Is Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage Really Here?

Why are we not addressing the larger issue here?

This country is seeing a huge recession in middle to upper-middle class wages. That includes, many of us here in the aviation sector. It's not just Pilots, or Doctors. It's everyone.

Wages are down everywhere. Productivity is up, and profits are also way up. The GAO says incomes have raised . . . but not where they needed to. The incomes of the top 3% of wage earners in this country went up. . . and who are they? CEOs, CFOs, and any other assortment of board members.

Day to day worker's pay is down, while the amount of time spent at work is up from the past 15 to 20 years - even more so if you go further back.

The problem isn't a shortage of anyone, it's a shortage of companies with good ethical practices and employee benefits - pay.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Primarily because cutting pay really doesn't do a thing for the bottom line when you're experiencing a revenue problem.



I agree, but you only get what you have negotiating leverage to attain. Can't tell the company "Hey! We'll fly a 100-seat jet for X" when they can subcontract the flying for X-Y% --



Factually incorrect. 1% is a very minor "restoration" and not a raise at all. The company has to reach certain metrics, but since I've thousands/month beneath what I used to earn, an extra $20/paycheck does not a victory make.
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If Delta was making less revenue and employing the same workforce they would have a much lower bottom line. Revenue-cost=income right? If you are experiencing a drastic drop in revenue(they were!) you got to cut cost or you might to go bankrupt, which they did anyway. CEOs and upper management do whatever they can to make that bottom line look pretty to attract stockholders, and their bonus checks:buck: As far as 100 seat planes, doesn't Delta have a scope in their contract? No more than 80 seats? It should stay that way and not move up, ever. That will protect the jobs of the pilots because if Delta had their way they would farm out all their flying. I hope next year's restoration is a lot better than $20 a paycheck! Finally, if they don't raise pay to at least pre 9/11 levels at least by the end of next year, the pilots should tell management to fly the planes themselves:)
 
I'm not quite sure if you're asking for an experienced opinion or not! :)
 
Stone Cold said:
having to recruit people into the regionals, whether it be the higher rung regionals, or not, does not count as a shortage!
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Why not? Why must the shortage exist at the majors, but nowhere else, for it to be "real" in your eyes? Kind of arbitrary and/or silly IMO.
 
This so called pilot shortage is just a way to spin what is really going on to attract more people to schools like Jet U.

The truth is that there is a shortage of people willing to enter the industry with the current compensation and training costs.

How many degree paths expect you to pay 30-40k on top of your college degree costs to enter the field only to be paid horribly for the first 3-4 years with minimal job security.

If doctors were paid so low in the first couple years it would be the same situation.

I believe a lot of people get into the industry because they are in love with the perception of being an Airline Pilot! Oh man... Being Rich, Traveling, the hot women whats not to like? Did I mention you get to fly a jet? :sarcasm:

You have the best office window in the world but as wheels up has in his signature a job is merely a means to an end.

This is why I think a lot of people are flat out crazy for racking up debt getting a degree in Aviation. You sure are taking a huge gamble.

I love to fly but I will only fly professionally if its in my best interest. This is a huge reason why I am leaving UND and going the FBO route. I feel like I am much more secure with a degree in Finance and going the FBO route. If I end up flying professionally, great. If I end up doing Finance for a living and owning my own plane, great. At least I will have options.
 
777forever said:
Finally, if they don't raise pay to at least pre 9/11 levels at least by the end of next year, the pilots should tell management to fly the planes themselves:)
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Doubt that'll happen because it's almost 100% guaranteed that management would be able to find someone who will fly for what they are paying (and possibly less).
 
Doug Taylor said:
Primarily because cutting pay really doesn't do a thing for the bottom line when you're experiencing a revenue problem.
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Just not really sure how this works. It's not complicated math. Inflow - outflow = profit (loss). All other things remaining the same, cutting costs has an immediate positive impact on the bottom line.

Even the analysis that ALPA did prior to the concession negotiations couldn't have been clearer. The weak revenue picture made cost cuts mandatory.

About the only unilateral action an airline can take that will have an immediate positive impact on yields is to volutarily go out of business.

