The future of pilot jobs

[Trip7]

On the other hand, I met alot of guys that CFId for 3000 hours, then took a crappy 135 job for a couple more thousand hours until they could get an interview at a commuter that had pay for training. They paid 10-15 grand for a job that paid 13 first year. 10 years later they were still at the same commuter. Some left, some didn't.

Polar this is almost the exact words the senior captains I fly with use when they tell me how lucky my generation is. Thats why Im shocked when people just entering the industry are complaining like momma dragged them into the airline industry. Look, most of us CFIed for 6 months or less, got hired at a regional well below 1000hrs, got PAID training, PAID hotel, and a somewhat livable first year pay (hey 23/hr is alot better than 19/hr, especially with paid training).

And many in my generation like to refer back to the "good ole days", saying that its gone. Pleez, you wouldn't have lasted 6 months CFIing in the "good ole days" if you're complaining this much now.

Im not saying at all that the profession is perfect as there is still much room for improvement. But as you can see from more seasoned pilot's past experiences like Polar, there has been steady improvement. Right now I consider myself very lucky and grateful to be where Im at. Those in my generation that whine about current conditions is like giving a slap in the face to the more seasoned pilots who endured much more pain to get where they are today.

I do not hope the pilots that come after me will have an easier transition into the industry. I know they will.

 

[Boris Badenov]

It's maybe worth considering where the negative vibes are coming from. Do you REALLY want to fly an RJ? As for the future of the industry, it ain't bright. It's well and good to say "it's all cyclical". No doubt there were huge cycles in the train conducting world and a bunch of guys gathered around the boiler saying "Listen youngun, you just have to pay your dues. You love trains, right? What could be better than seeing the country and getting paid by the railroad?"

Gas isn't going to get cheaper, and capacity isn't going to go up anytime soon. This is partly counterbalanced by the fact that it now costs a small fortune to fly a 152 around in circles. That said, in the next 5 years, we'll see the economy tank in a way that makes 2001 look like 1925. Petroleum issues aside, there are a economic chickens coming home to roost from '71 and the New Deal that will completely transform our way of life and standard of living. Sure, there are worse things to be doing when the fan is splattered (I wouldn't, for example, want to be hanging my hat on investment banking, however lucrative it is for now), but when double digit inflation hits, flying to des moines to visit grandma tends to hit the chopping block before feeding the kids.

I like flying, it's a cool job, and I certainly always pictured myself "in the cockpit". To suggest, however, that one ought to define their lives by the job they've chosen is, forgive me, pathetic.

What's most poignant for me is the absolute, undiluted fact that no one will ever listen. There is no 20-something year old kid who is going to hear you when you say "yeah but" about the flying lifestyle. Not one. We all know this is true because we all were once 20-something year old kids. Would you have listened? Did you drive fast and take chances? Were you invincible? Getting mad at kids for being kids is just pissing in the wind. This is how it is and ever shall it be so. Use the time you'd otherwise spend preaching to the deaf to instead further your education and start investing (in commodities, not stocks). Take a walk in the park. It's not so much that it doesn't (or at least doesn't often) suck, but that there is no value in crying over spilt milk. Not for you or for anybody else (as I said, they'll never listen). If you're one of the guys who through both luck and skill made it where you wanted to be, enjoy it for the rest of us. If you're not, swallow the ####sandwich with as much good grace as you can. It can always be worse.

I can say, at least, that I'm glad I didn't become a welder.

PS. I'm reminded of a passage from my favorite book (which I'm paraphrasing). "People of a certain disposition spend 99% of their time scaring the everloving (bleep) out of themselves regarding things that they think will happen. 100% of the time, those things don't happen, at least not in the way that they imagined they would." If you want to fly, fly. If you think it's a bad gamble and a crazy thing to do, you're probably right.

 

[Bama]

Hello all,
I'm sorry if this has already been discussed or this is in the wrong forum. After reading several articles and seeing how the US economy is sliding down, do you still think this is a good time to get into aviation?

