AA Wholly Owned Upgrade/Flow

AA will cut back on their flow as it hurts their regional flights, its just a matter of time. Yes its contractual, yes it will take many many years to grieve it to rectify it.
 
L-16B said:
AA will cut back on their flow as it hurts their regional flights, its just a matter of time. Yes its contractual, yes it will take many many years to grieve it to rectify it.
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And then that will further hurt their regional flights because they will start bleeding pilots. Kind of nice, neat little corner they've painted themselves into.
 
chrisreedrules said:
That is one possible outcome. However like I said above, this recent development shows that AAG still believes it is significantly cheaper to pay its WOs more money than to either farm the flying out or bring the aircraft to mainline... And it will still remain significantly cheaper to do so when they raise pay and offer even higher bonuses again. They are going to invest what it takes to staff us until it doesn't make sense to fly the 76 seaters at a regional anymore. I'm not trying to paint an incredibly rosy picture of the WOs, because we all certainly have our issues. However I don't think they are a bad career choice and I also don't think that the flow is going to just go away as some imply.
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But yet OO just got 30 more 700s for AA. It might be significantly cheaper, but staffing continues to be an issue at the WO carriers.
 
word302 said:
But yet OO just got 30 more 700s for AA. It might be significantly cheaper, but staffing continues to be an issue at the WO carriers.
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Because you have the aircraft and the pilots already. If conceivably, PSA wasn't WO, and flew for multiple carriers, and had 30 airplanes coming off contract with one carrier and the pilots to fly them, why wouldn't another carrier want them? The flying will go where the pilots are. And it seems for now, that AAG is willing to spend what it costs to attract and retain the pilots at their WOs. Look, there are pros and cons to a lot of different regionals. I've always been honest and open with others on here about my experiences in this industry and my thoughts (good and bad). I'm not selling the kool-aid like some on the forums. I'm just saying that coming to a WO isn't a bad choice.
 
chrisreedrules said:
You aren't wrong. But you're oversimplifying it as well. And, my reply below will honestly be an oversimplification of everything because there are many more factors that go into projected flow times...

Look at it from a numbers perspective. There are 3 legacies with a ton of retirements that many would consider to be the "pinnacle" of an airline pilot career if flying passengers is your thing. Those being United, Delta, and American. They have the best pay, the best contracts, and the best retirement (again, not including fedex and ups, which are also excellent). It would seem that American is doubling down on its commitment to prop up its regional lift through the wholly owned regionals. And they will basically be roughly 65-75% of classes at American going forward. And let's say that another 15-20% of American's classes will be filled by military guys. That leaves 5-10% for off the street "average Joes". Delta traditionally hires almost 50% military. And United I think is around 30%. So if you don't work at a WO, you already eliminate 1/3 choices essentially. And you will be competing with a lot more guys at both Delta and United that are more qualified than you. So from a numbers game perspective, it makes sense to go work for a WO, and keep applying anywhere else you want to go. Many (myself included) have said that the flow can stop. And that is true. However, American has shown that it will likely do what it takes to staff it's WOs. So I wouldn't count on them letting the flow or growth fail.
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All valid points but in your opinion...do you think if someone wants to go to Delta the best regional they could go to is Endeavor?

That's an honest question...no sarcasm.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Because you have the aircraft and the pilots already. If conceivably, PSA wasn't WO, and flew for multiple carriers, and had 30 airplanes coming off contract with one carrier and the pilots to fly them, why wouldn't another carrier want them? The flying will go where the pilots are. And it seems for now, that AAG is willing to spend what it costs to attract and retain the pilots at their WOs. Look, there are pros and cons to a lot of different regionals. I've always been honest and open with others on here about my experiences in this industry and my thoughts (good and bad). I'm not selling the kool-aid like some on the forums. I'm just saying that coming to a WO isn't a bad choice.
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We are totally in agreement. I just have to chuckle at the 2.5 year upgrade/6 year flow crap that the Envoy cheerleaders have been selling for quite some time. Go where you can stand being stuck for a while, make the best of it while you're there. Update apps/network daily.
 
chrisreedrules said:
And then that will further hurt their regional flights because they will start bleeding pilots. Kind of nice, neat little corner they've painted themselves into.
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Everyone should want that. As always they are the last person to the party. But even the last girl at the party goes home with a guy.

We want the regionals to choke out and die. So should everyone at a regional.
 
tcco94 said:
All valid points but in your opinion...do you think if someone wants to go to Delta the best regional they could go to is Endeavor?

