Who moved your cheese?

[Hacker15e]

Seriously. The worst day I've had in my whole professional aviation experience was still better than many days at my desk job.

My worst day in professional aviation was the 35 seconds or so that I was defending against two guided SAMs launched at me over Iraq in 2003.

(artist's rendering of the event for a book cover)

Postively the most frightening experience of my life. I would have given just about anything to be anywhere else on the planet for that minute or two surrounding that -- including sitting at a desk in a cubicle farm somewhere.

I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic, life-threatening emergency that I'll encounter in 121 flying that will be more stressful than that. Everything else is gonna be aaaaaaaaaalriiiiight, and nothing to get terribly irritated about.

Sooooooo, it is definitely all about perspective.

 

[Hacker15e]

You mention guys in the '80s. What percentage of EAL, BNF, etc. pilots were former military? A hell of a lot. It's easier to deal with your cheese being moved when you've got a military pension to cushion the blow..

My bet is the vast majority of those guys did not have a military pension. In fact, up until the late 90s, the majority of military guys were not staying in until 20 years and being vested in a pension, because financially that was the long-term losing money plan.

In 1999, in my first fighter squadron, I saw a spreadsheet that had been made comparing lifetime earnings of guys who left the military after their 6 or 8 year training commitment and went to fly for the airlines, compared to guys who stayed in the military longer before jumping to the airlines. There was a different tab for each extra year that guys stayed in the military, up to the 20-year retirement point.

Every year -- every year -- up until year 17 of military service returned a bigger lifetime income than the guys who stayed in until 20 and collected a retirement check. The guy who got out at 17 years -- just three years shy of getting that lifetime retirement pension -- made more lifetime earnings than the guy who stayed in until 20 and did get the lifetime pension. The 17 year guy out-earned the 20 year guy by $1 million over his post-military career, as the three-year difference in seniority made that significant of a difference both in terms of upgrading to Captain pay earlier and three extra years at the top of the pay scale.

Today, given the unpredictability of the airline industry, it is a very different calculus. The pay-cuts, bankruptcies, furloughs, mergers, etc, have all made it much more vogue to stay in the military to 20 and collect the "sure thing" pension check as a buffer against that airline unpredictability...but it was NOT thought of that way in the 80s.

 

[ppragman]

My worst day in professional aviation was the 35 seconds or so that I was defending against two guided SAMs launched at me over Iraq in 2003.

(artist's rendering of the event for a book cover)

Postively the most frightening experience of my life. I would have given just about anything to be anywhere else on the planet for that minute or two surrounding that -- including sitting at a desk in a cubicle farm somewhere.

I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic, life-threatening emergency that I'll encounter in 121 flying that will be more stressful than that. Everything else is gonna be aaaaaaaaaalriiiiight, and nothing to get terribly irritated about.

Sooooooo, it is definitely all about perspective.

There are plenty of things that could happen that could be just as - shall we say exciting. Fire in the cabin, structural failure, control surface problems, having to squawk 7500, a mugging on a layover...Don't sell yourself shot - while on average, no one will try to kill you in 121, but things could get out of hand pretty quick if you happen to be in the wrong place on the wrong plane at the wrong time. I imagine that this fellow feel similar about his experiences. I don't imagine a lot bothers him anymore.

 

[Hacker15e]

There are plenty of things that could happen that could be just as - shall we say exciting. Fire in the cabin, structural failure, control surface problems, having to squawk 7500, a mugging on a layover...Don't sell yourself shot - while on average, no one will try to kill you in 121, but things could get out of hand pretty quick if you happen to be in the wrong place on the wrong plane at the wrong time. I imagine that this fellow feel similar about his experiences. I don't imagine a lot bothers him anymore.

1. Did you read the part where I said, "I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic, life-threatening emergency"? Your list there fits into the category, and is exactly what I was referring to.

2. @Autothrust Blue was comparing his worst day in the airplane to being better than most office days. I was saying that my worst day was worse than just about anything I've ever done on any job anywhere, and saying "it depends on how bad your worst day in an airplane was."

