DogwoodLynx
Well-Known Member
There are already people out there that can’t pay the mortgage. That’s what happens when your income goes away...
Furlough Estimates
- Thread starter ZapBrannigan
- Start date
There are already people out there that can’t pay the mortgage. That’s what happens when your income goes away...
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
I wish I shared your optimism. (Ha! That sounds funny to say)
Before the Covid nightmare SWAPA said they were overstaffed by 700-800 pilots due to the Max. They kept hiring for it expecting it to be back in short order and didn't pull the plug on the hiring until late last year.
The airline is staffing at around 14 pilots per airplane and now they are rotating about 180 airplanes in and out of storage to avoid having to pickle them long term. 180 airplanes is ~ 2500 pilots worth. Plus the 800 originally overstaffed by equals about 3300 pilots. So that means they're currently overstaffed by about 34%.
Only retiring about 160 pilots this year. (560 in 3 years, 1100 in 5 years) So unless there is an impressive early retirement package offered, cuts should go pretty deep. But here's the catch. Upgrade times are (were?) so lengthy that early outs don't really save the company any money. Retire on captain at the top of the pay scale and he/she is just replaced by another Captain at the top of the payscale. So I don't see them jumping at an early retirement program as a solution.
Finally, while I think business travel will recover to some extent, leisure might take a while longer. Too many people losing their jobs and burning through their life savings right now. They're not going to go to Disney World or Vegas Casinos any time soon.
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SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
I can’t really disagree with your analysis. It just seems unfathomable to me for SWA to furlough that many people.
mastermags
Well-Known Member *giggity*
Yep. 13 years in 121, still none of that good TPIC. I’m definitely not flying if they furlough up to me (very likely I’m thinking).
GypsyPilot
Mohawk Town
I mean it really sucks, as I know there are a lot of people that never had a chance at getting TPIC depending on where they were in 121. This career is such a crap shoot, it's scary.
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
I was in the same boat post 9/11. Had never upgraded anywhere but still made it to the majors. All of the sudden I was furloughed and completely unqualified to get hired anywhere else. It made for some tough decisions during the lost decade to try and get some turbine PIC. I left my last major in March of 02 and didn't get back to the majors until Jan of 2014. (Didn't take the recall in 07')
Skipping college or PIC turbine sounds smart when times are good. But when things go tango uniform, you realize what a mistake it was.
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arkflyr
Well-Known Member
Well as one who is 20% from the bottom at SWA I to am concerned and preparing for the worst but I’m also a bit more cautiously optimistic than Zap about the future. Yes we were overstaffed going into this mess, at least they won’t be worried about paying premium now, but they also slowed way back on hiring last year so they have a head start on that. Most importantly the company had little debt to start with, 4 billion in cash plus they have pulled down another 4 billion in credit and that is before we take the $ from the government. So that at least gets us all to the fall, and hopefully past the fog of war we are going through right now.
Also say what you will about GK, he has turned the company into a financial powerhouse and he hates to lose. He is approaching retirement and the 50th anniversary of the company. I think that he would be winding down his role after that and I also like to think that him going out with employees furloughed would be him admitting that his life’s work was a failure. And yes I realize that my line of thinking here is really pie in the sky stuff but what else is there to do at this point.
But yeah it’s been a month to the day since my wife and I came up with our furlough plan and budget. With the mortgage relief in the CARES act we will be good for at least a year, it’s going to suck big time though if it happens.
Also say what you will about GK, he has turned the company into a financial powerhouse and he hates to lose. He is approaching retirement and the 50th anniversary of the company. I think that he would be winding down his role after that and I also like to think that him going out with employees furloughed would be him admitting that his life’s work was a failure. And yes I realize that my line of thinking here is really pie in the sky stuff but what else is there to do at this point.
But yeah it’s been a month to the day since my wife and I came up with our furlough plan and budget. With the mortgage relief in the CARES act we will be good for at least a year, it’s going to suck big time though if it happens.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
So here’s some considerations for all facing the prospect of being out of a job / furloughed in the near future...
1) The CARES act provides an additional $600 /week in unemployment on top of what you’re state (or the state your employer is headquartered in, whichever offers more) currently offers. For many this will work out to be about $1000 /week. Currently this additional $600 /week will last for 6 months. But just like after 2008 I would bet dollars to dimes they extend the provision for a year or even more.
