chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
...if it works, which history has shown, it usually doesn't.
All indications are that it is currently working (obviously) and that it will continue to work. Times are a little bit different now compared to when the flows were first instituted and especially compared to the "lost decade" this industry experienced. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm not personally counting on a flow, but I do think it is worth taking into consideration for the above mentioned reasons. I've only talked to a handful of mostly senior pilots who are counting on it. Some junior pilots for one reason or another. A lot of the logic I hear from new hires has to do with keeping their options open in such a way that the flows to AA allows them to. Get hired at a WO, still able to apply everywhere else and have as good a shot as anyone else at getting hired (we routinely lose more pilots to DA and UA in a month than we do to our flow to AA here at PSA). Off the street hires at the legacies are still heavily favored to those with military experience. That will obviously change some in the coming years, but I think the old adage will still hold true.
Endeavor, though lacking a true "flow" and CommutAir still offer one of the best paths to their respective legacy partners. If I worked for a TSH regional or maybe a couple of the other non-WOs I would take serious note of the current industry trends. AA themselves have said they want to reduce the number of regionals currently providing lift for them over the next few years and the indication is that DA and UA have similar plans. I'll bet a dollar that one of their plans to keep the WOs staffed will be at the expense of other non-WO regionals.
But AA has themselves between a rock and a hard place with the flows. If they slow the flows considerably or stop them altogether, they will see a mass exodus of pilots from their regionals and their flying will suffer. If they continue to take the number of pilots they are currently flowing (and in fact increasing the number in the case of PSA and Piedmont) they will reach a tipping point to where they are hurting their flying also (I personally predict summer/fall 2018 is when this will start to show). They are getting rid of their group 1 aircraft and paying their WOs unheard of sums of money to staff the regional lift. Either they have a madman at the helm or they have another plan. Time will tell what that plan entails. All I know is that it is going to be an interesting few years ahead of us.