 

[MikeD]

I would have given just about anything to be anywhere else on the planet for that minute or two surrounding that -- including sitting at a desk in a cubicle farm somewhere..

I have forwarded this request to AFPC, and a personnel assignments person will be contacting you first thing Monday with PCS orders..

 

[ppragman]

1. Did you read the part where I said, "I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic, life-threatening emergency"? Your list there fits into the category, and is exactly what I was referring to.

2. @Autothrust Blue was comparing his worst day in the airplane to being better than most office days. I was saying that my worst day was worse than just about anything I've ever done on any job anywhere, and saying "it depends on how bad your worst day in an airplane was."

Well, to be fair, there's also the van ride to the airport - that could be sketchy as hell.

 

[Hacker15e]

I have forwarded this request to AFPC, and a personnel assignments person will be contacting you first thing Monday.

I'm all ready a cubicle-farm resident as a Mission Planner, and spend my duty day with my face glued to various SIPR, NIPR, and AFMSS mission planning computer systems. I all ready do arts-and-crafts to create mission products for a living. I all ready have to watch the products I've planned and made get handed to another pilot and watch as he goes and flys my plan.

Hell, I'm deployed right now and sleeping in a freight container when I am not on duty planning and monitoring U-2 sorties from a windowless room in the desert.

AFPC...come at me, bro.

 

[Old Dominion Flyer]

My worst day in professional aviation was the 35 seconds or so that I was defending against two guided SAMs launched at me over Iraq in 2003.

Wasn't there a filmed interview about that event? Got the link? Perhaps I'm confusing it with another interview you did.

 

[Hacker15e]

Wasn't there a filmed interview about that event? Got the link? Perhaps I'm confusing it with another interview you did.

I have spoken about it in public before, but I don't know of a video online talking about it. There might be a youtube home video of one of those things -- I've spoken to CAP squadrons, and ROTC units, UPT classes, QB meetings, etc, and sometimes I show the video and talk about it.

The link I've posted here before from the EAA's "Timeless Voices" program is talking about a Close Air Support mission I flew in Afghanistan that I consider my best/finest/ most memorable moment in my aviation career, so the opposite end of the spectrum, hehe.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

My worst day in professional aviation was the 35 seconds or so that I was defending against two guided SAMs launched at me over Iraq in 2003.

(artist's rendering of the event for a book cover)

Postively the most frightening experience of my life. I would have given just about anything to be anywhere else on the planet for that minute or two surrounding that -- including sitting at a desk in a cubicle farm somewhere.

I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic, life-threatening emergency that I'll encounter in 121 flying that will be more stressful than that. Everything else is gonna be aaaaaaaaaalriiiiight, and nothing to get terribly irritated about.

Sooooooo, it is definitely all about perspective.

I've not been shot at before; I doubt that I will have that particular experience in professional aviation (although I would go up for a few laps in an F-15 given the chance...).

You sort of made my point, though: As long as the airplane is still controllable, I don't think my blood pressure is likely to come up too much. The bottom line for me, at the end of the day, is that we are on the ground, and nobody got hurt. That's my job in one sentence.

And I love it.

 

[jtrain609]

John,

That's no excuse for acting like a wiener in the cockpit. Ever.

Laugh it off and keep on plugging, or go do something else like YOU did.

I've whined about some of the things that happened to me in the past, but never let it impact the way I do my job. It's a matter of integrity. I know I don't have to tell you. And you shouldn't make excuses for them.

I said that twice in my post.

 

[Hacker15e]

if you don't get on with American, Delta or United in the next few years, you will NEVER upgrade at these companies.

Why do you say this? All the required retirement projections I've seen for all three show a steady loss of 400+ pilots per year for the next 15 years.

Since all three of those pilot groups are about 12,000 pilots in size, that means it'll be 15 years to move up to 50% just with retirement attrition.

By my bar napkin math, if you are under 50 years old when you get hired, you will have the opportunity to upgrade sometime during your career.

