Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

[CFI A&P]

Of course the Russians are saying the accident was the result of bird damage. I'd like to see that carcass mailed to the Smithsonian for examination.

 

[🦈💜]

Also, pitch trim runaway can result in ... undesirable flight characteristics, where the only way to keep flying is to bank the airplane in a series of turns until the trim can be brought back into range or overridden. I've often thought about what I'd do if it couldn't. Shift passengers for CG?

... apparently that may have been something that was done here.

Do with that information what you will.

 

[Roger Roger]

Also, pitch trim runaway can result in ... undesirable flight characteristics, where the only way to keep flying is to bank the airplane in a series of turns until the trim can be brought back into range or overridden. I've often thought about what I'd do if it couldn't. Shift passengers for CG?

... apparently that may have been something that was done here.

Do with that information what you will.

Or, say, installing the pitch trim switch upside down.

 

[🦈💜]

I will say that if appearances hold true, that whole crew may be heroes for saving anybody. It would have been one helluva fight.

 

[🦈💜]

Or, say, installing the pitch trim switch upside down.

This can be largely addressed with procedure.

 

[🦈💜]

This can be largely addressed with procedure.

(And for Captain Happy®, I don't mean running the QRH. I mean systemic procedure that involves appropriate checks for accurate direction of motion as part of the preflight inspection. Not that it's not still possible to miss, just a reason to be cautious.)

 

[azmedic]

One hell of a metal flock of birds they supposedly hit…

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[JordanD]

I will say that if appearances hold true, that whole crew may be heroes for saving anybody. It would have been one helluva fight.

I wonder if any of the crew made it out alive, but judging by the angle they went in I’m assuming not

 

[🦈💜]

I wonder if any of the crew made it out alive, but judging by the angle they went in I’m assuming not

That is also my assumption.

 

[Roger Roger]

If so, it's morbidly impressive how many modern commercial airliners have been lost due to the Russia\Ukraine conflict (I count the Donbass region civil war in that as well) vs all the other conflicts in modern history where aircraft being flown by reputable carriers (AZAL has been around a long time and was the first airline in the Aeroflot break up to build up a Western fleet with 757s and 737s and have unrestricted growth in Europe) aren't being blown out of the sky...

Hmm, I wonder what the common factor of these could be…definitely not Russia being a •hole, they’re just defending their legitimate security interests.

 

[mightynimbus]

I wonder if any of the crew made it out alive, but judging by the angle they went in I’m assuming not

A news clip I saw said one FA, condition unknown.
I might be seeing it wrong, but the flight deck just,...well...ugh

 

[JordanD]

Hmm, I wonder what the common factor of these could be…definitely not Russia being a •hole, they’re just defending their legitimate security interests.

Would have been nice if the rest of the world had decided they had enough of their bullcrap, but I guess instead everyone wants to follow their lead and fall for their propaganda.

 

[MikeD]

Hmm, I wonder what the common factor of these could be…definitely not Russia being a •hole, they’re just defending their legitimate security interests.

Would have been nice if the rest of the world had decided they had enough of their bullcrap, but I guess instead everyone wants to follow their lead and fall for their propaganda.

Thing is, Russia and Azerbaijan aren’t enemies. They have strengthening ties in a number of realms, even though Azerbaijan maintains generally friendly to neutral relations with Ukraine also. With Russian reliance on the potential for export routes for oil through Azerbaijan, there’s no reason Russia would want to shoot down one of their airliners intentionally, nor would there be any reason for Ukraine to do so and create an enemy from what is mostly a neighbor they don’t really have a beef with.

I could see the potential for some kind of accidental engagement though, with the number of friendly fire accidents there already have been there both ground to air and ground to ground; though these are mostly the result of Russia/Ukraine operating some of the same equipment. One would think one can discern an airliner visually, but (going along with this theory) if it was an engagement based on EID, well, that isn’t always the most accurate, as has been seen. Or if a WF fire doctrine is being utilized that is system dependent, same same.

 

[Roger Roger]

Thing is, Russia and Azerbaijan aren’t enemies. They have strengthening ties in a number of realms, even though Azerbaijan maintains generally friendly to neutral relations with Ukraine also. With Russian reliance on the potential for export routes for oil through Azerbaijan, there’s no reason Russia would want to shoot down one of their airliners intentionally, nor would there be any reason for Ukraine to do so and create an enemy from what is mostly a neighbor they don’t really have a beef with.