I'm 29 and have seriousely been considering getting my loan together and head off to flight school. I'm not sure if I want to go the airline route since that is just one path that you can take if your a pilot, however if the oppurtunity arose I would be glad to start flying regionals and work my way towards the major's.

All I've read in the last year in aviation magazines is how this is the time to be a pilot because of the pilot shortage and this and that, which threw fuel onto my fire of wanting to become a pilot. However, after considering this latest fuel/oil price crisis and the overall condition of the US economy, is this still a good time to get into aviation?

I don't want to spend upwards of 50K on flight school and then be stuck scratching my head afterwards watching the airlines laying off people.

So what do you guys opinions?

The lesson to be learned from this forum... Make your own decision.

At the end of the day.. it's just a job. But there's a reason there is no pilot shortage. Know what I mean?

Life is VERY short.. and sometimes you have to man up and take some risks.

Also, ask yourself would you rather be outside looking in and relieved that you don't have to worry about the future of the airline biz... or kicking yourself later on because you didn't go for it. Chances are, either perspective will be accurate. Peace

 

[surreal1221]

Also, not too sure if it has been mentioned before. . .BUT

There are other flying jobs besides flying for a 121 Passenger operation.

 

[Snare17]

Good advice, Boris. I'm one of those twenty somethings who is about ready to dive into the pile. Will I take head to every piece of advice thrown into this conversation? Heck no. There's too much of it and its all contradictory.

I've learned a lot since I began this whole "become a pilot" quest. I was ready to throw down everything, take out a (then $60,000) loan, run to ATP without an education or any ratings prior, and get my ticket.

Now, things are much different. I'm studying my ass off trying to get my bachelor's degree, albeit in aviation (my choice). I just decided to get my PPL locally, and I figure that by the time I'm done with all of that (3 years), things will look mighty different in terms of industry landscape and all of this whining and angry egotistic bickering will be moot.

I get it, we're jumping into a snake pit, so don't be afraid if we get bitten in the arse. There has to be SOMETHING good that we can look forward to. With the way that the economy is right now, anyone could potentially get canned from a job. The jobs that tend to be the most secure jobs require masters degrees or doctrines, and I don't see anyone on here recommending that we go and take out loans for hundreds of thousands of dollars just so we can avoid possibly being furloughed down the line.

So have I learned some things? I think I certainly have. Am I going to listen to the anarchists on here that are screaming "stay away at all costs!". Not a chance. Why? Because that's just someone else's personal insecurities shining through.

I've been teaching young people for 8 years now, in a couple of different arenas, and I know that if you want to get through to them, you better not just shove them a load of "listen to me because i'm smarter than you" or "this is the only way it can be". No one takes that kind of advice because it's not advice at all. If you want people to make solid educated decisions, and take something away from the experiences and insights provided on boards like these, then there should be positive discussion. Because really, the negativety just makes people not want to listen to whoever is spilling it out. It takes away credibility and destroys and buy-in that people may have. Tell us what we're doing right, and how we can use that to prepare for what MIGHT go wrong.

Lastly, none of you have crystal balls. None of you can tell the future (so throw that cheap deck of cards away). We don't know what will happen today, tomorrow, or 5 years from now. You can't predict that fuel will double, people will stop flying, the economy will collapse, the dollar will be worth less than pesos, etc.. You just don't know. People are working on solutions, whether you know it or not. Someone just posted the topic on a renewable bio-mass fuel source for general aviation. They posted that and then 10 other negativos slammed it went on to their next forum to slam. How pathetic. Good things are happening, and change isn't always bad.

Discuss, positively.

 

[Chris_Ford]

Good advice, Boris. I'm one of those twenty somethings who is about ready to dive into the pile. Will I take head to every piece of advice thrown into this conversation? Heck no. There's too much of it and its all contradictory.

I've learned a lot since I began this whole "become a pilot" quest. I was ready to throw down everything, take out a (then $60,000) loan, run to ATP without an education or any ratings prior, and get my ticket.

