Furlough Estimates

Ayork62493 said:
I’m just a pilot with a graduate degree. I’m not smart enough to comprehend this, and being 26 I haven’t been hit this hard before. But if it keeps me out of mum’s basement that’d be cool.
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Well you've got one educational achievement up on me, then*, but we more or less have a pretty good playbook for how to not let the economy go boom in these circumstances. It will contract for sure, but complete implosion is avoidable given the appropriate government intervention. 2008 was an excellent test case for the financial system itself, and anyone who thinks austerity on the fiscal side is right is an absolute, complete nutter who doesn't "get" it. (and was awful silent for the last few years, too)

Which, well, that's a good portion of the United States Senate.

I more or less never in my wildest dreams thought, though, that the Treasury would be paying the airline payroll. It's the only reason I was okay with that sort of intervention - it keeps money going to labor, and labor spends.

* August 1, MS.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Southwest Down 70% | CEO Gives Clear Assessment

KEY POINTS:
  • “Our business currently is down roughly 70 percent.”
  • “If we were to reduce our 60,000-strong workforce by 70 percent, we’re talking about a loss of 42,000 jobs.”
  • “If things are still this bad in the fourth quarter, and we’re continuing to lose $20 million dollars a day, we can all quickly see we have very few options.”
  • Referring to participation in the voluntary leave programs, Mr Kelly said, “we want to get as many volunteers as we possibly can.”
  • “There will not be another offer. This is it, and this one will expire on July 15.”
  • “Our business remains far below what is sustainable to support 60,000 jobs.”
  • “The pandemic is surging, not receding, and this increases the threat of furloughs."
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Not that I don't agree with your overall assessment, but remember that up until now, management over there has been pretty bullish on a quick recovery for them. They were very slow to cancel future schedules, said they'd be back to 100% by December, and put an early out program on the table that was going to cost them money in exchange for them to keep the "we've never furlough" legacy going.

That all probably isn't going to happen any more, and the reality of now having a hugely expensive program in place, most likely without the quick recovery they were basing everything on, is staring them in the face. I'm surprised there wasn't more doom and gloom in that press release.
 
BobDDuck said:
Not that I don't agree with your overall assessment, but remember that up until now, management over there has been pretty bullish on a quick recovery for them. They were very slow to cancel future schedules, said they'd be back to 100% by December, and put an early out program on the table that was going to cost them money in exchange for them to keep the "we've never furlough" legacy going.

That all probably isn't going to happen any more, and the reality of now having a hugely expensive program in place, most likely without the quick recovery they were basing everything on, is staring them in the face. I'm surprised there wasn't more doom and gloom in that press release.
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A swift, severe and substantial kick right in the proverbial chops, indeed.
 
BobDDuck said:
Not that I don't agree with your overall assessment, but remember that up until now, management over there has been pretty bullish on a quick recovery for them. They were very slow to cancel future schedules, said they'd be back to 100% by December, and put an early out program on the table that was going to cost them money in exchange for them to keep the "we've never furlough" legacy going.

That all probably isn't going to happen any more, and the reality of now having a hugely expensive program in place, most likely without the quick recovery they were basing everything on, is staring them in the face. I'm surprised there wasn't more doom and gloom in that press release.
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I'm in the bottom 15%

I don't want to be right about anything that I am saying. I did a lot of SE flying with a really cool captain and he kept telling me I shouldn't worry about a furlough. I think he was just trying to be friendly. Through this experience, I finally figured out how to say this without offending or triggering anyone: "I'm not nervous about a furlough or upset as that would not help. I do however, feel that it would be negligent to not plan on a furlough." Which in reality is exactly what I am doing.

Again. I don't want to be right. I don't want the pilots at SWA to be furloughed either. I'm simply pointing out what the CEO of SWA, the carrier that seemed to be in the best position cash wise is now saying about a staffing reduction.

This is happening and we should all be prepared before October 1.
 