That's an honest question...no sarcasm.
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I think statistically speaking, Endeavor sends the most pilots to Delta of any regional. And Delta seems as committed to them as AAG does to its WOs. Take that for what you will...
 
word302 said:
We are totally in agreement. I just have to chuckle at the 2.5 year upgrade/6 year flow crap that the Envoy cheerleaders have been selling for quite some time. Go where you can stand being stuck for a while, make the best of it while you're there. Update apps/network daily.
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Which is what I kinda figured was the most important part of the decision...also, trying to avoid going to an unstable company with collapse in the not so near future...
 
Serious question.... Does anyone have stats on flight schools and new students starting in the industry in the last year or two? It doesn't matter what happens with pay and flow if there is not enough guys entering the system. I have seen the price tag of my old two year program, it has risen from 70k to almost 90k since 2012. That is just for a two year degree and ratings, throw in the cost for the four year and you are now 120k in debt before you meet insurance mins at most 135 outfits, let alone 1500 hours. Also, with shaving the VA bennies because of poor judgement by a few flight schools, veterans are no longer considering this career due to the out of pocket costs vs time to qualify and pay at the bottom feeders. I have known atleast five guys on a personal basis that said eff it, and used their bennies for a more lucrative career.

I have also noticed the costs rising at local FBO's. Is it even possible to go from zero to CFI sub 50k anymore? Add that to the rising cost of a "regular" college degree and again, you are close to six figures in the hole. I believe that is what the industry needs to attack, the cost of training in order to get here. I cringe when I hear my fellow coworkers say they have over 700 a month in student debt/loans while making 25-30k. Granted 50k will help, the pay alone will not be enough to continue to attract pilots into the industry IMHO...

If it wasn't for the GI Bill, I would have not followed this dream I have had and would be lurking on this forum as an outsider. I am positive that many out there wish they could fly for a living, but the barriers are just too high, even for a now 50k a year regional job.

Yet another question... How is CFI pay these days? The main reason I bypassed CFI was because I was concerned about the pay. 18 a flight hour and no guarantee did not sound like a stable job to me. Are schools giving CFI's salaries? Or offering incentives such as reimbursing them for the money they spent on their own flight training? Fixing these issues prior to even the regional industry will be what keeps the supply great enough to withstand the massive amounts of attrition in the next ten years. It is common sense that if few people enter, few will make it to 1500 to replace YOU when it is your time to flow.

Sorry for the thread drift, I just feel like we are thinking about the now with all this flow talk, it's all good if we can attract new candidates. For right now, all the new pay rates will do is poach from other low paying regionals and attract those that are currently flying for a paycheck and are within a year of hitting 1500.
 
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JDean3204 said:
Serious question.... Does anyone have stats on flight schools and new students starting in the industry in the last year or two? It doesn't matter what happens with pay and flow if there is not enough guys entering the system. I have seen the price tag of my old two year program, it has risen from 70k to almost 90k since 2012. That is just for a two year degree and ratings, throw in the cost for the four year and you are now 120k in debt before you meet insurance mins at most 135 outfits, let alone 1500 hours. Also, with shaving the VA bennies because of poor judgement by a few flight schools, veterans are no longer considering this career due to the out of pocket costs vs time to qualify and pay at the bottom feeders. I have known atleast five guys on a personal basis that said eff it, and used their bennies for a more lucrative career.

I have also noticed the costs rising at local FBO's. Is it even possible to go from zero to CFI sub 50k anymore? Add that to the rising cost of a "regular" college degree and again, you are close to six figures in the hole. I believe that is what the industry needs to attack, the cost of training in order to get here. I cringe when I hear my comrades say they have over 700 a month in student debt/loans while making 25-30k. Granted 50k will help, the pay alone will not be enough to continue to attract pilots into the industry IMHO...

If it wasn't for the GI Bill, I would have not followed this dream I have had and would be lurking on this forum as an outsider. I am positive that many out there wish they could fly for a living, but the barriers are just too high, even for a now 50k a year regional job.

Yet another question... How is CFI pay these days? The main reason I bypassed CFI was because I was concerned about the pay. 18 a flight hour and no guarantee did not sound like a stable job to me. Are schools giving CFI's salaries? Or offering incentives such as reimbursing them for the money they spent on their own flight training? Fixing these issues prior to even the regional industry will be what keeps the supply great enough to withstand the massive amounts of attrition in the next ten years.