I could see the potential for some kind of accidental engagement though, with the number of friendly fire accidents there already have been there both ground to air and ground to ground; though these are mostly the result of Russia/Ukraine operating some of the same equipment. One would think one can discern an airliner visually, but (going along with this theory) if it was an engagement based on EID, well, that isn’t always the most accurate, as has been seen. Or if a WF fire doctrine is being utilized that is system dependent, same same.

Given the stunning displays of competence from Russia on the battlefield, if this turns out to be a shoot down I’d bet my holiday paycheck on an AA crew being poorly trained, stupid, and trigger happy just like with the Malaysian plane.

 

[Inverted]

Thing is, Russia and Azerbaijan aren’t enemies.

Russia and Malaysia aren't enemies either...

 

[JordanD]

Thing is, Russia and Azerbaijan aren’t enemies. They have strengthening ties in a number of realms, even though Azerbaijan maintains generally friendly to neutral relations with Ukraine also. With Russian reliance on the potential for export routes for oil through Azerbaijan, there’s no reason Russia would want to shoot down one of their airliners intentionally, nor would there be any reason for Ukraine to do so and create an enemy from what is mostly a neighbor they don’t really have a beef with.

I could see the potential for some kind of accidental engagement though, with the number of friendly fire accidents there already have been there both ground to air and ground to ground; though these are mostly the result of Russia/Ukraine operating some of the same equipment. One would think one can discern an airliner visually, but (going along with this theory) if it was an engagement based on EID, well, that isn’t always the most accurate, as has been seen. Or if a WF fire doctrine is being utilized that is system dependent, same same.

Not that it absolves blame or brings back the dead, but at least when the U.S. accidentally shot down Iran Air there was at least some level of "oh crap, we messed up and shot it down" pretty soon, other than "no, it was totally a bird strike bro, believe me." And also Russia's habit of shooting down civilian airliners with a pretty "ok, we don't care" attitude within the last decade. Even if it turns out Russia wasn't the culprit in this case, everything I've said about them still stands.

 

[MikeD]

Russia and Malaysia aren't enemies either...

Not that it absolves blame or brings back the dead, but at least when the U.S. accidentally shot down Iran Air there was at least some level of "oh crap, we messed up and shot it down" pretty soon, other than "no, it was totally a bird strike bro, believe me." And also Russia's habit of shooting down civilian airliners with a pretty "ok, we don't care" attitude within the last decade. Even if it turns out Russia wasn't the culprit in this case, everything I've said about them still stands.

Difference here is more than that, Russia needs Azerbaijani for some things, and it would be unwise to target a plane of theirs intentionality, if for none other than that.

I still would place any shootdown on some form of personnel or system not being up to par on doing the job of threat ID.

This could very well be Russia. Who knows. My only point is that I don’t see any major players intentionally having done this. It benefits none of them to do so, simply due to who Azerbaijan is there, not to mention the concept of targeting a civilian airliner on purpose in the first place. Even if wanting to try and blame it on the other guy, the truth of that would come out soon enough also.

 

[JordanD]

Difference here is more than that, Russia needs Azerbaijani for some things, and it would be unwise to target a plane of theirs intentionality, if for none other than that.

I still would place any shootdown on some form of personnel or system not being up to par on doing the job of threat ID.

This could very well be Russia. Who knows. My only point is that I don’t see any major players intentionally having done this. It benefits none of them to do so, simply due to who Azerbaijan is there, not to mention the concept of targeting a civilian airliner in the first place.

Like I said, two civilian airliner shootdowns in a decade makes it pretty clear that even if it's an "accident", they don't care enough to ensure it doesn't happen.

 

[MikeD]

Like I said, two civilian airliner shootdowns in a decade makes it pretty clear that even if it's an "accident", they don't care enough to ensure it doesn't happen.

No argument there. Even if an accident; there will be a lot of explaining to do, and it could very well have the same political effect as if it had been done intentionally.

Air Defense Arty of numerous countries don’t have a very good track record, the US included.

 

[JordanD]

No argument there. Even if an accident; there will be a lot of explaining to do, and it could very well have the same political effect as if it had been done intentionally.

Air Defense Arty of numerous countries don’t have a very good track record, the US included.

Yeah, that's my other point, Russia will never explain, they'll just try to gaslight the entire world at best. Or at worst just say "Yeah? And what are you gonna do about it?" and the answer will be a resounding "Oh. Nothing, I guess."