Is Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage Really Here?

I believe this is just the beginning of it in the US. Thats why only regionals are impacted. Eventually it will rise up to the majors in my opinion. Even with the retirement changed to age 65 it will only be a drop in bucket to fix the problem. Now from a global standpoint, India and China are in serious shortage. I believe the middle east is heading the same way the way those airlines (emirates, ethiad) are expanding. I think Typhoon pilot can chime in on this more.
 
Im doing a presentation for my Contemporary topics is Aviation class thats why im finding all this info here's the first,

http://www.jetwhine.com/?p=65

The Pilot Shortage Will Be Worse Than Anyone Believes

By Robert Mark on February 3rd, 2007

The infectious excitement surrounding the U.S. Sport Aviation Expo in Sebring Florida last month made it pretty clear that the Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) movement offers a far different air show experience than Air Venture, or Sun & Fun or most other local events. In a nice way, I was impressed with the ease of browsing at the 20 or 30 new aircraft on display.
But the exhilaration of seeing a full range of LSA airplanes, ones an average pilot can actually afford to own and fly, was overshadowed by another revelation I took away from Sebring. More sobering was the realization that everywhere, I ran into pilots and enthusiasts who were not only past 50 like me, but many easily past 60, 70 and beyond.
While the graying of the pilot world will hardly come as a profound shock to anyone, AOPA’s Kathleen Vascouselos said on a recent AvWeb podcast that the total pilot population drop is worse than anyone has even imagined, from 850,000 in the early 1990s to 597,000 today.
Couple those numbers with preponderance of old men and women I see around airports and shows and lots of aircraft-marketing people are probably having nightmares … lots and lots of nightmares, because in 10 to 15 years, a huge chunk of the nation’s pilot population is going to simply drop off the face of the Earth, never to return.
And we’ve trained few replacements. Plenty has been written about the ever-deepening pit both the airlines and business aviation will soon find themselves as the demand for pilots rapidly increases in the face of a diminishing supply. FLTops.com said last week that regional are already scrambling for pilots.
What should also be ruining the dreams of the marketing folks at Piper, Cessna, Cirrus and the LSA builders however, is that along with the retirement of a lot of professional pilots comes the elimination of the vast majority of recreational pilots - the people who used to fly for fun – and their need for new airplanes.
Certainly the Be-A-Pilot folks and AOPA have spent millions trying to entice more people to learn to fly, as have a few flight schools. Quite a few people have started the learning process, in fact. The problem is that few continue on to receive their license unless they see a serious business need to own and fly an airplane.
Funding has basically dwindled at Be-A-Pilot until it is now a mere shadow of its former self. And that diminishing supply of people who fly for fun spells big trouble for the future of GA in this country since we’ll not simply be retiring professional pilots soon, but recreational pilots as well. And honestly, the money is being cut off because the results have been questionable.
Most airport managers and Fixed Base Operators will tell you their marketing efforts are focused on turbine-powered airplanes because that’s where the profits are. But what they can’t tell you is where the pilots to fly those airplanes - any airplanes 10-15 years down the road - will come from if general aviation experiences the massive slowdown in operations the numbers seem to indicate. The FAA administrator is so focused on making user fees a reality, money she says they need to fund the next generation ATC system, that they have no ideas on how to encourage people to fly.
Let’s see, neither FBOs, airports or FAA seem to know how they’ll encourage people to learn to fly because they are to busy serving their customers today to realize that despite the significant steps up in aviation since 9/11, the industry is headed for a big whack in the side of the head soon. AOPA is trying, but they can’t do it alone.
Most airports and FBOs don’t see career education as their job. The FAA does, but only in a very broad sense. Could this all have anything to do with FAA dropping the promotion of aviation from their mission statement a decade ago? It just might. But now is not the time to point fingers of blame. We already do way too much of that in this country. Blame won’t solve the problem. Just as the Chinese economy has begun to compete with the U.S. for oil supplies, so too will they and India begin to compete with the U.S. for pilots.
So right now, we don’t know how we’re going to supply professional pilots over the next decade, much less the recreational ones to buy the airplanes our companies want to build. And no one seems to have figured out why flight training, the pilot base for all commercial and private pilot starts, is not simply faltering, but going comatose, in addition to the overall awful marketing efforts most flight schools produce that is. It is high time for a massive sit down between the parties - FAA, FBOs, flight schools, aircraft manufacturers, NBAA and airline representatives - to not just talk about pilot shortages, but to craft some new initiatives that will make a dent in the drain at the bottom of the bucket before it becomes and even bigger leak.
It’s time we call this what this looming pilot shortage what it truly is becoming … not a crisis, but a catastrophe. Maybe Be-A-Pilot was not as successful as some had hoped, but it was a start. If we don’t start developing Be-A-Pilot 2.0 and incorporate the good marketing efforts that worked with some new ideas to encourage people to fly for fun and for money, there isn’t going to be an aviation industry a decade or two down the road.
We can’t simply sit back, say we tried and hope someone else will fix the problem. Trust me, just like the user fee crisis, the pilot shortage is a problem from ALL of us. You are the “someone else” to help the industry survive … and if you still don’t think this is about survival of the industry, just archive this blog and stop back in ten years, maybe sooner to see how the future has unfolded.
 
