Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Since we’re diving into politics…

Azerbaijan relied on Russian complicity during the Nagorno-Karabakh wars. Notionally both Armenia and the Azeris were members of the CTSO and Russia was supposed to be present as peacekeepers after the first conflict, and brokering negotiations. However those troops reportedly folded and fled at the first aggression from Azerbaijan in 2022.

Azerbaijan needs a friendly Russia.
 
Azerbaijan needs a friendly Russia.

They don’t need Russia as a major trade partner and Russian leadership would topple with the suggestion of aggression against Azerbaijan.

Within a few years, I’m betting Azerbaijan will acquire a nuclear capability.
 
Maybe but they also just announced that Russian passport holders will be limited to 90 days in country within a year. Currently it is unlimited. This is technically in response to Russia changing their rule first, but that change was announced months ago, and Azerbaijan me their announcement two days after the shoot down and just 2 days before the change goes into effect.

Russia may also welcome this because there’s a lot of draft age males chilling in Azer
 
Azerbaijan is playing chess while others are playing checkers. Azerbaijan carefully plays the non-aligned card, keeping Russia happy by not buying F-16’s and flirting with NATO.

Strong trade and amiable diplomacy with the west while maintaining good relationships with Russia, Turkey, Iran. and Israel. National and ethnic identity calms Sunni-Shia divide. Fascinating.

Smart on them. They can see what's happened/ing in Georgia and Ukraine.

As Kissinger said,

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”​


We may fund and stir sh#t up in this part of the world. But ultimately it is Russia's backyard and we're not going to have your back sufficiently to protect you.
 
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