Dexter said:
From the latest Delta mgmt town hall: over 900 pilots have already signed up for the early retirement program. Window has been open for 3 days.
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Does that mean they will accept those 900? AA has way more applications than acceptance for our early outs. It’s 100% managements choice on how many they accept.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I'm in the bottom 15%

I don't want to be right about anything that I am saying. I did a lot of SE flying with a really cool captain and he kept telling me I shouldn't worry about a furlough. I think he was just trying to be friendly. Through this experience, I finally figured out how to say this without offending or triggering anyone: "I'm not nervous about a furlough or upset as that would not help. I do however, feel that it would be negligent to not plan on a furlough." Which in reality is exactly what I am doing.

Again. I don't want to be right. I don't want the pilots at SWA to be furloughed either. I'm simply pointing out what the CEO of SWA, the carrier that seemed to be in the best position cash wise is now saying about a staffing reduction.

This is happening and we should all be prepared before October 1.
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That's why I started with "not that I don't agree with you..."

My point only was that one of the reason this specific release that SWA just put out looks so awful is that they just went from zero to 60 (well, 70 actually) in one message, where all of the other carriers have been slowly ramping the level of suck up since this started. I think your bolded statement is a great way of putting it. I'm at about 54% and I'm thinking the same damn way.
 
L-16B said:
Does that mean they will accept those 900? AA has way more applications than acceptance for our early outs. It’s 100% managements choice on how many they accept.
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Well there's also a note that separations begin Sept 1 and go until January 2022. I'm not sure if that's normal or not, but 17 months until they get someone out seems like a long time for things to change. And surely doesn't help us at the bottom, I wouldn't think. Unless that's to retrain the dominoes before that person leaves.

This is all a first time experience for me.
 
Dexter said:
From the latest Delta mgmt town hall: over 900 pilots have already signed up for the early retirement program. Window has been open for 3 days.
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I estimate about 1300. If I were 5 years older, I’d be all over it myself.

Trust me, I really appreciate and cherish my job and the many ancillary opportunities it’s brought, but I don’t feel like re-building an industry from the front row for a third time.
 
Derg said:
I estimate about 1300. If I were 5 years older, I’d be all over it myself.

Trust me, I really appreciate and cherish my job and the many ancillary opportunities it’s brought, but I don’t feel like re-building an industry from the front row for a third time.
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I keep waiting for the, “next punch”. I keep asking myself, “What in the next 2-3 years is going to make this infinitely worse?”
 
chrisreedrules said:
I keep waiting for the, “next punch”. I keep asking myself, “What in the next 2-3 years is going to make this infinitely worse?”
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This right here is what I’m genuinely nervous about. Is oil going to $130/barrel? Terrorist attack? War? The year over year passenger numbers have been recovering consistently at 2% per week. The companies have viable plans to make it back to profitability next year based on current reality. If one big challenge comes along it’s going to be a finishing blow for a lot of them.

I’m not losing sleep over it, but history certainly shows that it’s easily within the realm of possibility.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Flyinthrew said:
This right here is what I’m genuinely nervous about. Is oil going to $130/barrel? Terrorist attack? War? The year over year passenger numbers have been recovering consistently at 2% per week. The companies have viable plans to make it back to profitability next year based on current reality. If one big challenge comes along it’s going to be a finishing blow for a lot of them.

I’m not losing sleep over it, but history certainly shows that it’s easily within the realm of possibility.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Disney is rumored to be cancelling TLJ and rebooting Star Wars ..........
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I did a lot of SE flying with a really cool captain and he kept telling me I shouldn't worry about a furlough. I think he was just trying to be friendly.
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I flew with a few that had this same advice to give. I couldn't figure out with some of them if they were trying to simply make their FO's feel better or really believed this. Which of course concerned me with regard to their grasp of reality or SA shall we say.
Flyinthrew said:
Terrorist attack?
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At the risk of being pessimistic, do you think those who would like to do us harm in this manner aren't chomping at the bit to kick us while we're down?..and distracted?
 
Autothrust Blue said:
The largest hazard to the national security interests of the United States is the current President thereof.
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Not sure why you quoted me here, the two statements aren't related in any way. While an interesting point, that's an entirely different political discussion.
 
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