http://www.my-india.net/forum1/messages/583.shtml

Shortage of Pilots in Indian Aviation Secotor
For several decades Indian Civil Aviation has suffered from flawed regulatory and operational policies that were designed solely  to keep competition away, The Govt did adopt an 'open sky' policy in 1991 but this proved to be relatively ineffective because the civil aviation environment then was not conducive for sustaining a high-quality competitive level. As a result, many startup airlines exited the industry within a short time, However, far-reaching reforms in the civil aviation sector aimed at making flying more affordable gathered momentum as 2004 came to a close, As the new Govt completed a year in office, a major change witnessed in this sector was the entry of Low-Cost Carriers (LCC), a feature unseen in the Indian aviation scene so far.

As a result, India's civil aviation has witnessed an unprecedented boom. Finally in 2005 the aviation sector was freed of bureaucratic  shackles and stifling Govt restrictions, the industry is now poised to expand by leaps and bounds. The recent Govt announcements regarding the much-awaited fleet acquisition programme of Indian public sector airlines as well as for modernisation of the infrastructure at Indian airports have given the process a further fillip.

At present, existing private domestic carriers as well as the new startups have a total of 337 aircraft on order, mostly Boeing and Airbus variants and some ATR and Embraer aircraft. Of these, as many as 156 were ordered at the Paris air show in June. IndiGo leads the list with a firm order for 100 A320s with deliveries slated for late 2006; between 15 and 19 aircraft in the first two years, and thereafter an average of one aircraft every month. Air Deccan is close behind with orders for 68 additional aircraft comprising 32 ATR 72/42s and 32 A320s. Kingfisher Airlines became the first Indian carrier to sign a firm contract with Airbus for five each of its newest aircraft, the A350-800 and its larg
, the A380 for intercontinental services as well as for five A330-200s for regional routes. Â Delivery of the A330s is due to begin in the third quarter of 2007, those of the double-deck A380s in 2010 whilst the A350s will arrive in 2012. A host of other new domestic carriers have also placed substantial orders with various manufacturers with most deliveries slated for late 2005 and spilling over into 2006.

At present, existing private domestic carriers as well as the new startups have a total of 337 aircraft on order, mostly Boeing and Airbus variants and some ATR and Embraer aircraft.

Not to be left behind, the national carriers have also planned substantial acquisitions. Air India has finalised a revised fleet plan through which its fleet size would be enhanced from the present level of 34 aircraft to 74 aircraft by the year 2012-13. This entails purchase of 50 aircraft from Boeing (8 Boeing 777-200LR, 15 Boeing 777-300ER and 27 Boeing 787s) at a projected cost of Rs 30000 crore (US$ 7 billion). Acquisition of 43 aircraft (19 Airbus A319, 4 Airbus A320 and 20 Airbus A321) along with related spares, spare engines, equipment, etc has since been approved for Indian Airlines at a total cost of Rs 9700 crore (US$2.2 billion).