Sorry for the thread drift, I just feel like we are thinking about the now with all this flow talk, it's all good if we can attract new candidates. For right now, all the new pay rates will do is poach from other low paying regionals and attract those that are currently flying for a paycheck and are within a year of hitting 1500.
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I can answer CFI pay for you from what I know. Pay hourly is usually around $20-25 depending on how much you can teach. I've heard of more and also less but usually around that ballpark. I'm in Phoenix. Some schools out here give salary $40k and my school does $28k with a $5k sign on bonus. ATP does reimbursement for college but not sure how it works. I work 5 10's so my hourly rate is severely down from most places but I get a lot of hours (that's their way of justifying the pay lol). Pretty much the trend for us (that I heard in a meeting this year) is 90-95% leave upon reaching hours (for 135 or 121 or another school). We have 5 regionals show up every month to give their pitch, do interviews, and give out their "swag" and buy lunch for every new hire class. We had GoJet I believe fly in a CRJ700 last month also as a candy device to get attention. Most people at my shop end up at Skywest and Envoy. Some go to some other regionals but it seems like that's my trend here. Lots love the "5 YEAR FLOW JOIN NOW AND GET A320/777 SEAT" almost immediately without even thinking or weighing their options. A few wait it out and go to Envoy without even doing that CFI flow program also.
 
tcco94 said:
I can answer CFI pay for you from what I know. Pay hourly is usually around $20-25 depending on how much you can teach. I've heard of more and also less but usually around that ballpark. I'm in Phoenix. Some schools out here give salary $40k and my school does $28k with a $5k sign on bonus. ATP does reimbursement for college but not sure how it works. I work 5 10's so my hourly rate is severely down from most places but I get a lot of hours (that's their way of justifying the pay lol). Pretty much the trend for us (that I heard in a meeting this year) is 90-95% leave upon reaching hours (for 135 or 121 or another school). We have 5 regionals show up every month to give their pitch, do interviews, and give out their "swag" and buy lunch for every new hire class. We had GoJet I believe fly in a CRJ700 last month also as a candy device to get attention. Most people at my shop end up at Skywest and Envoy. Some go to some other regionals but it seems like that's my trend here. Lots love the "5 YEAR FLOW JOIN NOW AND GET A320/777 SEAT" almost immediately without even thinking or weighing their options. A few wait it out and go to Envoy without even doing that CFI flow program also.
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Just out of curiosity, how many of your students will be a few years in trail behind you entering our system? Or is it a pilot mill for foreign carriers that are forward thinking and trying to mitigate their own pilot shortage prior to it happening?
 
JDean3204 said:
Just out of curiosity, how many of your students will be a few years in trail behind you entering our system? Or is it a pilot mill for foreign carriers that are forward thinking and trying to mitigate their own pilot shortage prior to it happening?
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Pilot mill of foreign students...the programs with American students I don't teach. I'd say they're 1 1/2-2 years trail behind since they need 1500. Most new hires at my shop need 1500 and usually enter with 250-300. Takes them about 1 1/2 years +
 
tcco94 said:
Pilot mill of foreign students...the programs with American students I don't teach. I'd say they're 1 1/2-2 years trail behind since they need 1500. Most new hires at my shop need 1500 and usually enter with 250-300. Takes them about 1 1/2 years +
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How full are those programs? Does there seem to be a good supply of domestic students? I know my old flight school now is like 90% foreign...
 
JDean3204 said:
How full are those programs? Does there seem to be a good supply of domestic students? I know my old flight school now is like 90% foreign...
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Pretty small flow but my company just connected with a regional to create a new domestic program.. We just got bought out and they're attempting to do a zero to hero program with an airline involved and looking to expand nationwide(pretty much ATP style)....so we'll see how it works but I won't be around here when it happens. We are about 90% foreign as well.

They definitely are favoring American students though. Getting new glass cockpit airplanes this month...only American students can fly them. American students have #1 priority on checkrides and aircraft availability so I'll get bumped every day of the week if there is only 1 airplane left etc.
 
Im at YV and have been for the last ~750 hours or so. I have 4000 hours part 91 and the 750 part 121 SIC, obviously.
Upgrades at YV have slowed, but not stopped. I'm looking at least another 8-9 months before I'd have a chance, in all likelihood.
My plan has been to upgrade if I'm still around, but in the meantime to look into some companies like Frontier, Spirit, Jetblue, Virgin America, maybe even Atlas.
With this latest info, should I consider a lateral move to Envoy?
I know upgrade would be further off, despite coming in with 121 experience, but the possibility of a flow to AA is interesting.
How long is reserve running and what are the reserve rules? YV may have its issues and I only earn $22k/year, but I'm holding a line and have a decent QOL as a result- reserve sucked and I know that was partly she to lousy rules but I doubt reserve anywhere is glorious.
 
tcco94 said:
Pretty small flow but my company just connected with a regional to create a new domestic program.. We just got bought out and they're attempting to do a zero to hero program with an airline involved and looking to expand nationwide(pretty much ATP style)....so we'll see how it works but I won't be around here when it happens. We are about 90% foreign as well.

They definitely are favoring American students though. Getting new glass cockpit airplanes this month...only American students can fly them. American students have #1 priority on checkrides and aircraft availability so I'll get bumped every day of the week if there is only 1 airplane left etc.
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We have the newest and most advanced fleet out there
 
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