"But I've got a flow...?"

[chrisreedrules]

...if it works, which history has shown, it usually doesn't.

All indications are that it is currently working (obviously) and that it will continue to work. Times are a little bit different now compared to when the flows were first instituted and especially compared to the "lost decade" this industry experienced. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm not personally counting on a flow, but I do think it is worth taking into consideration for the above mentioned reasons. I've only talked to a handful of mostly senior pilots who are counting on it. Some junior pilots for one reason or another. A lot of the logic I hear from new hires has to do with keeping their options open in such a way that the flows to AA allows them to. Get hired at a WO, still able to apply everywhere else and have as good a shot as anyone else at getting hired (we routinely lose more pilots to DA and UA in a month than we do to our flow to AA here at PSA). Off the street hires at the legacies are still heavily favored to those with military experience. That will obviously change some in the coming years, but I think the old adage will still hold true.

Endeavor, though lacking a true "flow" and CommutAir still offer one of the best paths to their respective legacy partners. If I worked for a TSH regional or maybe a couple of the other non-WOs I would take serious note of the current industry trends. AA themselves have said they want to reduce the number of regionals currently providing lift for them over the next few years and the indication is that DA and UA have similar plans. I'll bet a dollar that one of their plans to keep the WOs staffed will be at the expense of other non-WO regionals.

But AA has themselves between a rock and a hard place with the flows. If they slow the flows considerably or stop them altogether, they will see a mass exodus of pilots from their regionals and their flying will suffer. If they continue to take the number of pilots they are currently flowing (and in fact increasing the number in the case of PSA and Piedmont) they will reach a tipping point to where they are hurting their flying also (I personally predict summer/fall 2018 is when this will start to show). They are getting rid of their group 1 aircraft and paying their WOs unheard of sums of money to staff the regional lift. Either they have a madman at the helm or they have another plan. Time will tell what that plan entails. All I know is that it is going to be an interesting few years ahead of us.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

...if it works, which history has shown, it usually doesn't.

Except it has recently. Compass guys hired prior to mid (?) 2010 scored the lottery. Straight into 2014 DOH at Delta at the extreme front of the hiring spree. Even Mesaba flows worked out for the cutoff who made it (108ish?). Eagle guys finally flowing up since (?) 2013. For them it took 15-18 years because of 9/11, great recession, and the lost decade in general.

 

[SquatThrust]

They are getting rid of their group 1 aircraft and paying their WOs unheard of sums of money to staff the regional lift. .

The question becomes, and only the AA money managers know the dollars and cents of it, is at what point will the rising salaries/costs of running RJs at a regional reach the point where it might as well be operated by mainline crews? Ultimately that is what I'd like to see happen anyways. Bring it all into mainline.

 

[zippy]

AA maintains highly profitable domestic routes thanks in no small part to outsourcing to regionals.

Pure guess:

Expect to see the WOs expand at the expense of non-WOs, Envoys flow to slow way down % wise after the delivery of their (40th?) to bring it in line with the "lesser of X or 25%" flow that PDT and PSA enjoy. Eventuallt All three WOs will track to flow 10% of the pilot group a year, leaving an 7-10 year flow which will leave plenty of supply for AA WOs as they will be some of the few remaining regionals left.

50 seat RJs and scope limitations? No problem- expect scope relief in Return for contractual profit sharing and QOL improvements to bring AA mainline closer with DAL and UAL, but not THAT close.

 

[ctab5060X]

50 seat RJs and scope limitations? No problem- expect scope relief in Return for contractual profit sharing and QOL improvements to bring AA mainline closer with DAL and UAL, but not THAT close.

Oh, HELL NO!!

 

[JetDoc]

He wants to be one of the best pilots in the world.

I'm confused. I thought Delta pilots were the best in the world?

 

[bLizZuE]

I work at an AA WO... For anyone longer than 2-3 years away you should be looking at any other legacy or FedEx/UPS unless of course AA is where you want to be. I've seen the numbers though, and for someone in their early-mid 20's they would still make more lifetime earnings by waiting to flow to AA than by taking a job at a major/LCC. Even if it took them 7-8 years to flow. So it makes sense for some, for others not so much. What is great about the flow programs is that they generate continuous movement off the top of the seniority list.

Show us the math.

 

[JetDoc]

That's my plan. I'm at an AA wholly owned carrier with an estimated 4 years till flowing if none of the trains go off their rails. I'm not yet competitive for a legacy carrier or FX, but I meet their posted mins. So guess what? I'm applying anyways. No one wins the powerball if they don't play. Admittedly, AA is my first choice with or without the flow, because reasons, but I absolutely would not turn down a gig at DL, UA, FX, etc if it came prior to flowing. An offer today at a good company is worth more than having a 'for sure' chance at another one in the future.

I really just want to move back to Phoenix, and I keep my fingers crossed and my glass half full that PHX stays in the picture for AA.