It is anyone’s guess as to Human Resource requirements, especially pilots , airhostesses, flight attendants and other cabin crew, that are going to come up in the Aviation Sector. Demand is much above the number of people acquiring training for the same. Jet Airways along with Sahara India has about 47 percent share of the domestic aviation market, followed by Indian Airlines (28 per cent), Air Deccan (11 per cent), Kingfisher (6 per cent) and SpiceJet (5 per cent) as on October2006.

Jet Airways tops the list of domestic and national carrier operators with 8,168 flights operating till June 2005. Indian Airlines ranks second with 7,562 flights, followed by Sahara (3,225 flights), Air Deccan (2,889 flights), Spice Jet (483 flights) and Kingf
er Airlines (267 flights).

The sudden boom in Indian aviation has caught even the normally market savvy global aerospace manufacturers unawares. Recently, both Boeing and Airbus said they had underestimated Indian growth. This means global players are also coming into the scene. Â Â Â Â

It wasn't surprising since statistics compiled by Airbus Industrie showed that Indian carriers accounted for 327 out of the 2,140 firm orders for new aircraft that were placed with it and rival Boeing in 2005. This does not take into account the orders placed for smaller airplanes with other manufacturers like ATR and Dassault - which, too, are flooded with offers from private Indian carriers.

The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, Embraer, is bullish on the prospects in the Indian market. Their forecast is that between 2006 and 2010, the demand for 30-120-seater planes in India would be around 165, which is about 40 per cent of the demand of the Asia-Pacific region. The value of these aircraft would be around $4 billion. They feel that a majority of the aircraft required will be in the 61-120-seat capacity segment. 70 per cent of these would be required for market growth while there would be a small demand for replacement.

Indian Domestic Carriers have started attracting Foreign Pilots with lucrative offers. With the boom in Indian service sector and tourism industry, the impetus given by them to the aviation industry has made most domestic airlines in India with severe shortage of trained pilots, as they had to increase the sectors of their flights manifold overnight. This has changed the whole aviation job scenario in India. There are applications from pilots from across the world, primarily US, Europe and Australia and the pay packages are much more competitive now.
 
http://www.personneltoday.com/Artic...hortage-could-add-to-summer-holiday-woes.html

Pilot shortage could add to summer holiday woes

02 August 2005 14:45



Terror attacks in 2001 led to fewer would-be pilots joining training programmes
Some UK airlines are struggling to find air crew for summer holiday flights and have reported a shortage of trained pilots, according to recruitment specialists.
The combination of increased demand for air travel and low investment in pilot training in the aftermath of the US terror attacks in September 2001 is responsible for the shortage, technical and engineering recruitment firm Wynnwith said.
About 217 million passengers went through UK airports last year, an 8% rise on 2003, and long-haul passenger numbers exceeeded pre-9/11 numbers for the first time during 2004.
Noirin Guinan, chief executive of Wynnwith, said: “There are simply not enough qualified pilots at present and some airlines have immediate requirements that are unfulfilled because of the shortage.
“The number of airlines coming to us to help them has increased hugely.”
Long-term growth in passenger numbers is not forecast to slow significantly, despite concerns about security. Tourist numbers rose following the Madrid attacks and London is expected to prove just as resilient.
“Airlines need to step up pilot training programmes in anticipation of even greater passenger volumes next year,” Guinan said.
 
not a primary source but an interesting post on pprune about 135 flying

135 Operators are in serious danger. I do not give them many more years in operation. Not many 135 operators will be able to stay in business.

Really? Yes and that because of the Pilot shortage that is already a reality. Desperate pilots taking any kind of job for the hours or as a step into experience necessary for applying to the regionals are soon history.

Who will accept what the small 135 night cargo companies have to offer? flying all night in old equipment freezing like hell, loading and unloading their airplanes many times per night and being forced to fly in any kind of weather, accepting mechanical problems in the name of operational interest? and that being paid 1700 to at the most 3000 per month before tax?

