Welcome to the Rest of your Career: Redux

[Seggy]

In order to qualify for food stamps on $25k per year, you have to have a family of 3 on a single income. Sorry, but it isn't the company's responsibility to subsidize someone's bad decisions. If you're starting out a career at an entry-level job, you shouldn't have two other mouths to feed. That's just bad decision-making. Which, come to think of it, is a good disqualifier for being an airline pilot.

Really? Wow....

You made it pretty clear that it can't be $90k, so I assume you don't mean $89.9k (which is still far too low, BTW). Whatever your number is below that, it's not anywhere close to what an airline captain should be making, so your point is indefensible, even if your number is above $60k.

Once again, the economics of the 50 seat aircraft don't justify those pilots to make six figures. Call me horrible names, but it is what it is. Do I wish they can make six figures? Yes. But wishing doesn't work here.

If we can put our negotiating leverage in aircraft that aren't being sent to the desert to be parked, that is thinking ahead. Something ALPA hasn't always done.

Oh, isn't that nice! Someone with a crystal ball. I remember all of the people who had those back in 2000 when I started my career. "You'll be scooped up by the majors as soon as you hit 1,000 TPIC." And then there was the wonderful CoEx flow-through that magically disappeared soon thereafter. Crystal balls are great....until you realize that people can't really see into the future.

That agreement was a great thing going, but was never contractually implemented from my understanding.

Ahh, ok, so it's fine for the guy flying the 50-seater to make peanuts, but the guy at the same company who flies an airplane with just 20 more seats gets to have a reasonable income. How magnanimous of you!

Once again with the drama.

I am not talking about the 50 seat guy making peanuts. I am saying we put negotiating capital on aircraft that are going to be around longer than the 50 seaters will be.

The reason your posts are bothering me so much is because that guy who I worked those organizing drives with would be absolutely dumbfounded if he had taken a look into the future and seen himself saying the things that are being said here.

I am looking at the situation with a pragmatic view. The 50 seat market is dying. We need to put negotiating capital on larger aircraft AND secure better paying, more secure jobs for those at the regionals. How do we do that? A secure, flow agreement. Not this portable longevity concept.

 

[dvtpilot]

Out of curiosity how do the economics of a 19, 37, 50, and 70 seat turboprop fit into this equation? I know there's a lot of Dash/Saab/Beech drivers out there and since all I keep hearing is how much better they are than their CRJ/ERJ counterparts for many routes.....what happens to them? Are they in a separate pay category because they don't cost as much to operate for the same amount of seats?

Or would it be more accurate to say the 50 seat JET market is dying.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

I've been one of the apologists that says "yeah, ALPA hasn't done a ton for us in terms of negotiating lately, but their safety programs are worth their weight in gold" but if they take the official opinion towards the regionals that @Seggy seems to have, I'll lead the decertification movement the very next day.

 

[surreal1221]

Oh how we eat our own so quickly...

How do we taste? Lemme know if I need to go simmer in some buttah.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Well, you would think so, but there have been exceptions. For example, a judge who ruled that pilots couldn't start writing up airplanes when they hadn't been before, even though the airplanes had legitimate maintenance issues.

Yeah, that's crap. Fortunately for me, I write stuff up all the time. *shrugs*

 

[derg]

Yup. Talk about sexual tension...

Watching @Seggy and @ATN_Pilot squabble online is both awkward and arousing, all at the same time.

 

[Seggy]

And with that, I'm done. Continuing this conversation is just going to get me really pissed off to the point that I'm going to say something that I'll probably regret later. I'll just end by saying that I'm damned glad that I'm getting out of this profession. Because when the former union leaders (and the current ones) start justifying such things, it's likely that the profession is doomed. Forget Emirates and Qatar. We'll destroy ourselves long before they have a chance to try.

Part of being an airline pilot is also being able to control your emotions, even when mad. There is no reason to be mad with what I am saying.

