indefinitely? At the end of the day, even with the gubmint stepping in to do that, there still eventually needs to be cashflow to make the bond owners whole, or chapter 11 is happening anyway.
 
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