So are you referencing these 40+ year old guys at the regionals who need to get hired in the next couple years? Or is there some other factor you are basing your statement on?

 

[jtrain609]

Why do you say this? All the required retirement projections I've seen for all three show a steady loss of 400+ pilots per year for the next 15 years.

Since all three of those pilot groups are about 12,000 pilots in size, that means it'll be 15 years to move up to 50% just with retirement attrition.

By my bar napkin math, if you are under 50 years old when you get hired, you will have the opportunity to upgrade sometime during your career.

So are you referencing these 40+ year old guys at the regionals who need to get hired in the next couple years? Or is there some other factor you are basing your statement on?

United needs to replace, what? 8,000 guys?

They've already hired 2,000 of those.

The next 2,000 will happen in the next 2 years.

After that you're behind the curve.

 

[Hacker15e]

United needs to replace, what? 8,000 guys?

They've already hired 2,000 of those.

The next 2,000 will happen in the next 2 years.

After that you're behind the curve.

The world does not end in 15 more years -- that's just as far out as the retirement tables print out. There continue to be retirements after that.

 

[jtrain609]

The world does not end in 15 more years -- that's just as far out as the retirement tables print out. There continue to be retirements after that.

You're not wrong.

But all it takes is a legit Ebola outbreak, another terrorist attack, or a merger, any of which could result in further consolidation, and suddenly your career is over.

So sooner is much, much, much better.

There are guys that get within a few numbers of upgrading and stay there for a very long time.

 

[falconvalley]

Great post, Zap. My take is it's a combination of generational differences and perspective. A ton of financial risks were taken by the group you cite. Financial risk taking was something they were raised to consider. Their parents did it. And they did it in a booming economy. Some of them probably didn't have the backstory of failure to go off. But at the end of the day, career stagnation sucks, no matter where you are. And I think it's notable that furloughs and stagnation in today's Regional airline world is not the same as it was in previous decades. Failure at Eastern meant a chance to start over at another at risk airline. Failure at a Regional means you basically just wasted your time minus the total time. You're back to FO year 1, Regional, not FO year 1, American or Delta...
A lot of things happened at the same time to lead to this dismal aura.

I feel ya, though. I do. I was prepared for this. I didn't expect this much of "this", but I was prepared, nonetheless. Many of my friends were not.

 

[MikeD]

My worst day in professional aviation was the 35 seconds or so that I was defending against two guided SAMs launched at me over Iraq in 2003.
Sooooooo, it is definitely all about perspective.

I have spoken about it in public before, but I don't know of a video online talking about it. There might be a youtube home video of one of those things -- I've spoken to CAP squadrons, and ROTC units, UPT classes, QB meetings, etc, and sometimes I show the video and talk about it..

To think, F-105 guys going into RP6/Hanoi, this was a daily, if not multiple times in the same mission, occurance for them. For all 100 of their mission counters they had to fly, if they survived. As opposed to being a one-time event. We certainly do have it easier than they did, in so many ways.

 

[Seggy]

Your numbers are wrong

United needs to replace, what? 8,000 guys?

In the next 15 years, yes around this.

They've already hired 2,000 of those.

Since November 2012 they have hired around 400.

The next 2,000 will happen in the next 2 years.

True

After that you're behind the curve.

Nope, still ahead based on the need to hire 8000 and we are at 2400 hired.

 

[Hacker15e]

To think, F-105 guys going into RP6/Hanoi, this was a daily, if not multiple times in the same mission, occurance for them. For all 100 of their mission counters they had to fly, if they survived. As opposed to being a one-time event. We certainly do have it easier than they did, in so many ways.

Well, that was not the only time I've been shot at, just the one that was the closest to actually hitting the aircraft.

 

[jtrain609]

Your numbers are wrong



In the next 15 years, yes around this.




Since November 2012 they have hired around 400.



True



Nope, still ahead based on the need to hire 8000 and we are at 2400 hired.

But they're hiring the leaders and best right now. They want the best of the best so they can slide in to run the airline eh?

That won't be angry regional fos with nothing else on their resume.