"But I've got a flow...?"

I know we like to look at past history, but going forward now with just 4 big legacies, a handful of majors/LCCs, I really think the dnyamics of the industry have changed forever (with the same impact as the 1978 deregulation had). If I was a 23 yr old at Envoy, I'd easily stick it out 6 yrs and see what happens. Most likely, will end up at AA through the flow. Worst case, you're 29 and simply go elsewhere.
Why stick around if you have the possibility to move up.
 
I know we like to look at past history, but going forward now with just 4 big legacies, a handful of majors/LCCs, I really think the dnyamics of the industry have changed forever (with the same impact as the 1978 deregulation had). If I was a 23 yr old at Envoy, I'd easily stick it out 6 yrs and see what happens. Most likely, will end up at AA through the flow. Worst case, you're 29 and simply go elsewhere.

Eek! That's a gamble.

Any flow can end this afternoon with the stroke of a pen or be amended and then you've wasted a lot of your life waiting for something that never came to fruition.

AND say you did wait for the flow, went to AA and discovered that "Hot damn, they're still fighting AA vs TWA vs AAA vs HP here and this blows!" then the golden ring you thought you finally captured may not be a good fit for you.

More simply, I think of it like this. There's a big line for a food truck, you're toward the end and you really can't see the menu. Do you wait, or while waiting, actively re-evaluate what is going to be a lifetime decision?

I just woke up. None of that makes sense probably.
 
Eek! That's a gamble.

Any flow can end this afternoon with the stroke of a pen or be amended and then you've wasted a lot of your life waiting for something that never came to fruition.

That's true. But even Eagle flows from the late 90s/early 2000s started going to AA as of 2013. So they made it, just took a very long time due to the lost decade. The assumption going forward is a 23 yr old newhire Envoy pilot. I'd say throw the apps out there and see what happens, but the whole 6 year deal is either going to come to fruition or not - and he'd only be 29 at the end of it.


AND say you did wait for the flow, went to AA and discovered that "Hot damn, they're still fighting AA vs TWA vs AAA vs HP here and this blows!" then the golden ring you thought you finally captured may not be a good fit for you.

That's a 1st world problem. Honestly, I'd just relish in the fact that 55% of the entire group retires in 10 yrs. I'd love to fly with an East guy beotching about the West. Or a TWA guy about AA. "Didn't you guys get a 51 million settlement with ALPA? I think that means you're buying dinner, right?" I have ways to professionally shut down just about any convo going the wrong way :D

More simply, I think of it like this. There's a big line for a food truck, you're toward the end and you really can't see the menu. Do you wait, or while waiting, actively re-evaluate what is going to be a lifetime decision?

That depends. Is Delta offering catering at their World HQs? If so, I'd skip the food truck and go to a Delta HQ job fair. :)
 
That's my plan. I'm at an AA wholly owned carrier with an estimated 4 years till flowing if none of the trains go off their rails. I'm not yet competitive for a legacy carrier or FX, but I meet their posted mins. So guess what? I'm applying anyways. No one wins the powerball if they don't play. Admittedly, AA is my first choice with or without the flow, because reasons, but I absolutely would not turn down a gig at DL, UA, FX, etc if it came prior to flowing. An offer today at a good company is worth more than having a 'for sure' chance at another one in the future.

I really just want to move back to Phoenix, and I keep my fingers crossed and my glass half full that PHX stays in the picture for AA.
 
That's my plan. I'm at an AA wholly owned carrier with an estimated 4 years till flowing if none of the trains go off their rails. I'm not yet competitive for a legacy carrier or FX, but I meet their posted mins. So guess what? I'm applying anyways. No one wins the powerball if they don't play. Admittedly, AA is my first choice with or without the flow, because reasons, but I absolutely would not turn down a gig at DL, UA, FX, etc if it came prior to flowing. An offer today at a good company is worth more than having a 'for sure' chance at another one in the future.

I really just want to move back to Phoenix, and I keep my fingers crossed and my glass half full that PHX stays in the picture for AA.

There are many reasons to go to AA. Wanting PHX should not be one of them. They cut out 500 crews out of PHX (1000? total). Sure, the flying of PHX itself probably remains but AA is choosing to do that PHX flying with pilots based elsewhere (eg, LAX, DFW, ORD).
 
There are many reasons to go to AA. Wanting PHX should not be one of them. They cut out 500 crews out of PHX (1000? total). Sure, the flying of PHX itself probably remains but AA is choosing to do that PHX flying with pilots based elsewhere (eg, LAX, DFW, ORD).

Not 500 crews, 500 pilots(for now). No displacements yet as the westies have been bailing out all over the place.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not 500 crews, 500 pilots(for now). No displacements yet as the westies have been bailing out all over the place.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think with the forecasted retirements and the ability to move throughout the entire system will prevent displacements out of PHX.
 
There are many reasons to go to AA. Wanting PHX should not be one of them. They cut out 500 crews out of PHX (1000? total). Sure, the flying of PHX itself probably remains but AA is choosing to do that PHX flying with pilots based elsewhere (eg, LAX, DFW, ORD).
I'm aware of the staffing reduction there, and as another person said, it isn't 500 crews.

Still, there is no reason why it can't be one of my reasons to want AA. If I gave the impression that I'm heavily weighing on AA based on PHX, then that was not my intent.
 
I'm aware of the staffing reduction there, and as another person said, it isn't 500 crews.

Still, there is no reason why it can't be one of my reasons to want AA. If I gave the impression that I'm heavily weighing on AA based on PHX, then that was not my intent.

I'm curious what your other reasons for wanting AA are if they aren't domicile related?
 
I work at an AA WO... For anyone longer than 2-3 years away you should be looking at any other legacy or FedEx/UPS unless of course AA is where you want to be. I've seen the numbers though, and for someone in their early-mid 20's they would still make more lifetime earnings by waiting to flow to AA than by taking a job at a major/LCC. Even if it took them 7-8 years to flow. So it makes sense for some, for others not so much. What is great about the flow programs is that they generate continuous movement off the top of the seniority list.
 
I work at an AA WO... For anyone longer than 2-3 years away you should be looking at any other legacy or FedEx/UPS unless of course AA is where you want to be. I've seen the numbers though, and for someone in their early-mid 20's they would still make more lifetime earnings by waiting to flow to AA than by taking a job at a major/LCC. Even if it took them 7-8 years to flow. So it makes sense for some, for others not so much. What is great about the flow programs is that they generate continuous movement off the top of the seniority list.

...if it works, which history has shown, it usually doesn't.
 
One thing is for certain, barring a black swan event, the movement in the industry will look drastically than the lost decade. The competitive barriers to major airlines are starting to drop. Even United is planning to hire 1500 hour pilots who instruct at Lufthansa's Ab Initio Flight School for 18 months. Unless you have significant red ink in your ledger, everyone will make it.

As far as the flow, barring a black swan event it looks like a solid path to a major airline job. I definitely wouldn't sit back and relax on it unless my sole desire/dream was to fly for AA
 
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