What ALPA has done the past 10-15 years handling the regionals has been abysmal. If we keep regurgitating the same old ideas, such as 'portable longevity' we are like a dog chasing it's tail around in a circle. We get no where. Those FFD conferences were nothing more than verbal masturbation (for you @Derg) sessions of guys liking to hear themselves speak. NOTHING was accomplished. Those are the cruel hard facts. ALPA needs to state the cruel hard facts when they fail. They have failed at the regionals!

I am not trying to pull the ladder up behind me, I am trying to extend it so guys can move up quicker than they have been.

Pay FO livable wages, even on first year. On the 50 seat jets, freeze the pay/benefits on what those who don't want to/can't flow where it is with small QOL raises. Focus on raising 66-76 seat jets rates, but make it enticing for those Captains to flow.

 

[derg]

See, @Seggy, I think the problem is that ALPA, in general, likes to show up to negotiations in order to make a universal deal that both the pilots can be sold on and the company will agree to.

Here's the problem.

We put up pilots to negotiate with skilled legal professionals whose only motive is getting you down to the point where they're not paying a penny more and skeeting the most productivity out of the contract as possible.

I can't remember at any point in my professional flying career where we were able to "look around the bend" and anticipate anything at all. They will tell union leadership "just enough" to satiate their appetite for information and, with the other hand, do exactly what they want, regardless of any contractual protections.

If we're going to have a large, national union, we need to change this immediately. The "let's all hold hands" coupled with Lee Moak's silly "Proactive Engagement" will destroy the union and further wreck solidarity.

One ALPA is wrecked and the last vestiges of solidarity are out the window, it will be absolute career armageddon unlike any of us have seen before. And sadly, it's just around the bend but too many of us are busy glad-handing, patting ourselves on the back and playing politics - as I got a good look at last month.

Make a snapshot of where we are as national union today. If nothing changes, we're absolutely doomed because once those castle walls come down, changes will come swift and devastating.

Talk to your people, bro. Shizzle is about to "get real" pretty quick as the natives are restless.

We've got 11,000+ angry people, over half have taken the angle that "anything has to be better than this" and there will be a domino effect. This is real.

 

[Firebird2XC]

The 50 seat market is dying, but primarily for one reason, and it's not fuel costs. It's scope erosion. Why fly a 50 seat jet at a regional because your crew costs less when you can fly a 70 seat jet or even a 90 seat jet with the same lower paid crew?

But the problem remains the same. Tomorrow the fuel price goes up, and hey the new jets don't really cut it anymore. Let's declare bankruptcy, rape scope and put the 120-140 seaters at the regionals. It's a cyclic process and the only way to stop it is to take away the incentives for the companies to do it. Longevity solutions or what have you treat the symptoms, but the economics are the cure. Every wave of scope erosion washes away the beach so many are trying so desperately to claw their way onto. This is the whole point I'm trying to make here.

We can say, "This is too big for us, Pippin. Let's go home to the Shire." But the truth is- "There won't BE a Shire."

And the economic pressure will just continue. It's not about getting more people out of the regionals. It's about realizing that 'regionals' comprise upwards of approximately FIFTY PERCENT of U.S. domestic revenue traffic- and climbing!

And yes- it's easy to stomp and go, "just get better flows!" Take it from the guy who's seem the stagnation that flows/flowbacks induce. They suck. And as for yelling about foreign carriers or a few culprits are our biggest total problem... That just smacks of self-interest.

We used to have a guy here that would bark and snarl and assume everyone around him was a traitor to the cause if we didn't all demonize the biggest competitors to *his* airline. He even tried to get a few people fired, as the rumors go.

Velocipede is gone. But his stink lingers. Let's all be careful not to roll around in our own BS so much that we start to stink like he did.

 

[Seggy]

Out of curiosity how do the economics of a 19, 37, 50, and 70 seat turboprop fit into this equation? I know there's a lot of Dash/Saab/Beech drivers out there and since all I keep hearing is how much better they are than their CRJ/ERJ counterparts for many routes.....what happens to them? Are they in a separate pay category because they don't cost as much to operate for the same amount of seats?