Now, things are much different. I'm studying my ass off trying to get my bachelor's degree, albeit in aviation (my choice). I just decided to get my PPL locally, and I figure that by the time I'm done with all of that (3 years), things will look mighty different in terms of industry landscape and all of this whining and angry egotistic bickering will be moot.

Good on you on getting a degree. Bad on you on getting an aviation degree. Good on you getting your PPL locally, bad on you thinking that what's being said in this thread is simply "whining and angry egotistic bickering".

I get it, we're jumping into a snake pit, so don't be afraid if we get bitten in the arse. There has to be SOMETHING good that we can look forward to. With the way that the economy is right now, anyone could potentially get canned from a job. The jobs that tend to be the most secure jobs require masters degrees or doctrines, and I don't see anyone on here recommending that we go and take out loans for hundreds of thousands of dollars just so we can avoid possibly being furloughed down the line.

1) The flying part is fun.
2) The difference between this and any other job is that when you get canned at THIS job, you have to start at the bottom rung of the ladder all over again. Captains at Aloha are now working as FOs at Compass (true story). At least in other industries you might get by taking only a 10% paycut.

So have I learned some things? I think I certainly have. Am I going to listen to the anarchists on here that are screaming "stay away at all costs!". Not a chance. Why? Because that's just someone else's personal insecurities shining through.

I don't think anyone, myself included, has said "stay away at all costs." The intention is more of a "There are a lot of other options and don't be blinded by your heart to find a job that may suit you better." From what I've encountered, a lot of the "smarter" people in this industry just do not find this job as rewarding as you would think. Sure, it's not always "hard work" but even the hardest days aren't anything more than mentally fatiguing.

I've been teaching young people for 8 years now, in a couple of different arenas, and I know that if you want to get through to them, you better not just shove them a load of "listen to me because i'm smarter than you" or "this is the only way it can be". No one takes that kind of advice because it's not advice at all. If you want people to make solid educated decisions, and take something away from the experiences and insights provided on boards like these, then there should be positive discussion. Because really, the negativety just makes people not want to listen to whoever is spilling it out. It takes away credibility and destroys and buy-in that people may have. Tell us what we're doing right, and how we can use that to prepare for what MIGHT go wrong.

Regardless of how the message is told, the message is going to be negative. When was the last time there was any GOOD news about aviation? I'd venture to say since 9/11, there hasn't been any long-lasting GOOD news.

Right now this has gotten to the "ex-girlfriend" stage. You know when you're talking to a friend who is thinking about getting back with his ex-girlfriend while drunk one night? You can tell him over and over why it's a bad idea and provide enough evidence, but he won't listen to you. Why? Not because you're being negative, but simply because his heart is talking louder than his brain is. All I'm saying is, take your heart out of it for a moment and try to look at the airlines objectively. And remember that the airlines aren't the end-all, be-all. There are still a ton of great flying jobs out there... I'd even venture to say that the Major Airlines aren't even in the top 3 anymore.

A lot of people seem to think that there's another hey-day of the airlines returning. Fact of the matter is, the airline "glory" is long gone. It will never be back. However, too many people getting involved in this industry still think that it exists, and they're the type of people who can't do anything other than fly an airplane. You seem like you're smart enough to go do another job, and I'm saying that you should at the very least give it a very STRONG consideration.

 

[planesiscool]

Hello all,
I'm sorry if this has already been discussed or this is in the wrong forum. After reading several articles and seeing how the US economy is sliding down, do you still think this is a good time to get into aviation?

I'm 29 and have seriousely been considering getting my loan together and head off to flight school. I'm not sure if I want to go the airline route since that is just one path that you can take if your a pilot, however if the oppurtunity arose I would be glad to start flying regionals and work my way towards the major's.

All I've read in the last year in aviation magazines is how this is the time to be a pilot because of the pilot shortage and this and that, which threw fuel onto my fire of wanting to become a pilot. However, after considering this latest fuel/oil price crisis and the overall condition of the US economy, is this still a good time to get into aviation?

I don't want to spend upwards of 50K on flight school and then be stuck scratching my head afterwards watching the airlines laying off people.

So what do you guys opinions?

