Next Up in the RLA Conga Line

[MikeD]

I’d be curious where you heard March 31? We just got an update today re-emphasizing we are not close to a deal. I hope you’re right, but at moment it’s being portrayed that there are still some significant gaps between us and management in the big ticket items.

Kit Darby told me.

 

[RORO]

It's typical.

Loves California, bemoans what it takes to get there.

So wanting a raise and expecting everyone else to bear the risk and do the heavy lifting?

View attachment 70557

As much as I despise 90+% of the things CC says, he's not exactly off base here. AS, HAL, and others have raised the bar, but it wasn't really eyebrow raising. UAL and AAL had AIPs in that timeframe that were swiftly shot down because they didn't meet pilot demand. DAL has now set a respectable bar, which we should all strive for and hope our peers gain as well. Personally, I'd be ecstatic if my airline got a Spirit style drop to zero type of system. Pattern bargaining kinda requires a little bit of looking inside each other's refrigerators uninvitedly so we can see what we didn't know we wanted. It's a little unbecoming imho when pilots look down on other pilots because of benefits somebody else did the hard work to get, kinda like CC'S 'I should get 16% 401k DC contributions and you should get 0 social security argument'.

It's easy and often deserved to criticize CC bc he says so many ridiculous things but not so much here. It's not wrong for him to want to benefit off the effects of pattern bargaining because, well, we all do.

 

[BobDDuck]

It's not wrong for him to want to benefit off the effects of pattern bargaining because, well, we all do.

Except snap ups aren't pattern bargaining.

A contract has many different parts, especially the mature ones. Over time they have evolved to meet the needs and culture (yes it's a thing) of that specific pilot group. You ( and Spirit) may want to drop to zero, but Southwest wants more premium to fly high. Delta wanted (and got) a higher DC, FedEx wants a DB that is more in line with recent earning potential. Alaska was worried about little jet scope where Delta was worried about big jet scope.

The way each property gets the things they want is by allocating the total costs the company is willing to bear into the areas that are important for that group. Historically this had worked cycle by cycle. Alaska got $306 (I think?) and then Jetblue got a bit more. Then Delta got a bunch more. Normally, Alaska would have to wait 4 years, which isn't too bad over a 25 year career, and then they would choose to put that value wherever they wanted to put it, whether it be in pay or QOL of retirement. Now, because of the now, now, now/me, me, me stuff (which turns out isn't just a millennial thing) they want their money right away, and build in the snap up.

That's great. I like money too, but the payrate spread of the majors and legacies has gone from 2.2x to 1.4x since 2004. And that's great, assuming every property wants the same things. And maybe they do, but if not, the snap ups seriously weaken a pilot group's bargaining power for the next cycle.

 

[RORO]

Except snap ups aren't pattern bargaining.

A contract has many different parts, especially the mature ones. Over time they have evolved to meet the needs and culture (yes it's a thing) of that specific pilot group. You ( and Spirit) may want to drop to zero, but Southwest wants more premium to fly high. Delta wanted (and got) a higher DC, FedEx wants a DB that is more in line with recent earning potential. Alaska was worried about little jet scope where Delta was worried about big jet scope.

The way each property gets the things they want is by allocating the total costs the company is willing to bear into the areas that are important for that group. Historically this had worked cycle by cycle. Alaska got $306 (I think?) and then Jetblue got a bit more. Then Delta got a bunch more. Normally, Alaska would have to wait 4 years, which isn't too bad over a 25 year career, and then they would choose to put that value wherever they wanted to put it, whether it be in pay or QOL of retirement. Now, because of the now, now, now/me, me, me stuff (which turns out isn't just a millennial thing) they want their money right away, and build in the snap up.

That's great. I like money too, but the payrate spread of the majors and legacies has gone from 2.2x to 1.4x since 2004. And that's great, assuming every property wants the same things. And maybe they do, but if not, the snap ups seriously weaken a pilot group's bargaining power for the next cycle.

Great point. I had not considered that. Thanks for pointing out

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Except snap ups aren't pattern bargaining.

A contract has many different parts, especially the mature ones. Over time they have evolved to meet the needs and culture (yes it's a thing) of that specific pilot group. You ( and Spirit) may want to drop to zero, but Southwest wants more premium to fly high. Delta wanted (and got) a higher DC, FedEx wants a DB that is more in line with recent earning potential. Alaska was worried about little jet scope where Delta was worried about big jet scope.

The way each property gets the things they want is by allocating the total costs the company is willing to bear into the areas that are important for that group. Historically this had worked cycle by cycle. Alaska got $306 (I think?) and then Jetblue got a bit more. Then Delta got a bunch more. Normally, Alaska would have to wait 4 years, which isn't too bad over a 25 year career, and then they would choose to put that value wherever they wanted to put it, whether it be in pay or QOL of retirement. Now, because of the now, now, now/me, me, me stuff (which turns out isn't just a millennial thing) they want their money right away, and build in the snap up.

That's great. I like money too, but the payrate spread of the majors and legacies has gone from 2.2x to 1.4x since 2004. And that's great, assuming every property wants the same things. And maybe they do, but if not, the snap ups seriously weaken a pilot group's bargaining power for the next cycle.

Fantastic post. Wish pretty much everyone on APC could read it.

 

[CFIT99]

Except snap ups aren't pattern bargaining.