Or would it be more accurate to say the 50 seat JET market is dying.

Good question. The only way a 19 seat aircraft works if it is with EAS funding, but even that is a stretch. Take a look at how Cape Air is making it work with a 9 seat aircraft. I think there is more of a market for a 9 seat aircraft on the EAS type routes than a 19 seat.

There is a market (in my mind) with a 70 seat turboprop like the Q400 and the new ATR-72. Anything between 37-50 seat aircraft is a stretch. I know the guys at PDT and Air Wisconsin that are questioning their future. I know Air Wisconsin does't fly Turboprops but they had a com campaign 'Do I have a Future'. People are PDT are asking that same question I think.

 

[Seggy]

I've been one of the apologists that says "yeah, ALPA hasn't done a ton for us in terms of negotiating lately, but their safety programs are worth their weight in gold" but if they take the official opinion towards the regionals that @Seggy seems to have, I'll lead the decertification movement the very next day.

Well, the folks at Endeavor and PSA voted in contracts that lowered the bar, but really didn't allow the pilots to take away anything in return, except for a very flimsy flow.

So it is already happening.

It sucks.

I hate it.

It is called pattern bargaining.

ALPA has failed to allow this to happen.

These are the facts.

What is next?

My point, which is being lost, is as that bar was lowered, what are places like your own going to get in return for this new reset? I think a guaranteed flow, one that is solidified as we haven't seen before is a way to ease the sting a little bit.

Finally, your MEC Chair gave the nominating speech for the current ALPA President. Not sure if you knew that.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Well, the folks at Endeavor and PSA voted in contracts that lowered the bar, but really didn't allow the pilots to take away anything in return, except for a very flimsy flow.

So it is already happening.

It sucks.

I hate it.

It is called pattern bargaining.

ALPA has failed to allow this to happen.

These are the facts.

What is next?

My point, which is being lost, is as that bar was lowered, what are places like your own going to get in return for this new reset? I think a guaranteed flow, one that is solidified as we haven't seen before is a way to ease the sting a little bit.

'Guaranteed flows' are only worth anything if your Overlords are willing to keep to the deal when the time comes. 'Someday Deals' are usually only lucrative as long as you keep shoveling cash at your legal team.

The current round of contract TAs stem largely from the timing of one big thing- the new pilot hiring and rest laws coming online. The one real incentive of the regional network is to keep pilots cheap. And since the price of a shiny new FO just went way up, along with the cost of maintaining existing pilot groups, along with mandatory retirement waves ahead, this push to suppress regional pilot costs was almost entirely one of desperation.

A few folks bought in to the bill of goods. Some always will. But as economic realities come forward, the airlines know they have a serious case of FUPM coming. The smaller outfits are already wailing for relief. If we keep the pressure on, it won't come. Economics will shift, and maybe Joe Consumer will pay $5 more a ticket.

... and we'll all get a healthy, safe amount of sleep on our layovers and have a few more bucks in our accounts. We're at the low point in the arc, but the upswing is coming.

 

[Seggy]

See, @Seggy, I think the problem is that ALPA, in general, likes to show up to negotiations in order to make a universal deal that both the pilots can be sold on and the company will agree to.

Don't disagree with you there.

Here's the problem.

We put up pilots to negotiate with skilled legal professionals whose only motive is getting you down to the point where they're not paying a penny more and skeeting the most productivity out of the contract as possible.

This will probably bring @ATN_Pilot back into the conversation if I haven't already.

I can't remember at any point in my professional flying career where we were able to "look around the bend" and anticipate anything at all. They will tell union leadership "just enough" to satiate their appetite for information and, with the other hand, do exactly what they want, regardless of any contractual protections.

Yep, the fly now, grieve later sucks.

If we're going to have a large, national union, we need to change this immediately. The "let's all hold hands" coupled with Lee Moak's silly "Proactive Engagement" will destroy the union and further wreck solidarity.

I don't disagree with you.