I am in a similar boat with you my friend. I don't know what other people's take on here is because I haven't read all of the posts but I would say do it. However, I might tell you to do it while you work until you see the industry coming out of the tailspin it is in right now. Everybody is freaking out about oil and gas prices but oil is a commodity and has doubled in price over the past year which, historically, is a sign of a bubble. Bubbles always burst so I think the industry is definitely going to rebound 08-09 maybe tough years but I think we will weather the storm. I'm going to get my ratings on the side while I continue to work. I know the cost of training is high but I'll be able to pay for about half of mine while I work plus if the industry starts looking good and I need to hurry I can quit and finish it up quick. I have that option because I have a working spouse. That's my advice man. Keep your options open because if you don't like being a pro pilot and you decide it is just a hobby then you can go back to what you were doing. I am kind of like alot of people here I say it's better do it then look back and go "Man! I wish I had been a pilot!" I figure you'll figure out whether you really want to do it or not during your training.

 

[planesiscool]

It's maybe worth considering where the negative vibes are coming from. Do you REALLY want to fly an RJ? As for the future of the industry, it ain't bright. It's well and good to say "it's all cyclical". No doubt there were huge cycles in the train conducting world and a bunch of guys gathered around the boiler saying "Listen youngun, you just have to pay your dues. You love trains, right? What could be better than seeing the country and getting paid by the railroad?"

Gas isn't going to get cheaper, and capacity isn't going to go up anytime soon. This is partly counterbalanced by the fact that it now costs a small fortune to fly a 152 around in circles. That said, in the next 5 years, we'll see the economy tank in a way that makes 2001 look like 1925. Petroleum issues aside, there are a economic chickens coming home to roost from '71 and the New Deal that will completely transform our way of life and standard of living. Sure, there are worse things to be doing when the fan is splattered (I wouldn't, for example, want to be hanging my hat on investment banking, however lucrative it is for now), but when double digit inflation hits, flying to des moines to visit grandma tends to hit the chopping block before feeding the kids.

I like flying, it's a cool job, and I certainly always pictured myself "in the cockpit". To suggest, however, that one ought to define their lives by the job they've chosen is, forgive me, pathetic.

What's most poignant for me is the absolute, undiluted fact that no one will ever listen. There is no 20-something year old kid who is going to hear you when you say "yeah but" about the flying lifestyle. Not one. We all know this is true because we all were once 20-something year old kids. Would you have listened? Did you drive fast and take chances? Were you invincible? Getting mad at kids for being kids is just pissing in the wind. This is how it is and ever shall it be so. Use the time you'd otherwise spend preaching to the deaf to instead further your education and start investing (in commodities, not stocks). Take a walk in the park. It's not so much that it doesn't (or at least doesn't often) suck, but that there is no value in crying over spilt milk. Not for you or for anybody else (as I said, they'll never listen). If you're one of the guys who through both luck and skill made it where you wanted to be, enjoy it for the rest of us. If you're not, swallow the ####sandwich with as much good grace as you can. It can always be worse.

I can say, at least, that I'm glad I didn't become a welder.

PS. I'm reminded of a passage from my favorite book (which I'm paraphrasing). "People of a certain disposition spend 99% of their time scaring the everloving (bleep) out of themselves regarding things that they think will happen. 100% of the time, those things don't happen, at least not in the way that they imagined they would." If you want to fly, fly. If you think it's a bad gamble and a crazy thing to do, you're probably right.

All right. Boris...you don't know much about the oil business and you believe the media way too much. Oil WILL come down because the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the price we are at right now. I get sick and tired of the arrogant people on here and people I know that think they are experts on Oil because they watch the news too much. Oil is a commodity and it has DOUBLED in the last year and demand is declining! That is what economists would call a bubble; most commodities are in a bubble right now because the dollar fell and they are trying to hedge against inflation. There is no shortage of oil right now the speculation is looking 30 years down the road. We may not drop below $50/bbl again unless of course we drill for our own oil. I am telling you there is more oil out there than most people realize. Now stop the doom and gloom crap about how gas will never come down again...it may not be $1.50/gal but it won't stay at $4 for long.