It's posts like this that bring a smile to my face every time some arrogant recruiter says "we have X,000's of applications on file" What ever number that may be, divide it by at least three and that is the actual pool they have to pick from. I find it rather frightening that the "smartest and the brightest" in these HR departments either fail or refuse to realize this fact.

 

[Cloud Surfer]

The question becomes, and only the AA money managers know the dollars and cents of it, is at what point will the rising salaries/costs of running RJs at a regional reach the point where it might as well be operated by mainline crews? Ultimately that is what I'd like to see happen anyways. Bring it all into mainline.

Would the opposite not occur? Are the rising salaries inducing new student startups or are they just drawing in prior 121 and 135?

 

[bimmerphile]

Really don't think all regional flying will ever end up back at the mainline. Why would they increase their operating costs?
I'm thinking the shift towards wholly owneds is a result of the govt beginning to collect performance stats of regionals into their mainline partners. A wholly owned gives them more quality control of their product, without the cost of operating on mainline metal
I'm treating the CPP as a hypothetical. As @chrisreedrules mentioned, it's probably the most direct path to a mainline partner out of most regionals. At my seniority, I'd end up there as soon as I checked all the boxes, which is somewhere around 3 years, best case scenario.
But 3 years is a loooong time in this industry, I'm learning.

 

[SquatThrust]

Would the opposite not occur?

Do you mean as in regional carriers assume more flying in larger aircraft than currently being operated? I'm sure the majors, or at least AA, would love that. Hopefully the pilot groups at all carriers today can use that sharpened hindsight to know how to vote on such a measure.

Are the rising salaries inducing new student startups or are they just drawing in prior 121 and 135?

No idea about whether or not the number of new students is increasing as a result of increased pay at regionals, though it's probably safe to say that it would have that effect to some degree. It's going to take awhile of course for the effects of the pay increases to be felt at the new student pilot level, if at all, though. Otherwise, at my company, a not insignificant portion of new hires are people making lateral moves from other regionals.

 

[SquatThrust]

Why would they increase their operating costs?

Not by choice. Only if it was how the labor market ended up forcing them to respond.

 

[learhawkerbe400]

50 seat RJs and scope limitations? No problem- expect scope relief in Return for contractual profit sharing and QOL improvements to bring AA mainline closer with DAL and UAL, but not THAT close.

I don't know about relaxing scope. After the last 15 years I think the old guys finally learned that's a no go. During the AA/US JCBA negotiations that was the one thing the APA BOD stood strong against. Although I totally believe Parker/Kirby/Glass knew we'd draw a line in the sand on it and only asked for it as a negotiating tactic just so they could come back and say hey look we rescind our scope concessions! But that's another story.

 

[AAPalmTree]

I'm curious what your other reasons for wanting AA are if they aren't domicile related?

I'll give you a few:
-The Union BOD are down to earth guys interested in the well being of the junior guys.
-The IT department is cutting edge providing ease of access to all needed information.
-The captains you fly with are up on the latest fashions and will never wear stone washed jeans and white sneakers while going out with you to dinner.

 

[bLizZuE]

I'll give you a few:
-The Union BOD are down to earth guys interested in the well being of the junior guys.
-The IT department is cutting edge providing ease of access to all needed information.
-The captains you fly with are up on the latest fashions and will never wear stone washed jeans and white sneakers while going out with you to dinner.

Pretty sure they issue the jeans and sneakers on day one of captain school.

 

[Gonzo]

I'll give you a few:
-The Union BOD are down to earth guys interested in the well being of the junior guys.
-The IT department is cutting edge providing ease of access to all needed information.
-The captains you fly with are up on the latest fashions and will never wear stone washed jeans and white sneakers while going out with you to dinner.

Post of the year, right there

 

[Autothrust Blue]

I'm confused. I thought Delta pilots were the best in the world?

"Through these doors pass the greatest pilots in the world." - over the doors in GSW.

"Not applicable to Eagle pilots." - mentally added subscript.

 

[L-16B]

Unless you meant hot... as in hot flashes!!

Ive been flying with a ton of young DFW and ORD flight attendants. Its shocking actually.

 

[L-16B]

@L-16B wanted it because he feels superior now.

Ive always been superior, but it wont be recognized until I walk under the sign at the flight academy. And until I learn how to use the GPS in the 182 ive been flying.

 

[derg]

It's posts like this that bring a smile to my face every time some arrogant recruiter says "we have X,000's of applications on file" What ever number that may be, divide it by at least three and that is the actual pool they have to pick from. I find it rather frightening that the "smartest and the brightest" in these HR departments either fail or refuse to realize this fact.

Gutsy move, Mav.

However, the box of broken toys that hold the impression that "Well, they HAVE to hire me one day, they won't have a choice" they will be in for a very unpleasant suprise.