The point I am making is with Endeavor and now PSA signing their contracts, the bar has been lowered. The pilots really have gotten nothing in return for this bar lowering. Portable Longevity is a dead topic right now. A lot of ships have sailed What isn't though is a way to get guys from regionals to the legacies. I am talking about a flow program, where you have the mainline partner (which your company is doing now at Compass and Endeavor) and they look to hire the person rather than the hour requirement. The mainline partners would be open to this, but they would need to control the pipeline hiring wise. A person at would need to pass the various tests, even to fly for that mainline's regional as someone would need to pass coming from the street.

One ALPA is wrecked and the last vestiges of solidarity are out the window, it will be absolute career armageddon unlike any of us have seen before.

Even though Todd does't agree with me, career armageddon is already happening at the regionals. A lot of guys in the FFD world are like WTF Endeavor. Ask the ASA/XJT guys about it. @surreal1221 was flipping out a year ago over what was happening at Endeavor and them agree to lower the bar. Unfortunately, Endeavor was in bankruptcy and couldn't do much, except liquidate. That sucks.

And sadly, it's just around the bend but too many of us are busy glad-handing, patting ourselves on the back and playing politics - as I got a good look at last month.

Unreal what happened. That was bullcrap.

Make a snapshot of where we are as national union today.

It is not in a good place.

If nothing changes, we're absolutely doomed because once those castle walls come down, changes will come swift and devastating.

Yep.

Talk to your people, bro. Shizzle is about to "get real" pretty quick as the natives are restless.

We've got 11,000+ angry people, over half have taken the angle that "anything has to be better than this" and there will be a domino effect. This is real.

No disagreement.

Once again, what ALPA has been doing in the past with the regionals, just simply has not worked.

 

[Seggy]

'Guaranteed flows' are only worth anything if your Overlords are willing to keep to the deal when the time comes. 'Someday Deals' are usually only lucrative as long as you keep shoveling cash at your legal team.

Then what would fix the problem Charlie?

The current round of contract TAs stem largely from the timing of one big thing- the new pilot hiring and rest laws coming online.

Actually, it is Delta wanting to reset the regional rates/work rules.

A few folks bought in to the bill of goods. Some always will. But as economic realities come forward, the airlines know they have a serious case of FUPM coming. The smaller outfits are already wailing for relief. If we keep the pressure on, it won't come. Economics will shift, and maybe Joe Consumer will pay $5 more a ticket.

... and we'll all get a healthy, safe amount of sleep on our layovers and have a few more bucks in our accounts. We're at the low point in the arc, but then upswing is coming.

Or the mainline partners will drive the regionals into bankruptcy (like Delta did) and reset the rates that way.

 

[derg]

The point I am making is with Endeavor and now PSA signing their contracts, the bar has been lowered. The pilots really have gotten nothing in return for this bar lowering. Portable Longevity is a dead topic right now. A lot of ships have sailed What isn't though is a way to get guys from regionals to the legacies. I am talking about a flow program, where you have the mainline partner (which your company is doing now at Compass and Endeavor) and they look to hire the person rather than the hour requirement. The mainline partners would be open to this, but they would need to control the pipeline hiring wise. A person at would need to pass the various tests, even to fly for that mainline's regional as someone would need to pass coming from the street.

I am vehemently against flow throughs.

Absolutely.

And companies that want to dangle it as a carrot to get to a regional, be a good little boy so that one day you'll "flow up" to the bigs is a terrible plan.

We had somewhat of a flow-through at Skyway and it was a detriment to safety.

If I had a dollar for every time I said, "Captain, I don't think we have any MEL relief on this" and was answered "Well, I have my interview next month, I really don't want to have a delay on my record", I, well, could probably almost buy a lap dance during lunch at a strip club if some new hire doesn't rat me out. ))

Pilots were more concerned with not calling in sick (when they were sick), not delaying flights (because then you're on the radar, and MidEx didn't like delays), not writing things up in outstations (because you'd get flagged and then MidEx would hear about that) and making all sorts of poor decisions because they felt they were under the microscope.

