AS application question-employment history

[ShortField]

Gloom and doom talk. There are no furloughs here. And AS is also making money hand over fist. Panic has started with the lease returns which is what people are referring to as “shrinkage.” We returned 1 Bus this year and will return 2 in 2020. The bulk of the Bus lease returns are from 2021-2024. An educated guess says we will return to an all Boeing fleet but because the MAX is still grounded, they haven’t made an announcement. But the MAX will fly in 2020 and AS will make a large aircraft order.

There is a big shift in flying, more mainline out of SEA on Bus and intra California more on QX/SKY. News articles saying Bus to MKE and MSO plus the frequency increases as well in various cities (like PIT). For pilots though the question is what does that mean for SF/LA Airbus bases? Will they open a SEA Bus base? That would be costly with numerous Boeing guys bidding Airbus.

The question of a SEA bus base is a curious one. At one point they’d said we need 40 departures a day to justify a base. Last I heard the bus is over 50 a day from SEA now and still crickets about opening a base. I understand it’s a costly endeavor but I wonder what else is holding them back.

 

[ShortField]

There have been nearly 500 pilots hired in the last two years. What are you saying?

I’m right at the beginning of that wave and if I faced an involuntary job loss it would be pretty grim times indeed.


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I feel like you’re safe from being furloughed. It’s always a good idea to plan for the worst case scenario, but that seems pretty far fetched. The max will fly again. Time will keep rockin on.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

The question of a SEA bus base is a curious one. At one point they’d said we need 40 departures a day to justify a base. Last I heard the bus is over 50 a day from SEA now and still crickets about opening a base. I understand it’s a costly endeavor but I wonder what else is holding them back.

IF the plan is to single fleet, then it doesn’t make sense to open a Bus SEA base: pay for all Boeing guys training to Airbus and paid moves for any Bus guy going up to SEA, and paid displacement moves down south as appropriate.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Gloom and doom talk. There are no furloughs here. And AS is also making money hand over fist. Panic has started with the lease returns which is what people are referring to as “shrinkage.” We returned 1 Bus this year and will return 2 in 2020. The bulk of the Bus lease returns are from 2021-2024. An educated guess says we will return to an all Boeing fleet but because the MAX is still grounded, they haven’t made an announcement. But the MAX will fly in 2020 and AS will make a large aircraft order.

There is a big shift in flying, more mainline out of SEA on Bus and intra California more on QX/SKY. News articles saying Bus to MKE and MSO plus the frequency increases as well in various cities (like PIT). For pilots though the question is what does that mean for SF/LA Airbus bases? Will they open a SEA Bus base? That would be costly with numerous Boeing guys bidding Airbus.

Don't front! You know you're updating your Delta app on Airlineapps.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Don't front! You know you're updating your Delta app on Airlineapps.

I really, REALLY hope you aren’t one of those Delta-only guys. Don’t put all those eggs in one basket. That’s back fired for plenty of people.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

I really, REALLY hope you aren’t one of those Delta-only guys. Don’t put all those eggs in one basket. That’s backfired for plenty of people.

Ha! At forty-three and just starting to finish up my commercial rating. Oh, and I didn't graduate university in four years. And I had only a slightly above average GPA, in both high school and college. I'm not Delta material, I know that already and I'm okay with it. I have another legacy in mind. If all works out I'll be legacy ready in four to five years time from now, barring major catastrophe. If that legacy doesn't work out, I'll just be glad to have a seat, period. Anywhere. At any legacy, cargo outfit or LCC. And I'll be damn happy. I definitely have my favorites. But don't have all my eggs in one basket. I'm realistic.

 

[///AMG]

Gloom and doom talk. There are no furloughs here. And AS is also making money hand over fist. Panic has started with the lease returns which is what people are referring to as “shrinkage.” We returned 1 Bus this year and will return 2 in 2020. The bulk of the Bus lease returns are from 2021-2024. An educated guess says we will return to an all Boeing fleet but because the MAX is still grounded, they haven’t made an announcement. But the MAX will fly in 2020 and AS will make a large aircraft order.

There is a big shift in flying, more mainline out of SEA on Bus and intra California more on QX/SKY. News articles saying Bus to MKE and MSO plus the frequency increases as well in various cities (like PIT). For pilots though the question is what does that mean for SF/LA Airbus bases? Will they open a SEA Bus base? That would be costly with numerous Boeing guys bidding Airbus.

