Your opinions regarding the industry recovery

Hanhon

Well-Known Member
Just wanted to see everybody’s thoughts about when you think we will see dispatch hiring across all majors just like the way it was pre-covid. I understand we are seeing huge progress now but also still no way near this so called “new normal.” My realistic expectation says 3 years from now as everyone will still have to slowly call their furloughed employees before having the capabilities for new hires. However I hope I’m wrong and the recovery is going a lot faster than I’m expecting. What do y’all think?


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Dart_8992

Well-Known Member

That post is pretty much the same question if you're interested.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
The longer our society lives in fear; the longer a high percentage of people remain out of work, the more likely this reality becomes normalized. In that event, it may be decades before the majors hire again. It also becomes more likely that the desirability of such jobs will lessen.

Right now, I don't see any sense of urgency on the part of our incoming leaders, and a good portion of the population, to return to what was considered normal.
 

A-9er

Well-Known Member
FWIW, I think folks have to make sure they can survive first before traveling. Unemployment claims remain high. Historically speaking, anything over 400,000 initial unemployment claims per week was considered a recessionary environment; i.e. 400K or more initial unemployment claims per week is a reliable recessionary indicator. Folks, we're routinely DOUBLING those numbers! While things have improved, they haven't improved enough. We could be facing a record number of evictions too. For millions of our fellow Americans, just surviving is a battle. Until that changes, people won't travel, which means the airlines won't recover.

While I'm no economist, I've always been a bit wonky that way; I was always interested in that, especially after I had economics in college. Then I knew what the CPI, GDP, etc. meant! I used to read the WSJ, Business Week, and The Economist all the time; I paid attention to business, the economy, and so on. SO! I'd say pay attention to the number of initial (i.e. first time) weekly unemployment claims. Once the number starts trending down towards 400K, things will start looking up. Once they go below 400K a week and stay there, then things will return to normal; we'll have a normal, non-recessionary, pre-COVID economy again. I wish I knew when that would happen though. If I could figure that out, I'd be a rich man! Anyway, those are my thoughts...
 

Delta Echo

Well-Known Member
It will be a minimum of 2 years before the Big 4 start hiring; F9 and G4 may have sporadic postings; regionals will continue to hire at some level. Cargo is where the openings will be in the mean time.

Sadly, many of the furloughs just coming back stand to be out again when this very brief PPP stimulus expires March 31st unless there is more funding to continue PPP.

Even with the mass public believing a shot will protect them, (it won't) there is not any good gauge of when travel by air may seriously pick up for business and to a less extent leisure. Some of this will have to do with local rules governing attendance numbers at conventions, trade shows, allowing "non-essential" travel for business and how the work from home trend plays out.

As it stands we are currently holding for dense fog and no solid update time.
 

Wonderlic

Well-Known Member
With no end in sight to the self-destructive COVID response and the very real chance of a civil war or “peaceful divorce” (if were that lucky) I am not at all optimistic about the airline recovery.
 

dispatchguy

Well-Known Member
I'm at a cargo op flying dog crap out of HKG...

I agree on the pax side, 3-5 years minimum. Even if herd immunity is achieved, it will be some time where the massive loads will return, and in that think the pax industry will be forever changed and we'll never see loads like we have before. Those days where the B or C concourse at ORD is Jammed with people going everywhere I think are over. I would not enter a dispatch school right now to save my life... Webex and Zoom are here to stay, which is a bummer for I used to enjoy going to meetings in DC, Old Ebbitt Grill, Fogo de Chao, Joe Theisman's in Arlington and Churchkeys are my faves...

Socially this country is F-ed. What little progress we had made in 50 years of race relations was undone in four.

I have less than zero desire to get on a pax airliner right now. I haven't flown since March, and I don't care how sterile you make the airplane, its the other pax I don't trust - especially here in the US. I have just a smidge more desire to get on one of our own airplanes, or another box hauler. I did my annual ride in the box, and unless things change internationally I'll probably do this year's ride in the box as well. I am scheduled to get the jab in Feb as I am high risk. Some countries (Australia is one, and I love Oz) are already saying that when they do open their borders, unless you are vaccinated, you will be refused entry.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
The longer our society lives in fear; the longer a high percentage of people remain out of work, the more likely this reality becomes normalized. In that event, it may be decades before the majors hire again. It also becomes more likely that the desirability of such jobs will lessen.

Right now, I don't see any sense of urgency on the part of our incoming leaders, and a good portion of the population, to return to what was considered normal.
Adding to this: the last day my local gym was open was November 18. It's been closed by the Governor's second round of lockdowns for over two months. Where I used to be aggravated about not being able to exercise in my preferred manner, I now find I'm hardly giving it a thought.

This is becoming normalized.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
The Biden Administration's actions towards the energy sector have made it abundantly clear that they do not care about American energy independence, or the industries that rely on it (i.e. all of them). On top of all the other damage they have caused, they are now working to drive up energy costs. Airlines can't get people to fly now. What do you think will happen when fuel surcharges start getting added to ticket prices?
 

A1TAPE

Well-Known Member
The Biden Administration's actions towards the energy sector have made it abundantly clear that they do not care about American energy independence, or the industries that rely on it (i.e. all of them). On top of all the other damage they have caused, they are now working to drive up energy costs. Airlines can't get people to fly now. What do you think will happen when fuel surcharges start getting added to ticket prices?
I thought they already were. Unless its just the 9/11 and PFC fees.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
The point is that fuel prices are going to go up. This is not going to promote the recovery of the airline industry. The recovery just got longer.
 