A contract has many different parts, especially the mature ones. Over time they have evolved to meet the needs and culture (yes it's a thing) of that specific pilot group. You ( and Spirit) may want to drop to zero, but Southwest wants more premium to fly high. Delta wanted (and got) a higher DC, FedEx wants a DB that is more in line with recent earning potential. Alaska was worried about little jet scope where Delta was worried about big jet scope.

The way each property gets the things they want is by allocating the total costs the company is willing to bear into the areas that are important for that group. Historically this had worked cycle by cycle. Alaska got $306 (I think?) and then Jetblue got a bit more. Then Delta got a bunch more. Normally, Alaska would have to wait 4 years, which isn't too bad over a 25 year career, and then they would choose to put that value wherever they wanted to put it, whether it be in pay or QOL of retirement. Now, because of the now, now, now/me, me, me stuff (which turns out isn't just a millennial thing) they want their money right away, and build in the snap up.

That's great. I like money too, but the payrate spread of the majors and legacies has gone from 2.2x to 1.4x since 2004. And that's great, assuming every property wants the same things. And maybe they do, but if not, the snap ups seriously weaken a pilot group's bargaining power for the next cycle.

we are all now smarter for reading that...fantastic post and should be mandatory reading (before Florida bans it)

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

The tension between you two is quite…. sexual.

To be faaaaaiiiiiiirrrrrrr, it’s quite one sided. But don’t kink shame me for pointing out what a selfish and unaware person he is


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

To be faaaaaiiiiiiirrrrrrr, it’s quite one sided. But don’t kink shame me for pointing out what a selfish and unaware person he is


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, quite one sided: your side. After I let you go when you requested it.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Except snap ups aren't pattern bargaining.

A contract has many different parts, especially the mature ones. Over time they have evolved to meet the needs and culture (yes it's a thing) of that specific pilot group. You ( and Spirit) may want to drop to zero, but Southwest wants more premium to fly high. Delta wanted (and got) a higher DC, FedEx wants a DB that is more in line with recent earning potential. Alaska was worried about little jet scope where Delta was worried about big jet scope.

The way each property gets the things they want is by allocating the total costs the company is willing to bear into the areas that are important for that group. Historically this had worked cycle by cycle. Alaska got $306 (I think?) and then Jetblue got a bit more. Then Delta got a bunch more. Normally, Alaska would have to wait 4 years, which isn't too bad over a 25 year career, and then they would choose to put that value wherever they wanted to put it, whether it be in pay or QOL of retirement. Now, because of the now, now, now/me, me, me stuff (which turns out isn't just a millennial thing) they want their money right away, and build in the snap up.

That's great. I like money too, but the payrate spread of the majors and legacies has gone from 2.2x to 1.4x since 2004. And that's great, assuming every property wants the same things. And maybe they do, but if not, the snap ups seriously weaken a pilot group's bargaining power for the next cycle.

I get that, but AS did go first this round. Someone had to be. United had an AIP but it was turned down. AA had (I think?) some sorta/kinda deal that might have come out as an AIP (?) but it was shot down before it even got to that (?) level. As a result, Alaska was first and was the only major airline contract signed in 2022. THEN came Hawaiian, jetBlue, and Delta.

AS is $306 as of Sept 1, 2022 and will go to $318 on this Sept 1.

Sept 1 they'll take an average of whatever payrate the big 4 and jetBlue have. That will then eclipse the 318 coming on Sept 1. For that math to work, 4 of the 5 carriers have to get new contracts by then. Hence my cheering on for other airlines to get TAs signed. But I will lose no sleep if AS "only" gets $318 come Sept 1. The difference between 318 and 337 is what, at 5-6%? I'm sure I'll hurt egos and APC feelings, but I'm not gonna lose sleep over 5-6%.

Next year 2024 snap up will be huge and AS will go way above 331. The main reason being that AS has a 3 yr contract and DOS was 2022, and DOS+ 2 (final year) is 2024. For all the other major airlines, DOS is 2023 and DOS+1 will be 2024. Simple math says that the 2024 average of the big 5 will be huge.

 

[arkflyr]

SWAPA strike vote is in early. 97.8% of eligible pilots voted, 99.18% yes.

 

[Maurus]

Rumor has it that AA pilots have an AIP again.

 

[CFIT99]

Rumor has it that AA pilots have an AIP again.

Yes email from the Union confirms it, no details as of yet

 

[roundout]

Second time’s the try?

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Second time’s the try?

I’m not terribly optimistic. They were pretty far apart as early as a week ago on a lot of items.

 

[Ian_J]

Rumor I'm hearing is March 31 for United? I hope so!



Just need ONE more: AA or SW by Sept 1. Best case scenario is both! But a guy can dream right?

It turns out, they did not.

 

[CFIT99]

Now throw in the fact the NEA was cancelled by a judge….interesting timing

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Now throw in the fact the NEA was cancelled by a judge….interesting timing

Is that to get the JetBlue Spirit merger through?

 

[mikecweb]

Purple TA sent to the MEC. @Cherokee_Cruiser doesnt get a pay bump so carry on as usual.

 

[Maurus]

Another strike vote seems to have worked. Nice!

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Purple TA sent to the MEC. @Cherokee_Cruiser doesnt get a pay bump so carry on as usual.

Congrats on your TA