Seems like if they are trying to build themselves into a more nationally robust airline, which I believe is the case, it makes sense to spread the long haul mainline jets (of which there are finite numbers) into the long haul routes. I've heard talk of them keeping the 321's from a noteworthy source, in order to maintain an ETOPS balance to the fleet. UAL flies predominantly regional jets on similar legs throughout the west coast. Perhaps they are looking to just adopt a similar business model. I get that there isn't scope protection in the current labor agreement, which is probably worrisome given this plan, but is this actually the harbinger of QX taking over the operation, or relegating mainline ops to just a few routes and cutting bodies? I guess only you guys can say, but as an outsider, I wouldn't think that to be the case.

 

[Reserve4Ever]

Seems like if they are trying to build themselves into a more nationally robust airline, which I believe is the case, it makes sense to spread the long haul mainline jets (of which there are finite numbers) into the long haul routes. I've heard talk of them keeping the 321's from a noteworthy source, in order to maintain an ETOPS balance to the fleet. UAL flies predominantly regional jets on similar legs throughout the west coast. Perhaps they are looking to just adopt a similar business model. I get that there isn't scope protection in the current labor agreement, which is probably worrisome given this plan, but is this actually the harbinger of QX taking over the operation, or relegating mainline ops to just a few routes and cutting bodies? I guess only you guys can say, but as an outsider, I wouldn't think that to be the case.

“Nationally robust airline”
Thank you, I needed a really good laugh

 

[///AMG]

“Nationally robust airline”
Thank you, I needed a really good laugh

Not saying they will get there...or maybe they are there already.....I don't know what the definition of that term I just made up is......but you know......like an airline that flies around

 

[alaskadrifter]

Got this email:

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Seems like if they are trying to build themselves into a more nationally robust airline, which I believe is the case, it makes sense to spread the long haul mainline jets (of which there are finite numbers) into the long haul routes. I've heard talk of them keeping the 321's from a noteworthy source, in order to maintain an ETOPS balance to the fleet. UAL flies predominantly regional jets on similar legs throughout the west coast. Perhaps they are looking to just adopt a similar business model. I get that there isn't scope protection in the current labor agreement, which is probably worrisome given this plan, but is this actually the harbinger of QX taking over the operation, or relegating mainline ops to just a few routes and cutting bodies? I guess only you guys can say, but as an outsider, I wouldn't think that to be the case.

They have a growth plan and apparently a 5-10 yr plan coming out next week via employee onsite meetings. The merger has had a lot of gloom and doom outlooks but the financial numbers look strong and they are going to grow - they have to, otherwise be forced another acquisition/merger scenario.

 

[ShortField]

Window opened today.

 

[Skåning]

They have a growth plan

 

[RMCBear08]

Per the email that was sent out yesterday:

SEA will now become a joint 737-Airbus base, at the expense of LAX which will slowly wind down and eventually close sometime next year (Airbus, not 737).

Sounds like the MAX situation is forcing them to keep the Arbi around longer than they had planned (hoped?) and instead of keeping crews deadheading to/from and overnighting in SEA for the foreseeable future, it made more sense to just open a base. I image it will go relatively senior.

New bid to open in April with 80 new hire positions to be filled. Not sure how many of that 80, if any, have been hired yet.

 

[Skåning]

LAX closing the 320 base is horrible. VX guys are pissed and a lot of guppy FOs will be pushed down to reserve.

 

[grkero]

Oh Alaska

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

LAX closing the 320 base is horrible. VX guys are pissed and a lot of guppy FOs will be pushed down to reserve.

You’re about to have a mass displacement of Boeing LAX Captains. When you look at the plug A320 LAX Captain, there are 40+ Boeing LAX CAs junior to that guy. All those Boeing guys are displacement fodder.

Now that I live here, I’m gonna bid LAX 320 CA as #1 and LAX Boeing CA as #2. That way it will show as an official displacement. But no matter which way you look at it, there are 174 CAs and 176 FOs in 320 LA that have to be reduced. They have to go somewhere and most openings seem to be in SEA. With the potential for current senior SEA folks bidding into SEA bus for the seniority advantage, I can see system displacements as this whole thing shakes out.

It’s gonna get ugly.

 

[alaskadrifter]

Sounds like AS is shrinking when everyone else is growing?

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Sounds like AS is shrinking when everyone else is growing?

Correct.

There is dangling carrot “growth” plan but it’s just empty promises at this point.

Everything depends on the MAX. Not very reassuring.


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[BEEF SUPREME]

I’m sure that the training costs for AS will be quite high for the foreseeable future for not only switching airframes. Also costs will increase as the MAX training will be done by seniority.


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