Furlough Estimates

drunkenbeagle said:
I'm not sure exactly what the gubmint can really do. Subsidize losses indefinitely? At the end of the day, even with the gubmint stepping in to do that, there still eventually needs to be cashflow to make the bond owners whole, or chapter 11 is happening anyway.
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Yes. The response to the overall threat has been pathetic. I don’t want to get political but we can explore literally any other country who encouraged and enforced the use of masks and they are not in the situation we are today. Despite their very high population density. We’ve lost control of this thing here and until everyone stops flinging “but muh freedom’ feces it isn’t going to get any better. Pathetic.
 
My wife sent me this a few days ago:
507E6467-99F1-4274-B3DC-D6DE5D2E2BB4.gif
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I'm not sure exactly what the gubmint can really do. Subsidize losses indefinitely? At the end of the day, even with the gubmint stepping in to do that, there still eventually needs to be cashflow to make the bond owners whole, or chapter 11 is happening anyway.
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I think the frightening alternative is one or more airlines disappearing to benefit the survivors.


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tcco94 said:
At this point I'm not sure who is surviving and who isn't. I am beginning to worry I won't have a job to come back to and have to start over again when able. No one is too big to fail are they?
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I seriously doubt the federal government would allow one of the big 3 to fail. I also doubt they care about Spirit or Frontier surviving. Further, if more assistance is necessary, I seriously doubt anybody who is up for reelection (including the Orange Man) would actively cast off assistance to a big chunk of high-earning employees who, I'd guess statistically, are probably right-leaning voters. The right always talks about reducing defecits and cutting spending, but nobody actually believes it, right? CARES has made TARP look like Monopoly money. If reelection numbers look bad I would bet anything they'll ram through more relief.

Honestly, folks, we have to put our pencils down. There are lots of ways this could play out. Most of them aren't particularly cheery, but we are going to drive people in to HIMS (or worse, they don't join HIMS) with this kind of discussion. Things are bad. Hoard cash, cut expenses if you haven't already, and wait and see what happens. We can't really do much else.
 
tcco94 said:
At this point I'm not sure who is surviving and who isn't. I am beginning to worry I won't have a job to come back to and have to start over again when able. No one is too big to fail are they?
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Yeah my concern isn’t a furlough, it’s that I won’t have an airline to come back to. In the past I would have said DAL/UAL/AA/SWA were too big to fail but now........


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roundout said:
Honestly, folks, we have to put our pencils down. There are lots of ways this could play out. Most of them aren't particularly cheery, but we are going to drive people in to HIMS (or worse, they don't join HIMS) with this kind of discussion. Things are bad. Hoard cash, cut expenses if you haven't already, and wait and see what happens. We can't really do much else.
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We've also got to buy ALPA and (especially) AFA a round when this is all over.
 
I know it’s cool to be negative these days, but none of the major airlines are liquidating. Furloughs and a run through bankruptcy sure. Major progress towards a vaccine is being made to be available the first quarter of 2021 as well as antibody drugs even earlier. I think things will look a lot different a year from now...not without some aches and pains along the way of course. Ok I’ll see myself out, carry on.
 
nuball5 said:
I know it’s cool to be negative these days, but none of the major airlines are liquidating. Furloughs and a run through bankruptcy sure. Major progress towards a vaccine is being made to be available the first quarter of 2021 as well as antibody drugs even earlier. I think things will look a lot different a year from now...not without some aches and pains along the way of course. Ok I’ll see myself out, carry on.
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It's not cool, it's realistic.

Realism has never been "cool," and I'll gladly label anyone who fails to acknowledge the enormity of the present circumstances as a Koolaid Commando, First Class.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
It's not cool, it's realistic.

Realism has never been "cool," and I'll gladly label anyone who fails to acknowledge the enormity of the present circumstances as a Koolaid Commando, First Class.
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No that’s your opinion, that doesn’t make it right. If you think that say half the airlines won’t exist a couple years from now you have the right to think that. I already said there will be furloughs and bankruptcies, but I guess I’m not taking it seriously enough or I’m drinking the koolaid...please. Anyone that knows for certain what things will look like in a year or two Is fooling themselves.
 
jynxyjoe said:
That headline was meant to push my buttons, the discussion is about removing Kathleen Kennedy, putting in Marvels Feigi in charge and getting rid of the whole 3 of them. New Luke, new Leia, new Han. Move into a whole new direction like TLJ. I don't think I ever appreciated the trouble Kennedy caused firing directors and the near magic way Feigi kept the storyline on track in the Marvel story. He's ready to be done with her. Her managing style may have worked 15 years ago, but next to better long form tv drama that lack of care has been eclipsed.

And, uhmmm, something about Furloughs.
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Boy I hope not.
 
roundout said:
I seriously doubt the federal government would allow one of the big 3 to fail. I also doubt they care about Spirit or Frontier surviving. Further, if more assistance is necessary, I seriously doubt anybody who is up for reelection (including the Orange Man) would actively cast off assistance to a big chunk of high-earning employees who, I'd guess statistically, are probably right-leaning voters. The right always talks about reducing defecits and cutting spending, but nobody actually believes it, right? CARES has made TARP look like Monopoly money. If reelection numbers look bad I would bet anything they'll ram through more relief.

Honestly, folks, we have to put our pencils down. There are lots of ways this could play out. Most of them aren't particularly cheery, but we are going to drive people in to HIMS (or worse, they don't join HIMS) with this kind of discussion. Things are bad. Hoard cash, cut expenses if you haven't already, and wait and see what happens. We can't really do much else.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Second bailout coming to hold us over until spring ‘21.
 
"'American is a good name for an airline. Who's gonna let something called American fail?"
"How 'bout United? Good name too"
"Yeaaah, go talk to UN about that one"
 
Roger Roger said:
I mean for the big 3 getting us to a point with covid where we’re not banned from the EU might be a good start. But you know I’m sure they’re just doing that to us because of liberal fear porn.
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The EU and the rest of the world are fear porn mongers on CNN. It’s just a cold what what kills cold? Heat.

(116F in PHX today, hot (zone) damn!)
 
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