Is Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage Really Here?

[Hootie]

Remember, we're here to educate, Hoot! BTW, you still in PHX? When are we going shooting w/Walt 'n Dana?

True true, edjamacate. I just get crotchety when the whole "pilot shortage" topic comes up


You're gonna be gone soon aintcha? Im ALWAYS down for shooting, especially with you peeps! I've been brandishing the firearm here pretty regularly, so you just name the time and place. I got ammo!

 

[Hootie]

What's sad is that people will sign up for Skybus not because it'll be a great company with fantastic pay and benefits, just that they'll get transport category jet time in order to apply for a larger, higher-paying carrier.

But not realizing that that larger, higher-paying carrier's pilots are going to be brow beat to compete cost-wise with Skybus.

Exactly, they're basically killing the future they desire while they "think" they are on another stepping stone....

I understand why guys with 2000 hours pic at a regional go to Kallita or Gemini to get some heavy international time on there way to UPS. But the Skybus thing just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Tristan]

Down here in Australia the words on everyone's lips is "PILOT SHORTAGE". Experienced people currently working in the industry are all emphasizing the fact that in the next 5 to 10 years (probably sooner) this industry is going to be hit with the shortage. One of the major factors is that people aren't going through flying schools like they use to because it has become insanely expensive.

Flight training in Australia is probably 4 times as much than 10 years ago. I talk to airline pilots now, and they can't believe how much I'm paying for an hour in a Cessna 150. THe fact of the matter is, people aren't learning to fly because it's too expensive. Post 9/11 really jacked up the insurance costs, plus fuel prices yadda yadda. People aren't willing to fork out the huge amounts of cash and not being guarenteed a job at the end of it.

THe horizon is promising for up and coming pilots, as progression to bigger jobs will happen quciker. But pilot shortage or no pilot shortage, I'm still gonna do what I'm doing and folllow my dream.


Cheers

Tristan

 

[derg]

True true, edjamacate. I just get crotchety when the whole "pilot shortage" topic comes up


You're gonna be gone soon aintcha? Im ALWAYS down for shooting, especially with you peeps! I've been brandishing the firearm here pretty regularly, so you just name the time and place. I got ammo!

Hey, are you going to "New Mexico" any time? I thought about making the trip myself, but with the whole ER thing, I'd hate to have to remember the nitnoid rules in the EU. But man, it'd be great for commuting!

 

[Texasspilot]

hahah...google rocks...please notice the date.


TIME MAGAZINE ARITICLE REGARDING THE PILOT SHORTAGE!!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Pilot Shortage
Friday, Jun. 26, 1964
When the commercial jets flew into service, they made the airline pilot a surplus commodity. Because the airlines could carry many more people much faster, they needed smaller fleets of planes and fewer men to fly them. The lines laid off hundreds of pilots, demoted countless others to lower ranks in the cockpit. Now the situation has made a full turn; for the first time in the annals of peacetime aviation, there is a serious pilot shortage.

TWA says it "desperately needs pilots," recently hired 190 of them, its first newcomers since 1957. To sell flying careers to young men, it sends teams of pilots on speaking tours around the country. Pan Am hopes to hire up to 275 pilots this year. Eastern has been recruiting at Air Force bases, recently added 400. TWA, Eastern and United also have been advertising in the help-wanted columns, and United is busy at its large flight-training school at Denver, intends to break in more than 1,000 men over the next two years.

The pay is high, and can become skyhigh. Pilots who handle the large jets begin at $6,000 to $6,720 the first year, then soar to some $35,000, plus many benefits, by the ninth year—for 85 airborne hours a month.

Why, then, the shortage? For one thing, the surge in travel has led airlines to greatly expand their fleets; last week TWA announced the largest equipment order in its history, 33 jets totaling $162 million. The airlines have usually picked up many pilots from the ranks of young officers who quit the Air Force after a few years; but with the switch to missiles, the military is training fewer pilots. Simultaneously, many of the pioneering pilots of the 1920s and 1930s are reaching the compulsory retirement age of 60. The Air Line Pilots Association figures that 1,400 older commercial pilots—10% of the nation's total—will get their wings clipped within the next decade. Says A.L.P.A.'s magazine: "Only a national emergency requiring the training of thousands will create a surplus."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So how does this relate to today?
well Timmy heres how,

You see it takes 3 or 4 RJ's to do the work of 1 or 2 larger main line planes thus doubling the number of pilots required so we have a real need at the entry level but very little need at the higher level.