 

[MQAAord]

Wow. Did I just agree with everything Chris Ford said, and think he deserves a compliment on how it was said?

I think that was a good job of telling a "real" side of the life, and NOT coming off as a jerk.

 

[BobDDuck]

I know, I was reading the CF stuff and thinking... maybe he isn't such a bastard

Really people... if you want to get into the industry, good for you. Just make sure in your haste to get the job you "always dreamed of" you aren't a) selling your self short or b) undercutting somebody else.

At the end of the day it's a job, and not much more. It's a hell of a lot better of a job then a bunch of other's I've had, but it is still a job. As long as you don't come in thinking it is going to be a be all and end all and the best thing eva, you'll probably be ok. As far as I can tell, the trick is having a backup plan (or three) and not being afraid to walk away at any point in time.

 

[killbilly]

All right. Boris...you don't know much about the oil business and you believe the media way too much. Oil WILL come down because the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the price we are at right now. I get sick and tired of the arrogant people on here and people I know that think they are experts on Oil because they watch the news too much. Oil is a commodity and it has DOUBLED in the last year and demand is declining! That is what economists would call a bubble; most commodities are in a bubble right now because the dollar fell and they are trying to hedge against inflation. There is no shortage of oil right now the speculation is looking 30 years down the road. We may not drop below $50/bbl again unless of course we drill for our own oil. I am telling you there is more oil out there than most people realize. Now stop the doom and gloom crap about how gas will never come down again...it may not be $1.50/gal but it won't stay at $4 for long.

I'm interested in your opinions here. Would you mind citing a couple of sources here, because I would like to understand your stated position a little better.

 

[charlie1017]

I'm interested in your opinions here. Would you mind citing a couple of sources here, because I would like to understand your stated position a little better.

:yeahthat:
What about the surging demand from China and India???

 

[Flyin_bryan]

I think this is a good thread that may be headed in the wrong direction. Here are my thoughts.

you don't know much about the oil business and you believe the media way too much.

I dont think that the above statement is adding to the conversation.

Talking about future oil prices going up is a VALID response in a thread about "the future of pilot jobs". State your opinion, have a dialouge, do not "you dont know much" anyone.

fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the price we are at right now.

I find this to be a flawed statement. Current prices are a reflection of supply and demand in a free maket economy.

I get sick and tired of the arrogant people on here and people I know that think they are experts on Oil because they watch the news too much.

First of all, no one cares about how sick and tired planesiscool is. Second, if you are degrading the professionals in the journalism business I will have none of that. Third, some JC'ers may watch the news AND read newspapers AND have masters degrees AND are in the oil industry, your umbrella statements are unwelcome here.

Oil is a commodity and it has DOUBLED in the last year and demand is declining!

I would be happy for anyone to post evidence of a major decline of oil demand.

For crude oil prices to begin a long term decline, one of three things will need to happen.

1. Consumer demand will need to decline
2. Investor demand will need to decline
3. Global production will need to grow

We must then examine each of these and determine the likelihood of any of these occurring in the near future to determine if prices can reverse in any meaningful way.

Consumer Demand

Oil Bears often cite the fact that the US consumer is “cutting back” on gasoline consumption due to higher prices. While this may be true, the cut back is minimal at best. The latest EIA report shows the US consuming 9.343 million barrels of gasoline a day, down from last year’s 9.404 figure. That’s a whopping 0.65 %. Crude oil demand is expected to drop slightly in the US in 2008 by about 190,000 barrels per day (the US currently consumes over 21 million barrels of oil per day). However, this decrease has been more than offset by increased demand outside of North America. Chinese demand alone has increased by 400,000 barrels per day in 2008. Overall, global demand for oil is projected to rise 1.2 million barrels per day in 2008.