The regionals are taking every trainable pilot available in the market and we have only seen the start. The Regionals needs 7000 to 10000 new pilots during 2007. The big airlines will be seriously start hiring at the end of 2007 and even more during 2008 taking most of the new pilots from the US regionals and they will need even more pilots. The international market need for US pilots mainly in Asia (China, etc) will increase dramatically.

Who will want to fly for the 135 operator? All night? for what? for nothing?

Corporate and Charter operators will also increase the demand for pilots. The 135 operators that will survive are the ones that will be able to increase the salaries seriously and will have to treat their pilots like kings to make them stay. Who will financially be able to do that? The days of the night working slaves will soon be over..............................
 
The minimums to fly an RJ or a turboprop these days are insanely low. It's not safe in my opinion but I digress.

SkyWest executives say the airline has not lowered its hiring benchmarks. Its applicants need 1,000 hours of flying time, including 100 hours piloting multi-engine airplanes in order to get a job interview, and its typical candidate has 1,800 hours of experience. The Federal Aviation Administration requires 250 hours of flight time for a commercial license.

"Anything above and beyond what is stated [in FAA rules] is a business decision on the part of the airline," FAA spokesman Les Dorr said.

We might get to a point where after a pilot finishes his Commercial Multi checkride, he heads to regional groundschool the next day. The airlines may not only have to pay more salary to the pilot, but incur more training costs for a better training program due to low time pilots.

Thats not a good sign for future CFI supply. I know for sure there is a shortage of CFIs already. My university is having serious attrition problems. Lost 3 instructors last month alone. Not good when there's only 10. Right now there is only one instructor able to take CFI trainees.
 
What do you think would happen to UPS if Amflight shut down? I can tell you what, they'd stop delivering boxes to smaller communities in the western part of this country.

UPS couldn't survive if it lost Amflight's lift, much in the same way that FedEx couldn't continue to operate if it lost it's feeders.

135 is here to stay, though anybody in the 135 industry knows that the traditional role of 135 companies, to haul checks at night, is dispearing fast. That's not even the majority of our business these days.
 
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-1776427,prtpage-1.cms

Pilot shortage threatens to ground aviation sector
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PTI
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[ MONDAY, MARCH 19, 2007 02:54:47 AM]

NEW DELHI: The Indian aviation industry is besieged with a crippling problem of acute shortage of pilots which could jeopardise its multi-million dollar expansion programmes.

“The total number of additional aircraft in the next five years is estimated at 500, for which an additional 5,000 pilots would be required,” aviation ministry sources told PTI.

Currently, 2,940 pilots are employed against the requirement of 3,160 pilots, leaving a shortfall of around 7%, they added.

They cited that though Indian Airlines has no shortage of pilots, Air India has a shortfall of 118 pilots, which galvanised the government to conditionally increase the maximum age of the pilots from 58 to 65 years.

To increase the number of pilots, the government was planning to hike seats in the Indira Gandhi Rashtriya Uraan Academy to 100 from 40, sources said.

Besides, the government was finalising plans to set up a world-class training academy at Gondia in Maharashtra while permitting Air India to recruit graduates in science and engineering as cadet pilots.

There are 791 trainee pilots working with India’s various airlines, such as Air India, which has 690 pilots including those on contract, they added.
 
What do you think would happen to UPS if Amflight shut down? I can tell you what, they'd stop delivering boxes to smaller communities in the western part of this country.

UPS couldn't survive if it lost Amflight's lift, much in the same way that FedEx couldn't continue to operate if it lost it's feeders.

135 is here to stay, though anybody in the 135 industry knows that the traditional role of 135 companies, to haul checks at night, is dispearing fast. That's not even the majority of our business these days.

The 135 operators that will survive are the ones that will be able to increase the salaries seriously and will have to treat their pilots like kings to make them stay. Who will financially be able to do that? The days of the night working slaves will soon be over..............................
 
