Are we on the precipice of another lost decade?

Agreed about the doom fetish crap, but in this case, @ZapBrannigan has been through the wringer and back during his career so I totally get it.
Yeah, not accusing him of it, but seemed like an apt thread to bring it up because it does seem to run rampant in pilot discussion circles.
 
Yeah, not accusing him of it, but seemed like an apt thread to bring it up because it does seem to run rampant in pilot discussion circles.
Agreed. A dude from my shop went off the rails about the Spirit suspending hiring news and foretold doom and gloom for us all. He’s a super senior pilot with no worry of furlough but lost his poop about it anyway. It’s weird.
 
Agreed. A dude from my shop went off the rails about the Spirit suspending hiring news and foretold doom and gloom for us all. He’s a super senior pilot with no worry of furlough but lost his poop about it anyway. It’s weird.
I think I get annoyed by it just because actually thinking about it does make me slightly nervous, but it's also one of those things where I feel like people either use it as an excuse to not go somewhere else or to talk negatively about people that do. Looking at how things have shaken up now, I can't believe I'd be much better of if I'd stayed any of the places I did.
 
I think this time of year is pretty doom and gloom for investments. During the autumn everyone seems to freak out. I remember it vividly last year because it was the main argument to vote yes on the labor contract where I work.


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Man. People are still talking about this huh.
 
Yeah. Still wrong about economic predictions a year later. I wasn’t aware of the October effect until last year:



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Well my guess was 2023-2024.

We aren’t out of the woods.

I’m happy with 340.25, aren’t you?
 
Well my guess was 2023-2024.

We aren’t out of the woods.

I’m happy with 340.25, aren’t you?

Like they say "payscale isn't everything". I'm just pointing out this happens every year, in the autumn. I didn't really realize it was a historical thing until I researched it during our contract talks. Not really here to argue about the merits of our contract. What's done is done.
 
Fair enough. But that said, the losses of several major airlines, two wars, stagnant inflation, people running out of savings, none of it bears good news for our industry.
 

Maybe, but they’re pretty explicitly not touching the frontline thus far.

Trust me, this is a healthy thing.


Moving up the levels to earn more money was once based upon how many people reported to you. So you had layers and layers of support people, support-support people and support people who supported those that were supporting support people. So a number of dumb decisions were made because there was little accountability because it became rule by committee and not decision-making by leaders.

I have my own personal examples, but they're not for the internet.
 
Trust me, this is a healthy thing.


Moving up the levels to earn more money was once based upon how many people reported to you. So you had layers and layers of support people, support-support people and support people who supported those that were supporting support people. So a number of dumb decisions were made because there was little accountability because it became rule by committee and not decision-making by leaders.

I have my own personal examples, but they're not for the internet.
Waking the operation up to capture the travel demand starting in 2021 has been wild Wild West. It stands to reason that some shops would overhire. However, it’s pretty low rent how this is cut back appears to be getting done. HR theory at its finest.
 
Trust me, this is a healthy thing.


Moving up the levels to earn more money was once based upon how many people reported to you. So you had layers and layers of support people, support-support people and support people who supported those that were supporting support people. So a number of dumb decisions were made because there was little accountability because it became rule by committee and not decision-making by leaders.

I have my own personal examples, but they're not for the internet.
The inevitable bloat of business. When things shift from being nimble and scrappy to defending fiefdoms and attacking what would be perceived threats from other departments. I saw it happen at the Part 91 job I had for a financial services company and now at the the little redneck airline.
 
Waking the operation up to capture the travel demand starting in 2021 has been wild Wild West. It stands to reason that some shops would overhire. However, it’s pretty low rent how this is cut back appears to be getting done. HR theory at its finest.

I can't tell you how a job that was literally four people, a mid-tier bar four-top, some drinks, some notes on a bar napkin and executing a plan the next morning at 0800 became a team of 30 people, MS Teams meetings to figure out when the actual meeting was going to be, positive space tickets to HQ, catering, "one pagers"/executive summaries, running things past 'legal' and costing and, at the end of the day, the plan went stale and never gets executed until your competitor executes it and "we need to scramble and regroup, so lets have a Teams meeting to figure out what the strategy is"… Yeah, there's some 'fat'.

I have stories. SOOOOO many stories.
 
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A possible war in the Middle East with associated increases in fuel prices, and softening of domestic non-premium travel - the same thing that's hurting Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue right now. All this has happened before and all this will happen again.

The airlines were doing pretty great right up to 9/11. At USAir we were still hiring 100 pilots a month. The fear of terrorism followed by the Iraq war slammed on the brakes and resulted in a breathtaking number of furloughs that lasted throughout the lost decade.

Regionals exploded for the first several years as mainline management took advantage of force majeur language to park older airplanes - DC9, F100, MD80, 737-200... and replace those good mainline jobs with thousands of poverty wage commuter jobs.... and then the commuter guys experienced their OWN lost decade as there was no hiring and no place to go at the majors who were not only inundated by furloughs, but who had just given away a sizable fraction of their flying to those very same regionals. And just when it looked like things might be getting better, they raised the retirement age to 65 resulting in even more stagnation.

Now to be fair, those mainline contracts would have been torn apart in bankruptcy whether they had force majeur language or not. But it was that language that USAir president Rakesh Gangwal said "opened certain doors to us that were unavailable before" allowing them to abrogate sections of the contract including, minimum fleet count, minimum Captain positions, minimum block hours, and the no furlough clause.

This all seems so eerily similar to 9/11 you can hopefully understand why I'm nervous that we are going down that road again, My career has been littered with these multi year speed bumps and I am admittedly Chicken Little about the events that could potentially be leading us towards another one.

So what do you think? Are we teetering on the precipice of another lost decade?


Well, who knows, maybe Southwest will ask you to go direct entry CA on a CRJ. Good thing is, you’re used to going from mainline to regional. :aghast:













j/k
 
I can't tell you how a job that was literally four people, a mid-tier bar four-top, some drinks, some notes on a bar napkin and executing a plan the next morning at 0800 became a team of 30 people, MS Teams meetings to figure out when the actual meeting was going to be, positive space tickets to HQ, catering, "one pagers"/executive summaries, running things past 'legal' and costing and, at the end of the day, the plan went stale and never gets executed until your competitor executes it and "we need to scramble and regroup, so lets have a Teams meeting to figure out what the strategy is"… Yeah, there's some 'fat'.
I would have sworn the “old way” had you explaining yourself in like, two pages or less or something to that effect.
 
I would have sworn the “old way” had you explaining yourself in like, two pages or less or something to that effect.

Nah, it's always been a "one pager".

Still which is stupid and a waste of time because I don't care what you did in your business classes at Georgia Tech. What is the problem, how do we fix it. Done. Mocha? :)
 
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