Investor Demand

The hedge fund industry currently controls more than $1.8 trillion in investor capital. And while the growth rate of hedge fund inflows slowed in Q1 of 2008, the industry continues to grow as a whole. Yet, while hedge funds are typically for the wealthy, the average investor now has access to the oil markets through the new Oil ETF’s, possibly the fastest growing segment of investor demand. Add to that the traditional oil futures trader and one has an army of hungry investors ready to pounce on the slightest bullish news story relating to oil. Gold and Silver have been the traditional choice for a hedge against a falling dollar and rising inflation. But with crude possessing the news headlines and a solid fundamental story, it has equaled or surpassed precious metals as the top choice for an inflation hedge. Europe’s bullish announcement on GDP growth in Q1 this week lent fresh strength to the Euro and should be one factor continuing to pressure the dollar in Q2. Crude should remain a top choice for investors in Q2 and Q3 2008.

Global Production

It can be argued that the entire bull case of crude oil is based on production. Crude demand is at a record and continues to rise. But demand for crude has steadily risen for the last 50 years, albeit not as rapidly as within the last 10. Rising demand is not a problem, as long as supplies rise in unison. In the US, production has fallen from 6.5 million barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2008, a drop off of nearly 21%. The US has made up the difference in imports. However, with global demand jumping by nearly 20% in that same time period, producers have ramped up production to near maximum capacity. Yet, Russia, the world’s largest oil producer and second largest exporter saw production decline in Q1 2008.

OPEC production has hovered between 31-33 million barrels per day for the last four years. Yet oil prices have increased by nearly 200% during that same time period. Saudi Arabia, thought to be the only country left with any spare production capacity, has refused to increase production, even at the second request of President Bush this week. OPEC has kept output targets unchanged during its past three meetings despite oil surging $25 per barrel of the course of the meetings. Saudi Oil minister Ali al-Naimi blames “market turbulence,” not demand for higher prices.

Yes, you read that correctly.

If the product you are selling has increased in price by 200% in 4 years and you have not increased your output of that product during the same time, economics lead to only one explanation: You don’t have the product to provide. Economic sense would dictate that with oil at $125 a barrel, Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be pumping all the oil and using all of the excess capacity they have in order to capitalize on the higher prices. It lends a load of credibility to the argument that Saudi excess capacity has been exaggerated and that there is a reason they are not operating at maximum capacity. It could be because they are already operating at maximum capacity.

Despite bullish fundamentals that do not appear to be changing anytime soon, oil prices have raced up dramatically which will leave the market prone to sharp waves of speculator liquidation.

it won't stay at $4 for long.

Lastly, I agree with your final statement, but arrive at a different conclusion. Gas prices wont stay at $4/gal for long, they will far surpass that mark. Goldman Sachs this week raised its forecast for crude oil to $141 per barrel in the second half of 2008 and forecast $148 oil for 2009.

 

[cfii2007]

The future of pilot jobs is to replace them with chimpanzees. The biggest challenge will be to try and teach them not to make doo-doo in the cockpit.

 

[Boris Badenov]

I've been teaching young people for 8 years now, in a couple of different arenas, and I know that if you want to get through to them, you better not just shove them a load of "listen to me because i'm smarter than you" or "this is the only way it can be". No one takes that kind of advice because it's not advice at all. If you want people to make solid educated decisions, and take something away from the experiences and insights provided on boards like these, then there should be positive discussion. Because really, the negativety just makes people not want to listen to whoever is spilling it out. It takes away credibility and destroys and buy-in that people may have. Tell us what we're doing right, and how we can use that to prepare for what MIGHT go wrong.

Very well said. As you point out, I don't have any information you don't have regarding "the future of the profession". My thoughts lead me to think that we'll see steadily declining real-earnings potential and most likely steadily declining work rules along with neutral or very slightly positive growth for the foreseeable future. But that's an analysis of an incredibly complicated set of circumstances by someone who does not have one of those terminal degrees, either. The part of my post I meant to identify as most important was the "Don't get worked up when someone is young, motivated, and sees a limitless future". Maybe they're right and will get YOU a job at UPS/Fedex/Whatever. Sure it's not very likely, but it's all a question of what you're willing to consider. For my part, I'll keep my own council and I'd recommend that you do the same...as you said, too many opinions out there. I think it might also be worth noting that so many of the opinions you run across, particularly on the internet, have a questionable relationship with the author's ego (i.e. It's fun to be Right). I'm probably just as guilty of it as anyone else, but it's worth remembering.