Well one thing is for sure, I know from experience there are all kinds of airline guys out there including mechanics and flight attendants saying to their sons and daughters, "Don't do ANYTHING with the airlines. It is not worth it anymore." Heh. I'm one of them that has been told... So I'm really thinking of just doing one of the other sectors of fixed wing turbine out there once I get to that point or possibly going to a foreign airline if I can...
 
http://www.china.org.cn/english/photo/188306.htm

More Planes But Few Pilots Darken the Skies

More and more Chinese people can afford a private plane, given its moderate 2 million yuan price tag, close to that of a limousine. An insider of aviation industry told the press at the Sixth China Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai, which concluded on November 5. It is estimated that about 1,000 private plane are needed every year.
369639.jpg

Under the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), China will gradually open its airspace below 600 meters in five to ten years, creating a huge market for general planes, and private planes in particular, said Wang Yijun, the general manager of marketing of Beijing PanAm International Aviation Academy.
"The DA 40, produced by Diamond Aircraft, is priced at around 2 million yuan, as much as a limousine," Wang added. Based on this equation, Diamond Aircraft is optimistic about China's private plane market.
As the world's second largest general plane manufacturer, Diamond Aircraft has revealed its plan to produce its best selling planes in China. Shandong Bin Ao Aircraft Industries Co., a joint venture set up by Diamond Aircraft in east China's Shandong Province, is going to mass-produce the DA40 since late November. The first producing scale stands at 500 planes, 200 of which will be on sale in European and American markets. Meanwhile, the joint venture will undertake orders from China as well as other Asian and Pacific countries. Diamond Aircraft also plans to produce another plane -- the DA42 -- in Shandong.
At the air show, some plane manufacturers pointed out that a lack of pilots has created a bottleneck in China's civil aviation development. "A shortage of pilots has impeded the exploitation of sub-airlines in China," said Wang Jialin, the sales manager of Bombardier Regional Aircraft (Greater China).
Li Zhiyun, director of Beijing PanAm International Aviation Academy, views the situation of pilot shortage as a business opportunity, mentioning that the current civil aviation market needs 2,500 pilots every year, compared to only 1,500 pilots graduating annually from PanAm and the Civil Aviation Flight University of China (CAFUC).
The shortage has spurred the increase of pilot training schools. Apart from PanAm, there are two to three similar pilot training schools preparing to open.
"The training fee is 600,000 yuan in our school. Upon graduation, trainees will receive the fundamental business flight license," said Wang Yijun. He stated that the training school admits two types of trainees. Usually, airline companies entrust the school to train pilots, which is carried out under an agreement signed by company, school and trainee. They will then leave the school as elementary pilots and receive further training in the company. The other type consists of private pilots. Anybody aged between 18 and 60 can apply for flight training in the school as long as they reach the physical standard set by the CAAC. "Of course, private pilots account for quite a small percentage currently, but I am sure the number will increase rapidly," said Wang confidently.
(Chinanews.com, translated by Huang Shan for China.org.cn, November 9, 2006)
 
The majors *do not* have anything close to a realistic shortage.

If you want a flood of applicants, look at what the military is paying pilots in year 15, double that figure and add a pension, and you'll have a flood of college educated pilots with heavy and/or fighter experience knocking down your door.

I'm serious! ;)
 
One of the sad truths is the flight benefits. They used to be a killer perk, but with oversold flights to the point PAYING passengers are getting bumped, it's almost a useless benefit. In a way, that cuts the pay to airline employees, if you consider benefits as a compensation package as a whole.

I agree there is a shortage of QUALIFIED applicants. But, you don't see hospitals lowering their minimums to get doctors do you? No, they increase salaries and benefits in order to attract talent. Same goes with Fortune 500 companies. Having trouble getting a CEO? Do you a) offer a better benefits and compensation package to woo the guy away from where he is or b) offer the job to a MBA right out of college? Pilots are our own worst enemies. For every guy that says "I'm not going to fly for peanuts" there are four guys jumping up and down saying "Hire me! Hire me! I'll fly the jet!"
 
