Your opinions regarding the industry recovery

[jynxyjoe]

If you want the industry to recover, that's ultimately what it's going to take; a complete lifting of all restrictions, and allowing people to conduct their lives as they see fit.

Sure. Later.

Theres a vaccine, we take it, or not, and when weve got something approaching herd immunity we go back. The chopper to the carrier just arrived, we're gonna wait our turn to get on the chopper. If you wanna jump off the embassy and kill all of Charlie with a knife thats cool man. I'm just gonna hang tight for the chopper to load me up.

 

[Delta Echo]

I think the "how" is easy. Remove all lockdowns, mandates, and restrictions. Now, immediately, without condition. People will do what they always do when free to pursue their own motivations. They'll figure what works best for them. And we will all be better off for it.

The root cause of all this is the CCP government. They kept quiet about this virus for months before they informed anybody. If they had just told the world what was going on, this could have been contained. Their actions are nothing less than criminal and, as far as I'm concerned, pure evil. How do you not tell your neighbors when something like this happens?

Within this country the blame lies squarely with the Democrat party and their willing accomplices in the media. It was more important to them get rid of President Trump than to set aside political and ideological differences in the face of a worldwide pandemic.

I agree ending all the illegal and useless lockdowns. I wouldn't be so quick to solely blame China for the virus; it was the release and spread to human point, but i think other nations were involved in the creation of SARS-COV-2. China being the "launch" point easily made them a quasi-fall guy. Any rate, pointing fingers at this point is the intended desire and not focusing on the real issue affecting us and that is the criminal and unconstitutional shut down of the economy and terrorizing of citizen's lives. That was the first goal, the second is trying to bait the sheep into thinking a miracle elixir vaccine will somehow "erase" the problem. It won't and it won't keep SARS-COV-2 from being diagnosed in people, it is all a control and profit experiment for the politicians puppet masters exploiting fear and holding freedoms hostage.

 

[who'swho]

Well this turned into another political dumpster fire. I thought that was reserved for FB.

 

[FlyingSioux1]

Well this turned into another political dumpster fire. I thought that was reserved for FB.

For real...

 

[QXDX]

lol oh boy

So let the people do what they want, they'll be better off (if a spiking death rate is better off, ok). Then you acknowledge the danger and problem, and then you politicize it as if both parties haven't jerked the American people around for political gain with this. Great work scout.

You're speaking collectively. I'm talking about individuals. Individuals always act in what they believe to be their own best interest. It's human nature.

Regardless of whether we should or shouldn't, our industry will not start recovering until all the restrictions, including face masks, are gone. It's as simple as that.

If we wait too long, the industry as we knew it will not return. This WILL be the new normal. If that's acceptable to you, then keep advocating for then restrictions to continue.

 

[SteveC]

You're speaking collectively. I'm talking about individuals. Individuals always act in what they believe to be their own best interest. It's human nature.

Regardless of whether we should or shouldn't, our industry will not start recovering until all the restrictions, including face masks, are gone. It's as simple as that.

If we wait too long, the industry as we knew it will not return. This WILL be the new normal. If that's acceptable to you, then keep advocating for then restrictions to continue.

Multiple nonsense.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Multiple nonsense.

He's seeing the masks as the villain here. Probably some larger perspective of the masks being a political flag to wave, when we're trying to bring down the R value. In conservative circles I still see a useless punching at the masks any time a study comes out to show they don't block Covid virus from coming through the cloth, and that somehow translates to "they do nothing". Or taking the 96% number from the CDC from the 400,000 to say, "see only 24,000 deaths from this virus, just like a flu".

Are the masks perfect? No, do they help? Yes. Are people being indoctrinated into communism or whatever this guy's point was through wearing a mask? No. No and if it were that easy there'd still be a USSR.

 

[3Green.]

If these covid anal swabs come stateside, it's going to make this recovery a real pain in the butt. Believe that!

(Brand new dad, sorry about the jokes)

 

[jynxyjoe]

If these covid anal swabs come stateside, it's going to make this recovery a real pain in the butt. Believe that!

First I was like

(Brand new dad, sorry about the jokes)

And then I was like

congratz you sob.

 

[Space Monkey]

Just wanted to see everybody’s thoughts about when you think we will see dispatch hiring across all majors just like the way it was pre-covid. I understand we are seeing huge progress now but also still no way near this so called “new normal.” My realistic expectation says 3 years from now as everyone will still have to slowly call their furloughed employees before having the capabilities for new hires. However I hope I’m wrong and the recovery is going a lot faster than I’m expecting. What do y’all think?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Recovery?

I continue to pretend to be an honorable, decent, bread-winning, tax-paying American... while I continue to inject carbon into the upper atmosphere at a higher absolute and per-capita rate than almost anyone else I know.

 

[Flagship_dxer]

New coronaviruses similar to this one develop every 5-10 years. Also, each year the flu varies in severity. If the COVID-19 measures are precedent setting, every few years there might be lockdowns and travel restrictions when the next coronavirus or bird flu develops. Not good for those wanting a stable career. On the other hand, the government seemingly has an endless supply of money to print and airlines and their unions have a powerful lobby so quarterly bailouts might be a part of airline life long term as well.

