Your opinions regarding the industry recovery

Hanhon

Well-Known Member
Just wanted to see everybody’s thoughts about when you think we will see dispatch hiring across all majors just like the way it was pre-covid. I understand we are seeing huge progress now but also still no way near this so called “new normal.” My realistic expectation says 3 years from now as everyone will still have to slowly call their furloughed employees before having the capabilities for new hires. However I hope I’m wrong and the recovery is going a lot faster than I’m expecting. What do y’all think?


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Dart_8992

Well-Known Member

That post is pretty much the same question if you're interested.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
The longer our society lives in fear; the longer a high percentage of people remain out of work, the more likely this reality becomes normalized. In that event, it may be decades before the majors hire again. It also becomes more likely that the desirability of such jobs will lessen.

Right now, I don't see any sense of urgency on the part of our incoming leaders, and a good portion of the population, to return to what was considered normal.
 

A-9er

Well-Known Member
FWIW, I think folks have to make sure they can survive first before traveling. Unemployment claims remain high. Historically speaking, anything over 400,000 initial unemployment claims per week was considered a recessionary environment; i.e. 400K or more initial unemployment claims per week is a reliable recessionary indicator. Folks, we're routinely DOUBLING those numbers! While things have improved, they haven't improved enough. We could be facing a record number of evictions too. For millions of our fellow Americans, just surviving is a battle. Until that changes, people won't travel, which means the airlines won't recover.

While I'm no economist, I've always been a bit wonky that way; I was always interested in that, especially after I had economics in college. Then I knew what the CPI, GDP, etc. meant! I used to read the WSJ, Business Week, and The Economist all the time; I paid attention to business, the economy, and so on. SO! I'd say pay attention to the number of initial (i.e. first time) weekly unemployment claims. Once the number starts trending down towards 400K, things will start looking up. Once they go below 400K a week and stay there, then things will return to normal; we'll have a normal, non-recessionary, pre-COVID economy again. I wish I knew when that would happen though. If I could figure that out, I'd be a rich man! Anyway, those are my thoughts...
 

Delta Echo

Well-Known Member
It will be a minimum of 2 years before the Big 4 start hiring; F9 and G4 may have sporadic postings; regionals will continue to hire at some level. Cargo is where the openings will be in the mean time.

Sadly, many of the furloughs just coming back stand to be out again when this very brief PPP stimulus expires March 31st unless there is more funding to continue PPP.

Even with the mass public believing a shot will protect them, (it won't) there is not any good gauge of when travel by air may seriously pick up for business and to a less extent leisure. Some of this will have to do with local rules governing attendance numbers at conventions, trade shows, allowing "non-essential" travel for business and how the work from home trend plays out.

As it stands we are currently holding for dense fog and no solid update time.
 

Wonderlic

Well-Known Member
With no end in sight to the self-destructive COVID response and the very real chance of a civil war or “peaceful divorce” (if were that lucky) I am not at all optimistic about the airline recovery.
 

dispatchguy

Well-Known Member
I'm at a cargo op flying dog crap out of HKG...

I agree on the pax side, 3-5 years minimum. Even if herd immunity is achieved, it will be some time where the massive loads will return, and in that think the pax industry will be forever changed and we'll never see loads like we have before. Those days where the B or C concourse at ORD is Jammed with people going everywhere I think are over. I would not enter a dispatch school right now to save my life... Webex and Zoom are here to stay, which is a bummer for I used to enjoy going to meetings in DC, Old Ebbitt Grill, Fogo de Chao, Joe Theisman's in Arlington and Churchkeys are my faves...

Socially this country is F-ed. What little progress we had made in 50 years of race relations was undone in four.

I have less than zero desire to get on a pax airliner right now. I haven't flown since March, and I don't care how sterile you make the airplane, its the other pax I don't trust - especially here in the US. I have just a smidge more desire to get on one of our own airplanes, or another box hauler. I did my annual ride in the box, and unless things change internationally I'll probably do this year's ride in the box as well. I am scheduled to get the jab in Feb as I am high risk. Some countries (Australia is one, and I love Oz) are already saying that when they do open their borders, unless you are vaccinated, you will be refused entry.
 
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