All right. Boris...you don't know much about the oil business and you believe the media way too much. Oil WILL come down because the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the price we are at right now. I get sick and tired of the arrogant people on here and people I know that think they are experts on Oil because they watch the news too much. Oil is a commodity and it has DOUBLED in the last year and demand is declining! That is what economists would call a bubble; most commodities are in a bubble right now because the dollar fell and they are trying to hedge against inflation. There is no shortage of oil right now the speculation is looking 30 years down the road. We may not drop below $50/bbl again unless of course we drill for our own oil. I am telling you there is more oil out there than most people realize. Now stop the doom and gloom crap about how gas will never come down again...it may not be $1.50/gal but it won't stay at $4 for long.

You're right when you say that I don't know much about the oil industry. I will point out that people have been talking about a speculation bubble since 2003-4/$2.00/gal. From my very limited understanding of the industry, we'll likely see a reduction in price somewhere around the end of the summer, but I don't think it'll be the $2 drop everyone is praying for, and even that's predicated on a reduction in the hysteria. Regardless, I'm somewhat more comfortable with my long term economic predictions sans-petroleum, simply because the problems are so glaringly apparent if one is inclined to look. The "sub-prime mortgage crisis" is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to problems with the economy. We're steaming in to a perfect storm of rising discretionary spending, gargantuan unfunded obligations, an availability of information which will make central bank currency practices an item of shall we say "heated debate", and declining international prominence. You add those things together, and it's going to be a bumpy decade in the US. I'll go ahead and step out of the closet and confess to being "one of those nutbars" and suggest that you pick up a copy of Ron Paul's "The Revolution". It massively simplifies (sometimes oversimplifies) the problems we're facing, but at least he's willing to talk about them. Everyone else is whistling past the graveyard.

 

[WCAT1918]

I have not posted on here in a while, but I personally have learned alot from these forums about the realities of this business. My whole life I've been a dreamer and I remember how a silly computer game(flightsim) eventually kick started my flight training and here I am not too far away from a commercial certificate. After I graduated high school I wanted to get out of town and go to a big collegiate aviation program and I figured since this place had a relationship with the regional carrier I wanted to fly for(Horizon) and heard so many great things about, I figured what a great combo.

Not too long ago I had the privilege of flying in a cheyenne and piper cub with a very experienced flight instructor who never takes a day off from his job(he calls it a hobby b/c he has another job) who i met through my uncle who he hired to fly him between his homes in cleveland and cape cod. never did I learn so much and get such a gratifying experience out of flying than I did in those few weeks flying alongside him. I'll never forget the two pieces of advice he told me about flying that have stuck in my brain since, "anyone can learn to fly, but the best pilots are the ones that have an acute understanding of the weather and how it affects their airplane" and, "if you really love flying, do it for fun and don't make a career out of it."

The last piece of advice discouraged me because I wanted to be an airline pilot so bad, but now here I am back home going to the local fbo saving the dough, getting a real degree where i get to meet and work with fascinating people(psych), attending a much better university with the "college life" in full swing and getting to pursue other passions like drinking and women lol j/k(sorta). The regional i wanted to go to so bad isn't so attractive anymore now that they will be shrinking rapidly, the notoriously long upgrade times are expected to get longer and not to mention oil prices haven't shown any signs of going down and everyday i read more stories about crappy working conditions, getting screwed by management, training costs to get ratings increasing while pay at the airlines and other establishments arent...

