You guys make a good point. Busting DH is actually the easy decision if the situation turned out as I described. How I got in that situation will be much better discussion, so here it goes and I'll try not to ramble.
The flight is FLX752(if you're bored and want to watch a 210/Baron TRY to dodge storms, haha) from OMA to STP via Fort Dodge and Mankato departing at 6:30 A.M. Weather forecast for the time of arrival when I checked was going to be 800-2 at MSP, the FA indicated that as well throughout most of Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Anyone who works in the MSP area regularly may remember the day I'm talking about. This was about a month ago I'd say.
That day was going to be in the Baron(Woohoo!). Anyone that's ever flown the Baron knows that with full fuel, it's useful load is absolutely worthless. So we're weight restricted with fuel all the time. Today I could take 2.5 hours of fuel plus the 45 minute reserve. So 3.2 hours total. Also, anyone that's flown the Baron knows that that there's absolutely no way to know for sure how much gas is in it unless you fill it up. Timing is the only way to estimate. A lot of trust goes into the previous pilot's knowledge of the fuel used. Which is why I expressed such emphasis on the uncertainty of the fuel level in the original post.
I'm enroute and I usually get a weather update over Fort Dodge on days like this. This is my go-no go point while enroute. Diverting anywhere else in this area is going to mean a LONG day trying to get a hotel, or sleeping on an FBO couch all day. Certain safety situations be damned, fatigue from this is worse. ANYWAYYYSSS, It's at this point I find out that underneath these clouds, fog has developed literally everywhere, not just in a few areas like it was before. MSP taf is now calling for 300-1, but is currently reporting 100-1/4 as well as every other field in the area except STP. STP is saying 300-1(right at mins for the ILS 32). That elevation change really is a blessing sometimes. I get the best information I can from FSS and determine that the Sioux Falls area is the best bet. It's VMC and forecast to stay VMC until at least noon.
Time enroute is planned to take 1.4 hours. 20 minutes to Anoka. The actual flight time matched. I got the calculator out and determined it would take 45 minutes to get to Sioux Falls. I already threw my alternate out at this point, so with the 1.4 hours to get to STP, that would give me 1.1 hours until I hit reserve after going missed in STP. Good good.
Like, I said, I shot the approach down to mins and landed no problem. It was after when I checked the weather that I found that it would have taken me an 1.2-1.3 hours to get to Sioux Falls and the weather was going to be the same as MSP, below mins. Not really a dire situation. I'll agree with that, but it sure is nerve racking as hell when you're by yourself up there with very little tools available.
SO, in that situation, with the information that was available, would have have just diverted to the Sioux Falls area while you were over Fort Dodge, or would you have done what I did and continued to STP? After typing this all out, I know the answer already, but I'm curious what others think.
Given the information I had at the time, I feel continuing to STP was the right thing to do. At the very least from an operational standpoint. Risk management wise, I'm on the fence. Pucker factor at the very least, is annoying. Finding out that had things not worked out in STP, I was going to be in the situation I described in the original post. Which I find unnerving after the fact. Taking a light twin to the runway on instruments sounds scary...
Long post is long, let me know if you need more details. All you really need to know I guess is that the weather was forecast to be fine, and then fog took three and a half states to hell in a hand basket.
