Richman
JC’s Resident Curmudgeon
Except for a very brief time period in 2006 to about 2008 (and then again right before the ATP rule went in to place), nobody was getting hired with less than 1000 hours, and when time were tough, nobody was going to the "commuters" with less 3000.
Agreed.
There are several, ugly, intertwined factors at play here:
1) The collapse of pay, benefits and working conditions at the major airlines: There was none of this talk prior to the major contract resets of mid-naughties. It was only then, after the career was worth significantly less that the pipeline imploded on itself. The bankruptcies were in 2004-06, and sure enough, it was just after that the regional pipeline started to eat itself. You need to have a golden ring for people to get involved, and that went away.
What Bob said is absolutely correct. Only during times of extreme turnover did the commuters ever dip down to 1,000/100. We're talking every major pax and cargo airline hiring (and remember, there were more of them) and some commuters seeing close to 100% turnover on an annual basis. This during a time when most training was done in the aircraft, and commuters/regionals didn't have the relatively more robust infrastructure they do today. Yet the minimums remained stubbornly high, despite the lack of the ATP rule, and no one was bitching about it.
During lean times, it wasn't uncommon to see the "A" regionals like Eagle, Henson or Comair require 3,500/1000.
2) The collapse of general aviation. This is worthy of a whole separate conversation, but suffice to say, in 1990, it cost $15,000, all in (including room and board) to go zero to hero (CFI/CFII/MEI). With inflation, that's about $35k. Expensive, but doable. The actual cost today is touching $100k. Less if you work the system, but not less in a meaningful fashion.
3) Societal changes. Let's face it, flying for the airlines can be a drag. Cut your hair, clean shaven, don't do drugs, watch the meds you're on, don't be an ass on social media and plan on working most holidays and weekends to start. That's fairly incompatible for the yuuts of today. Even if you're down with most of the program, watching your friends YOLOing every night and weekend on Tak-Tik, MyFace and Snapbook while you're stuck in Muncie has to have some friction in it.
4) Pull back in the military. Nuff said, but let's recall as late as the 1980's the major airlines (and remember, there were more then) got 80%+ of their candidates from the military. These days it's barely 25%.
The only part of this equation that is somewhat controllable is the pay piece. The airlines, for nearly a century, have benefitted from an extremely strong and capable cadre of experienced, self-funded pilots. They've literally bled it dry, while crapping on the system that provided it.
That bill has now come due.