2) Form an LLC. Find any kind of work you can and be a 1099 employee. Write off every penny and claim a loss for however long you can. I do not believe this will affect your ability to claim unemployment.*
The way this whole thing is looking to shake out is going to be rough for the aviation sector. But there are provisions in place that will help soften the fall a little bit. *Disclaimer: I am not an unemployment or accounting professional. Take my advice at your own risk.
1) The CARES act provides an additional $600 /week in unemployment on top of what you’re state (or the state your employer is headquartered in, whichever offers more) currently offers. For many this will work out to be about $1000 /week. Currently this additional $600 /week will last for 6 months. But just like after 2008 I would bet dollars to dimes they extend the provision for a year or even more.
2) Form an LLC. Find any kind of work you can and be a 1099 employee. Write off every penny and claim a loss for however long you can. I do not believe this will affect your ability to claim unemployment.*
The way this whole thing is looking to shake out is going to be rough for the aviation sector. But there are provisions in place that will help soften the fall a little bit. *Disclaimer: I am not an unemployment or accounting professional. Take my advice at your own risk.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
That's funny. When I start crunching numbers I come up right at the end of the furloughed list too. You're about double where I am percentage wise from the bottom.
I think people can really make themselves miserable. I'm trying not to think about it. But I am also planning for the worst October 1.
Mail me your logbook, I can send you some of mine.
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
There are always some people who can’t pay the bills. I’m talking about a situation where most can’t.
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
Just for grins, what are your numbers based on?
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Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Similar boat. Flying at the airlines since 2007, flying 900+ hrs/yr from 2008-2017, I still don’t have 1,000 TPIC. Doing the math, I’m very probable to be downgraded. Re-upgrade around 2022, and then by 2023 I should have 1,000 TPIC. A good 17 yrs of flying at the airlines to get that.
Age 65, 2008-2010 recession, Covid19.
That said, no regrets leaving the regional with 0 TPIC. The key if you do that is to stick it out at your first hired airline. Zap’s story is extremely sad with the timing and 9/11 that had multiple furloughs so one size can’t fit all.
Still, it seems like when I used to fly with CAs in their 50s and 60s, there were many stories about “if I had just stayed at (insert carrier that’s hardly heard of), today I’d be a United 777 CA.” Because that company merged with somebody that eventually became Continental which today is United.
DogwoodLynx
Well-Known Member
Aviation isn’t the only industry out there and in fact our industry relies on a BUNCH of other industries (as I’m sure you know already).
For example, the trade shows industry is GONE right now. I’m not talking entertainment, I’m talking trade shows for companies like Milwaukee Tools and 3M that depend on those shows to showcase technologies that corporations buy to make other products. It’s an enormous industry.
Those people are screwed right now. Lots of small businesses make that industry run and those are going out of business which means the employees aren’t getting paid.
So, when we talk about the Economy being bad right now it’s businesses like these we are speaking of. Airlines, though no less important, are kinda the 3rd wave and people need to remember that.
That’s just one industry out of many affected in the same way.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Mostly a WAG. It’s changing daily. 12 pilots per airplane. 60% load factor on 80% of our airplanes. Very optimistic but possible. Wild card is the number of retirements.
I’m guessing at least 15% of pilots at Eskimo gone by October 1. Maybe another round of 15% depending on speed of recovery.
* I hope a bunch of people jump all over me and tell me how wrong I am. Because that’s normal for JC. Oh and how I’m making my life more difficult and how I messed up everything at XOJET. Because only @mikecweb and other people than myself are allowed to bring that up. Even though they have no idea what happened.
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AA34
Well-Known Member
I’m gonna guess that airlines and aerospace employ far more people and have a much greater economic and social impact than the trade show industry.
DogwoodLynx
Well-Known Member
Yeah but those people don’t have jobs if the trade show industry (along with many many other industries can’t conduct business).
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Looks like all the airlines are accepting the terms of the grants and the partial loans for the payroll protection through Sept 30th. Good news for us, until Oct 1st.
Flyinthrew
Well-Known Member
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
You know we’re all gonna be complaining as soon as flying picks back up.