(smiley face) (seriously)
 
flyover said:
Just not really sure how this works. It's not complicated math. Inflow - outflow = profit (loss). All other things remaining the same, cutting costs has an immediate positive impact on the bottom line.

Even the analysis that ALPA did prior to the concession negotiations couldn't have been clearer. The weak revenue picture made cost cuts mandatory.

About the only unilateral action an airline can take that will have an immediate positive impact on yields is to volutarily go out of business.

(smiley face) (seriously)
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It would be nice in a perfect business/ethical world if this formula was the standard but its obvious in a free enterprise system that its not. There is a zillion ways to cook the books and if you think the airlines dont do this then lets go back to all the corporate scandals for the last 20 years. To a lay person labor cost appear to be the most simple way reduce cost but ask a CPA and Im sure we would be flying with more opinions than you know what.

My 1.99-3.99/4.23 x 7.29 = My profit :)
 
B767 said:
Doubt that'll happen because it's almost 100% guaranteed that management would be able to find someone who will fly for what they are paying (and possibly less).
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This makes sense at the regional level where pilots are jumping at the opportunity to advance to a better paying job faster through a regional airline by accepting lower pay but it makes no sense to me that pilots at the legacies are willing to fly for less. The legacies are hiring experienced pilots that are older, more mature and probably have families. Not kids in their 20s with SJS who have no prior experience. I doubt that the legacy airlines will find people willing to do the job for less.
 
There is a slight shortage of pilots with pulses AND commercial certs ready to fly the mighty RJ. But in no way enough of a shortage to raise pay. And a big HELL NO to a shortage at the major level. Despite a 40 percent reduction in pay over the years, there a HOARDS of pilots wanting to scratch each others eyes out just to strap into an airbus.
 
Remember, we're here to educate, Hoot! BTW, you still in PHX? When are we going shooting w/Walt 'n Dana?
 
Hootie9750 said:
I WANT WHAT YOU"RE SMOKING!!
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So u telling me at the next contract negotiation that pilots will say to management, please pay us less!

People are willing to take lower pay if it helps them advance to their dream job faster. I doubt that pilots are saying hey UPS, pay me your first year rate my whole career I dont care i just love to fly big planes!
 
Well, we really don't tell the company "We want a massive raise" and we get it. It takes a lot of negotiations.

Here's something to watch for. If American is able to at least pull off a complete restoration (if not a raise, remember 'restoration' and 'raise' are mutually exclusive terms) of their previous pay rates, the passenger airline business is going to look a lot brighter.

If they're not able to negotiate much beyond a few percent, we're going to have a harder struggle when it's Southernjet's turn at the negotiating table.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Well, we really don't tell the company "We want a massive raise" and we get it. It takes a lot of negotiations.

Here's something to watch for. If American is able to at least pull off a complete restoration (if not a raise, remember 'restoration' and 'raise' are mutually exclusive terms) of their previous pay rates, the passenger airline business is going to look a lot brighter.

If they're not able to negotiate much beyond a few percent, we're going to have a harder struggle when it's Southernjet's turn at the negotiating table.
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You're talking about precedent and the airline term of "raising the house!"
 
777forever said:
So u telling me at the next contract negotiation that pilots will say to management, please pay us less!

People are willing to take lower pay if it helps them advance to their dream job faster. I doubt that pilots are saying hey UPS, pay me your first year rate my whole career I dont care i just love to fly big planes!
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No, you're definitely right, I guess what I was thinking about was places like Skybus that are starting up flying the Airbus for 65K a year. Very disturbing, yet people are lined up for it.
 
Hootie9750 said:
No, you're definitely right, I guess what I was thinking about was places like Skybus that are starting up flying the Airbus for 65K a year. Very disturbing, yet people are lined up for it.
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What's sad is that people will sign up for Skybus not because it'll be a great company with fantastic pay and benefits, just that they'll get transport category jet time in order to apply for a larger, higher-paying carrier.

But not realizing that that larger, higher-paying carrier's pilots are going to be brow beat to compete cost-wise with Skybus.
 
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