We don't need more of that. NO.

We don't want to lock in that mentality in this business with the kind nods of the union because once we do, the backstabbing, glad-handing and people pushing the limits in order to "look good for Mamma Mainline" will be detrimental to safety.

If the regionals are having staffing issues, they should. It's called economics and there is no incentive for a smart young person who majored in STEM to involve himself in a profession run by people who want to treat us like it's September 12, 2001 meanwhile sit behind burnished mahogany desks and make millions per month like it's mother-trucking 1999.

Some of us have just "had it" and are ready to push back for once.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Then what would fix the problem Charlie?

Actually, it is Delta wanting to reset the regional rates/work rules.

Or the mainline partners will drive the regionals into bankruptcy (like Delta did) and reset the rates that way.

What would fix the problem? Not caving. Capacity agreements are spread thin. Everybody's growing- nobody's got spare bodies or airframes. But hey, mainline wants to cut our feed so everybody empty their pockets? It's time to start fighting back. No more concessions- anywhere. Everybody pledges to go current book or better, always, and nobody picks up flying currently done by somebody else. A little solidarity would go a long way these days.

And it doesn't matter if Delta resets the rates or who does what. Regional airline managers are just the middlemen. The only reason Delta could reset the rates is because currently the the impact of the changes in airline labor cost have yet to be fully felt. As the draw on the pool continues, people feeling the pinch that are junior enough will just bail out for what they perceive as better opportunities. I happened in 2007 just because some places offered faster upgrade. It could just as easily happen again.

In short- cutting contracts and threatening to take away flying only works if there's a surplus of supply to fill the gap- which previously, there has been. In the near future, there won't be. With mainline pilot retirement and attrition and regional pilots moving up in the ranks respectively, the demand is about to cavitate the pump. Once that happens, pilots facing a forced reset will likely abandon ship for greener pastures. Simple supply and demand will cause the cost of pilots to rise, and airlines won't be able to be so cavalier about taking things from us when they'll be that much more dependent on us.

Here's a real world example of how this has already happened. In 2007, CJC changed horses midstream on a lot of people. A lot of the things I was promised or told to expect became radically different, so I went looking for the exit. Within six weeks, I had a new job, in addition to interview requests at four other carriers. While in the HR department during my interview at my new gig, I was asked what was 'so enticing' about CJC- becausee FOs from Eagle were bailing out like crazy for CJC- and Skywest. Why? The one thing Eagle couldn't offer at the time. TPIC. Skywest's upgrade was low, and CJC was hiring street captains. At the time, I think a street captain at CJC made less than an EMJ FO did at Eagle. Weird, right? They had what pilots wanted.

 

[Gonzo]

Yeah, that's crap. Fortunately for me, I write stuff up all the time. *shrugs*

The problem is as FOs at Eagle we don't write anything up. We point stuff out and the CA writes it up.

 

[Firebird2XC]

If the regionals are having staffing issues, they should. It's called economics and there is no incentive for a smart young person who majored in STEM to involve himself in a profession run by people who want to treat us like it's September 12, 2001 meanwhile sit behind burnished mahogany desks and make millions per month.

Some of us have just "had it" and are ready to push back for once.

BOOYAH! This is exactly the point!

 

[Seggy]

Some of us have just "had it" and are ready to push back for once.

Fair enough.

 

[Firebird2XC]

The problem is as FOs at Eagle we don't write anything up. We point stuff out and the CA writes it up.

Speak for yourself and stop dabbling in semantics. Pick up the hand mike and call it in. Once it's in the computer, the book better match or the Feds will have your ass.

... as the Captain was off smoking or scratching his ass or whatever they do when I'm pre-flighting, I'm just doing what would happen anyway, right? Don't be afraid to show some initiative, man.

Ever been post-flighting and find something and then realize the Captain already skated? Call it in, leave a note on some scratch paper, and let maintenance put ink in the book. Easy.