I believe this is just the beginning of it in the US. Thats why only regionals are impacted. Eventually it will rise up to the majors in my opinion. Even with the retirement changed to age 65 it will only be a drop in bucket to fix the problem. Now from a global standpoint, India and China are in serious shortage. I believe the middle east is heading the same way the way those airlines (emirates, ethiad) are expanding. I think Typhoon pilot can chime in on this more.

Marcus-

I understand why you would be led to believe that there is a real pilot shortage being created however the shortage is not that there are a lack of willing and able applicants to legacy airlines. There are people lined up at the regional carriers who are eagerly awaiting a phone call that is slow to come. The legacy carriers, freight haulers, and international carriers do not have a shortage of applicants that is why they can afford to be very selective. The shortage will not be at the legacy carriers it will be at the regional carriers. The reason the regionals are short is because no one has any incentive to pursue it because the pay out is so low. Will regional pay increase as a result, probably slightly. However the legacy carriers still will not benefit because regional pilots still want to go to a legacy and provide a steady stream of applications.
 
But, you don't see hospitals lowering their minimums to get doctors do you? No, they increase salaries and benefits in order to attract talent.

Not to be rude but this is a pretty bad example. Doctors are in a similar situation as pilots. Their pay is lower and they're working twice as much to make up for it compared to what they once did. I'm not saying that they are not well paid just not paid what they once were. Of course ask Bill at the check in counter in EWR and he'll tell you the same about airline pilots. "Cause I ain't makin no $120k/yr to push buttons and travel around 3 days a week."
 
The airlines will raise pay I have no doubts about that. I couldn't understand all the complaints about paycuts etc when the legacies where losing a truckload of money every year. There is no reason now that the airlines are getting back on their feet that pay should not be raised to at least the pre-9/11 rates. No reason at all. . ALPC said Delta pilots got a pay raise Jan 2007 and every year after that. I think you are right that the top US carriers such as UPS,Delta etc there will never be a pilot shortage but globally there is no doubt about it. I believe pay will be raised where the average legacy contract will be similiar to the current UPS contract.
 
The airlines will raise pay I have no doubts about that. I couldn't understand all the complaints about paycuts etc when the legacies where losing a truckload of money every year.

Primarily because cutting pay really doesn't do a thing for the bottom line when you're experiencing a revenue problem. The Delta pilots gave up a crapload of pay back in 2004, the company rejoiced because it lowered costs, but didn't do jack to solve it's revenue problem -- a year later they were in BK court.

There is no reason now that the airlines are getting back on their feet that pay should not be raised to at least the pre-9/11 rates. No reason at all.

I agree, but you only get what you have negotiating leverage to attain. Can't tell the company "Hey! We'll fly a 100-seat jet for X" when they can subcontract the flying for X-Y% -- Everyone hated "scope" pre 2005, but more guys are saying "those planes belong at a mainline carrier at mainline pay/rules" than are saying "Dude, it'd be SWEET if (regional) got 73's and 75's!"

. ALPC said Delta pilots got a pay raise Jan 2007 and every year after that.

Factually incorrect.

1% is a very minor "restoration" and not a raise at all. The company has to reach certain metrics, but since I've thousands/month beneath what I used to earn, an extra $20/paycheck does not a victory make.

It's sad to say, but this is the only industry that when it self-manufactures a staffing shortage, instead of increasing pay and benefits, it decreases minimum qualifications. Once we hit rock bottom, require only a fresh CMEL with 200 hours (part 141) and experience a string of high profile accidents with casualties, it's largely going to be more of the same.

I'm an optimist, we're going to claw our way out of the doldrums, but don't confuse what "should" happen with the struggle and negotiations capital it's going to take to regain lost ground. Remember, it's corporate America. Next time another pilot group asks for a pay restoration, closely monitor what the people in control of capital say on Wall Street.

Professional avaition takes more than a desire to fly. It takes that desire to fly, dedication and the willingness to fight to the bone to improve working conditions industry-wide.
 
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