But there are other flying jobs outside the airlines. Im going to finish up my commercial and multi and then my buddy has a job lined up for me next summer flying a twin back east. I can't wait for the opportunity, but the reality is its only a small part time gig and once the fall hits, I'll be back in school. Ill prob do some CFing after that too and then once I get my degree, it's time to figure out a career. i still am a dreamer there is something incredibly attractive and undeniable about being one with the depths of the ocean blue sky or getting to view the vast and wondrous world below from a unique vantage point, landing in a serene sunset or conquering a ferocious xwind that tested every decadent part of your human ability. But one day when I'm old and gray, something tells me life will be more enjoyable being able to see my children grow everyday, to coach their little league teams, and to be home for my wife's anniversary than up in the skies followed by spending another night alone in a dark hotel room earning another paycheck that's just another ends to a means...but please whatever you do don't accuse me and say I'm not cut out to be a commercial pilot...I'm still a dreamer, just not as much of a keen believer that a well rounded educated human being can only picture himself flying for a living for the rest of his career.

 

[esa17]

Somehow I'm shocked at the amount of responses to my question.

Why present logical solutions when you can complain on high I guess.

 

[derg]

Somehow I'm shocked at the amount of responses to my question.

Why present logical solutions when you can complain on high I guess.

Type-A's, plus advanced keyboarding skillz.

 

[jtrain609]

Type-A's, plus advanced keyboarding skillz.

It's also the same responses, just a couple of years later. I remember people flying off the handle when they were told in 2002 that there are downsides to this job and that they were seeing a lot of them right now. They'd stomp their feet, say it ain't so, take out a $26,000 loan for ATP and come back a year later and say, "Hey you guys were right!"

Really? No ####...

 

[planesiscool]

Very well said. As you point out, I don't have any information you don't have regarding "the future of the profession". My thoughts lead me to think that we'll see steadily declining real-earnings potential and most likely steadily declining work rules along with neutral or very slightly positive growth for the foreseeable future. But that's an analysis of an incredibly complicated set of circumstances by someone who does not have one of those terminal degrees, either. The part of my post I meant to identify as most important was the "Don't get worked up when someone is young, motivated, and sees a limitless future". Maybe they're right and will get YOU a job at UPS/Fedex/Whatever. Sure it's not very likely, but it's all a question of what you're willing to consider. For my part, I'll keep my own council and I'd recommend that you do the same...as you said, too many opinions out there. I think it might also be worth noting that so many of the opinions you run across, particularly on the internet, have a questionable relationship with the author's ego (i.e. It's fun to be Right). I'm probably just as guilty of it as anyone else, but it's worth remembering.



You're right when you say that I don't know much about the oil industry. I will point out that people have been talking about a speculation bubble since 2003-4/$2.00/gal. From my very limited understanding of the industry, we'll likely see a reduction in price somewhere around the end of the summer, but I don't think it'll be the $2 drop everyone is praying for, and even that's predicated on a reduction in the hysteria. Regardless, I'm somewhat more comfortable with my long term economic predictions sans-petroleum, simply because the problems are so glaringly apparent if one is inclined to look. The "sub-prime mortgage crisis" is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to problems with the economy. We're steaming in to a perfect storm of rising discretionary spending, gargantuan unfunded obligations, an availability of information which will make central bank currency practices an item of shall we say "heated debate", and declining international prominence. You add those things together, and it's going to be a bumpy decade in the US. I'll go ahead and step out of the closet and confess to being "one of those nutbars" and suggest that you pick up a copy of Ron Paul's "The Revolution". It massively simplifies (sometimes oversimplifies) the problems we're facing, but at least he's willing to talk about them. Everyone else is whistling past the graveyard.

Boris,
I must apologize for my outburst; I was seeing so much negative stuff about the profession I want to go into that I lashed out. I also apologize for calling you arrogant. I don't think you are a nut bar for following Ron Paul because the vast majority of his positions I agree with. He is admirably and deeply rooted in the constitution, and I actually think his book would be a good read. It pissed me off quite a bit that people would laugh at him at the Republican debates because this man knew the constitution better than any of them. I think you are right with our government we are piling up debt faster than we can blink($53 trillion is the best estimate I've heard from the GAO) and we have got real problems. I do think, however, that we can get through all of this stuff and I think we can find an alternative fuel to oil(coal to liquid being the best solution). All though oil is used to make so many products I don't know if we will ever be able to get off of oil completely however transportation fuel makes up between 40-50% of our oil demand.