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QXDX

Well-Known Member
I genuinely think that the people in charge now DO NOT WANT TO RETURN TO NORMAL. They want this to become the new normal.

I can't prove it. The only evidence I have is anecdotal. But nothing I have seen in the last several months gives me any indication that they desire a return to what we consider normal.
 
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jynxyjoe

The Kickin' Chicken!
The point is that fuel prices are going to go up. This is not going to promote the recovery of the airline industry. The recovery just got longer.
Also, you need to understand that the people in charge now DO NOT WANT TO RETURN TO NORMAL. They want this to become the new normal.

I can't prove it. The only evidence I have is anecdotal. But nothing I have seen in the last several months gives me any indication that they desire a return to what we consider normal.
Oil prices are going to go up if there is a recovery, they can't stay where they are at. Either industry will stop pulling it out of the ground, to drive up prices, or there will be a demand increase that will drive up prices. Fuel the product of refinement, will do a number of things. Prices will go up and down as refineries do more work to meet demand. I think what you're trying to get at, is that taxes on fuel might go up. Yeah. As revenue is way down due to work at home and unemployment, democrats traditionally elevate the taxes as a way to make up revenue. Taxes would have gone up anyway if "infrastructure week" had ever worked. If Biden gets infrastructure week into a bill, we have to pay for it somehow.

The people in charge now, and even members on this board, were WAY too wrapped up in finding someone to blame for Covid. Trump. Trump and those around him wanted to find someone to blame, China. No one has been asking HOW do we return to some level of normal. Now that Trump is gone, leaders are looking at each other frustrated no one has a plan on how to get things restarted. They aren't alone in the us. Everyone is figuring this out. Good news, new cases are cratering. Business and small government will lead the charge back to normalcy.
 

QXDX

Well-Known Member
Oil prices are going to go up if there is a recovery, they can't stay where they are at. Either industry will stop pulling it out of the ground, to drive up prices, or there will be a demand increase that will drive up prices. Fuel the product of refinement, will do a number of things. Prices will go up and down as refineries do more work to meet demand. I think what you're trying to get at, is that taxes on fuel might go up. Yeah. As revenue is way down due to work at home and unemployment, democrats traditionally elevate the taxes as a way to make up revenue. Taxes would have gone up anyway if "infrastructure week" had ever worked. If Biden gets infrastructure week into a bill, we have to pay for it somehow.

The people in charge now, and even members on this board, were WAY too wrapped up in finding someone to blame for Covid. Trump. Trump and those around him wanted to find someone to blame, China. No one has been asking HOW do we return to some level of normal. Now that Trump is gone, leaders are looking at each other frustrated no one has a plan on how to get things restarted. They aren't alone in the us. Everyone is figuring this out. Good news, new cases are cratering. Business and small government will lead the charge back to normalcy.
I think the "how" is easy. Remove all lockdowns, mandates, and restrictions. Now, immediately, without condition. People will do what they always do when free to pursue their own motivations. They'll figure what works best for them. And we will all be better off for it.

The root cause of all this is the CCP government. They kept quiet about this virus for months before they informed anybody. If they had just told the world what was going on, this could have been contained. Their actions are nothing less than criminal and, as far as I'm concerned, pure evil. How do you not tell your neighbors when something like this happens?

Within this country the blame lies squarely with the Democrat party and their willing accomplices in the media. It was more important to them get rid of President Trump than to set aside political and ideological differences in the face of a worldwide pandemic.
 

flynryan692

Well-Known Member
I think the "how" is easy. Remove all lockdowns, mandates, and restrictions. Now, immediately, without condition. People will do what they always do when free to pursue their own motivations. They'll figure what works best for them. And we will all be better off for it.

The root cause of all this is the CCP government. They kept quiet about this virus for months before they informed anybody. If they had just told the world what was going on, this could have been contained. Their actions are nothing less than criminal and, as far as I'm concerned, pure evil. How do you not tell your neighbors when something like this happens?

Within this country the blame lies squarely with the Democrat party and their willing accomplices in the media. It was more important to them get rid of President Trump than to set aside political and ideological differences in the face of a worldwide pandemic.
lol oh boy :rolleyes:

So let the people do what they want, they'll be better off (if a spiking death rate is better off, ok). Then you acknowledge the danger and problem, and then you politicize it as if both parties haven't jerked the American people around for political gain with this. Great work scout.
 

jynxyjoe

The Kickin' Chicken!
I think the "how" is easy. Remove all lockdowns, mandates, and restrictions. Now, immediately, without condition. People will do what they always do when free to pursue their own motivations. They'll figure what works best for them. And we will all be better off for it.

The root cause of all this is the CCP government. They kept quiet about this virus for months before they informed anybody. If they had just told the world what was going on, this could have been contained. Their actions are nothing less than criminal and, as far as I'm concerned, pure evil. How do you not tell your neighbors when something like this happens?

Within this country the blame lies squarely with the Democrat party and their willing accomplices in the media. It was more important to them get rid of President Trump than to set aside political and ideological differences in the face of a worldwide pandemic.
Nope. We're not gonna do that. That's why we haven't.
 
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