QXDX is correct. Even people who fully support masking know how difficult it is to wear masks for long durations. Add in that families going on trips make up a large portion of our pre-covid business. It isn't easy to get 3-8 year old to wear masks. Especially for long haul flights. That will reduce demand. Many will adapt and will travel again however it will take getting rid of all restrictions to get things back to where they were before the virus. With zoom and facetime, we might never again see 2019 passenger loads. United looking to reduce costs as much as they are is indicative of a belief that business travel won't ever be completely back to where it was. Leisure recovery will depend on how easy it will be for families to travel and if young children adapt quickly to wearing masks for long durations. There are airlines now recommending that families with young kids not to fly until after the pandemic. A recovery won't happen until that changes.

 

[fsxflyhigh]

For someone who lost their job, the restrictions are too much. For someone who lost a loved one, it wasn't enough. To be fair what do I know? I'm not an epidemiologist, I'm just a monkey that clicks buttons to make boxes turn green.

 

[QXDX]

He's seeing the masks as the villain here. Probably some larger perspective of the masks being a political flag to wave, when we're trying to bring down the R value. In conservative circles I still see a useless punching at the masks any time a study comes out to show they don't block Covid virus from coming through the cloth, and that somehow translates to "they do nothing". Or taking the 96% number from the CDC from the 400,000 to say, "see only 24,000 deaths from this virus, just like a flu".

Are the masks perfect? No, do they help? Yes. Are people being indoctrinated into communism or whatever this guy's point was through wearing a mask? No. No and if it were that easy there'd still be a USSR.

You keep bringing up the subject of masks. If you look back through this thread you'll see that I haven't mentioned them, except as part of a larger point about lifting restrictions being necessary for recovery.

Masks are not the villain. They are a symbol of fear. They are indicative of a population that is afraid to live a normal life. As long as that fear exists, they're not going to be getting on airplanes.

When the fear subsides the masks while come off, and we will start to live some kind of normal life. That's when people may start flying again. That's when we may see some kind of recovery. But fear will not subside as long as our leaders keep up with doom and gloom and "dark winter" rhetoric.

 

[TF39]

 

[Green12324]

My personal opinion is that this summer is going to be another bust for the airlines. Even with the vaccine distribution being given high priority it is still going to move slowly, and travel restrictions will be lifted even slower. The new administration seems as though they will be unapologetic about attempting to control the virus even if it's at the expense of the airline industry.

My expectation right now is that most folks will probably be recalled around this time next year in anticipation of the 2022 spring break/summer travel season. Of course that will vary somewhat airline by airline, just as the furloughs themselves have varied. Management will definitely be looking for ways to dig out of the massive debt 2019 incurred, and keeping labor costs low will be one of the top ways to do it. Also each airline has a unique business model, and since the recovery hasn't really even started yet it's still unknown to what extent each type of revenue (Intl, domestic, business, leisure) will come back in the short term. Customer habits may change on the other side of this whether due to economic necessity (some people can't afford to travel anymore) or preference (some people prefer meeting virtually.)

I am as eager as anyone to get my job back, but unfortunately I don't think we've turned the corner on this thing yet. To address OP's question, I wouldn't expect a new hire class at any majors until maybe early 2023 at best. I think after 9/11 my airline didn't hire anyone for about 5 years.

 

[Avolar]

After 9/11 the first class that United had for dispatch assistants (FICs) was in 2005. So to think early 2023 is a good assessment. Just my thoughts on it also.

 

[A1TAPE]

After 9/11 the first class that United had for dispatch assistants (FICs) was in 2005. So to think early 2023 is a good assessment. Just my thoughts on it also.

What did dispatch assistants do? File flight plans and such? Or was it more of a term for dispatchers in training?

 

[Green12324]

What did dispatch assistants do? File flight plans and such? Or was it more of a term for dispatchers in training?

Here is an old job posting from its most recent interation - it was called dispatch support coordinator (DSC). ShieldSquare Captcha

With the covid re-org they eliminated the DSC role and created a new job title called "field operations supervisor." I think they handle the old DSC/assistant dispatch responsibilities as well as new things. Going forward only time will tell if it serves as a flow through to dispatch, but that would be the job title to look out for at the moment if anyone is interested.

 

[Avolar]

The previous jobs that they did was FLIFO, Route Building, FAA notams, Jeppesen Notams.
So for FLIFO you stared at the monitor and made sure the OOOI times were correct and answered phones. For the Route desk, you made sure routes like NATs and PACOTS actually downloaded correctly into the system, and yes you built a route that was not in the system if a dispatcher wanted it. For the FAA and Jepps desk you had to make sure the notams went into the system correctly.
Very mundane and waste of people. Wanted to quit after 2 days. Maybe it has changed somewhat.

 

[A1TAPE]

Wouldnt the onus be on the airport managers and such to make sure the notams go into the FAA system properly or was it an internal system that downloaded the NOTAMS from the FAA? There are other sources for checking the notams too. Best one is FAA NOTAM search. Great thing about it is they put our tax dollars to great use by including robust features such as the ability to filter notams by type and even date/time. It can take an airport with 100 notams and filter it down to 10 truely important ones.