The great thing is this should continue until the lower level becomes the higher level and a new even lower level is formed and the old higher level is put out of business! Hurray its a great time in professional aviation!

 

[Berkut]

That old saying, modified for aviation use:

"The more things change, the more pay stays the same."

 

[Texasspilot]

"The more things change, the more pay stays the same."

ZING!

 

[flyover]

It would be nice in a perfect business/ethical world if this formula was the standard but its obvious in a free enterprise system that its not. There is a zillion ways to cook the books and if you think the airlines dont do this then lets go back to all the corporate scandals for the last 20 years. To a lay person labor cost appear to be the most simple way reduce cost but ask a CPA and Im sure we would be flying with more opinions than you know what.

My 1.99-3.99/4.23 x 7.29 = My profit

This is one of the canards I've heard often over the years. If you don't like the way business works as iftapplies to labor costs, just roll it all up into, "ah they're all crooks and cook the books, they always make money but just pretend like they don't so costs don't matter........"

While there are companies that do this, they are usually headed for the same fate as Enron. And almost all of the complicated accounting has to do with the tax code. I am definitely in favor of eliminating corporate taxes. Among the benefits for labor would be less money leaving the company and much more transparent book-keeping.

But in the case I mentioned the books were opened up to the union financial analysts, which were paid well to analyze them. As far as I heard the union was satisfied with the data they got access to.

"Bottom line" in any business world, ethical or not, you have to have more coming in than going out or eventually you will fail, cooked books or not. And BTW show me a "cooked books" scandal involving the major airlines, or 98% of American companies for that matter.

 

[Stone Cold]

Why not? Why must the shortage exist at the majors, but nowhere else, for it to be "real" in your eyes? Kind of arbitrary and/or silly IMO.

Do you really need me to answer this??? Let me know if you need me to explain it further, and I'll elaborate...I'm just hoping you're playing devil's advocate!!

 

[kellwolf]

So u telling me at the next contract negotiation that pilots will say to management, please pay us less!

People are willing to take lower pay if it helps them advance to their dream job faster. I doubt that pilots are saying hey UPS, pay me your first year rate my whole career I dont care i just love to fly big planes!

It's not the new hires that negotiate the pay rate, it's the pilots currently flying there (at least in a union environment). The trick is for the COMPANY to realize that to solve their staffing problem, agreeing to the higher pay rate the current pilots want will have a two fold effect:keep some of the guys they have from running to another regional AND attract more new blood. Unfortunately, most regional management see the pilot groups as more of a cost to be cut than an asset.

The problem we're facing here is we're flying on pay rates that were negotiated in 1999 that haven't been adjusted for inflation in several years. $21 an hour for a 1st year FO might have been okay in 99, but it sucks now. So, we're trying to raise the bar. Now that we're having trouble getting guys to come here and fly for that (even with the mins as low as they are), we might have some ammunition in our corner.

 

[Trip7]

The world's highest paying airlines such as UPS, Cathy Pacific etc will never have a pilot shortage because all the pilots will want to go there. UPS has 2,880 pilots, i'm pretty sure there will always be more than 2,880 pilots in the world. But if you combine all the airline pilot jobs available in the world, the number of qualified candidates, forecast retirement, throw in global expansion, then look at how people are going through pilot training, and you can figure out pretty easily there is a massive problem coming, if it is not already here. Either way its simple supply and demand economics. Somebody is going to have to pay up or they won't have any pilots to fly their planes, particularly the regional airlines.

I believe the #1 reason why not many people are becoming pilots anymore is cost. Most of the baby boomer pilots were military so they had there training paid. To go the civilian route is extremely expensive. 25k at least. Theres plenty of people who want to be a pilot but definitely don't have the means or desire to lay that amount of money out. Solution? I think regionals may have to fork out money to select people, and train them from 0 time to ready to be an FO, and do it quickly as possible through specialized training. If the regionals do such a program, they'll have thousands applying for the selection process. Potential pilots are out there, they just don't have the means to be pilots.

 

[Trip7]

It's not the new hires that negotiate the pay rate, it's the pilots currently flying there (at least in a union environment). The trick is for the COMPANY to realize that to solve their staffing problem, agreeing to the higher pay rate the current pilots want will have a two fold effect:keep some of the guys they have from running to another regional AND attract more new blood. Unfortunately, most regional management see the pilot groups as more of a cost to be cut than an asset.

The problem we're facing here is we're flying on pay rates that were negotiated in 1999 that haven't been adjusted for inflation in several years. $21 an hour for a 1st year FO might have been okay in 99, but it sucks now. So, we're trying to raise the bar. Now that we're having trouble getting guys to come here and fly for that (even with the mins as low as they are), we might have some ammunition in our corner.

Pinnacle is in the process of negotiating a new contract right? A pinnacle guy on ALPC was talking about it. Higher pay especially on the FO side. If so Pinnacle is about to move up on regional rankings

 

[surreal1221]

And the regional airlines lack the stability to have sufficient funds to train their own pilots from zero to hero.

 

[derg]

And the regional airlines lack the stability to have sufficient funds to train their own pilots from zero to hero.

An airline that flies biddable, subcontracted flying is probably not in a position to train applicants from zero to hero.

Unless, of course, you get stuck with a decade's long employment contract to repay the training and have to endure even lower pay rates to keep costs low and the carrier being able to competitively bid with others.

Eww, a new era of indentured servants!

 

[surreal1221]

Exactly - there is ZERO stability in the regional world for ANY US based regional to train their own flight crews.

 

[Hootie]

The world's highest paying airlines such as UPS, Cathy Pacific etc will never have a pilot shortage because all the pilots will want to go there.

Just FYI. Cathay Pacific pays a twenty year 747-400 captain the same what SWA pays a 12 year 737 driver.

 

[DE727UPS]

"The world's highest paying airlines such as UPS...will never have a pilot shortage..."

Does that mean I'll never have to fly with a 300 hour F/O? Can I get an Amen-ah.....

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Down here in Australia the words on everyone's lips is "PILOT SHORTAGE". Experienced people currently working in the industry are all emphasizing the fact that in the next 5 to 10 years (probably sooner) this industry is going to be hit with the shortage. One of the major factors is that people aren't going through flying schools like they use to because it has become insanely expensive.

Flight training in Australia is probably 4 times as much than 10 years ago. I talk to airline pilots now, and they can't believe how much I'm paying for an hour in a Cessna 150. THe fact of the matter is, people aren't learning to fly because it's too expensive. Post 9/11 really jacked up the insurance costs, plus fuel prices yadda yadda. People aren't willing to fork out the huge amounts of cash and not being guarenteed a job at the end of it.

THe horizon is promising for up and coming pilots, as progression to bigger jobs will happen quciker. But pilot shortage or no pilot shortage, I'm still gonna do what I'm doing and folllow my dream.


Cheers

Tristan

We have an australian lad on Jace and I's site. He stated that aviation is only for the rich in Australia.

He said a Baron at his school rents for $500 an hour!!!

 

[tonyw]

Raise freaking fares.

When you've got most planes going out with virtually no seats available, any other business would say, supply is limited, demand is high, I'm going to raise the price of my product.

Why airlines don't have the balls to do this -- yes, your Wal-Mart customers won't come back but screw 'em cause you ain't making money on them anyway -- I'll never know.

If Coach and Gucci and Louis Vuitton can sell a bag that costs them $50 to make for $800, why the bleep can't airlines do the same thing?

Sure, someone can go elsewhere, but screw 'em. Your goal as a business is to get PROFITABLE customers. If they ain't profitable, they ain't worth jacksquat and they divert your resources from PROFITABLE customers.

Screw 'em and let them go elsewhere.\

Raise fares to generate more revenue, and guess what? You can actually pay your employees well and they might actually not want to kick management's ass every single day they go to work.

You think that might help out?

 

[B767]

But how can airlines successfully raise fares when the market is so crowded? If every airline raised fares, sooner than later, one of the airlines (or multiple ones) will lower the fares again to attract more customers. The only way, at least how I see it, for airlines to raise fares and have them equal is for the airlines to be regulated again.

There's too much competition out there for one airline to raise its fares. And if they do, the paying customers wont fly that airline anymore until their fares are the same or lower than everyone elses.