Furlough Estimates

“I believe in science, data, facts”

“check out the CDC data, it looks better than we thought”

“no man, international data. Not the bs from here.”

“how about the numbers from China now?”

“f them. They’s liars. The Europe stuff”

“like the dude that said 2.5 million dead Americans? That Europe stuff?”

“HEY MAN! YOU KNOW THIS IS ALL BECAUSE TRUMP RIGHT?”


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My rude math:
Some here said 70% infection rate.
35% a symptomatic
65% symptomatic
328,500,000 us pop
.26 CFR

~388,600 deaths IF 70% of the us pop gets it.
 
AAPalmTree said:
How bout some substance?
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Sure.

You don't know what you're actually looking at.

This is the scientific process. The data points you're looking at are too small to make much sense out of right now, and a look back of the aggregate will tell you a lot more.

This is like making sausage; you don't want to MAKE sausage, and you sure as hell don't want to WATCH it being made, you want to EAT sausage. You want to read a nice pretty little study that looked at the data from the last year, where a bunch of scientists have poured over the analysis.

What you're seeing now is like watching a Flight Radar 24 feed in real time and taking bets on whether someone is about to crash. This doesn't work that way. That CDC data you're looking at is a best guess for today, and to be honest I wish they wouldn't publish it, because people are going to take too much out of what they see at the exact moment.
 
jtrain609 said:
Sure.

You don't know what you're actually looking at.

This is the scientific process. The data points you're looking at are too small to make much sense out of right now, and a look back of the aggregate will tell you a lot more.

This is like making sausage; you don't want to MAKE sausage, and you sure as hell don't want to WATCH it being made, you want to EAT sausage. You want to read a nice pretty little study that looked at the data from the last year, where a bunch of scientists have poured over the analysis.

What you're seeing now is like watching a Flight Radar 24 feed in real time and taking bets on whether someone is about to crash. This doesn't work that way. That CDC data you're looking at is a best guess for today, and to be honest I wish they wouldn't publish it, because people are going to take too much out of what they see at the exact moment.
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I’ll ask you what you asked me...
Lay it out for us.
 
QXDX said:
Because the rest of the world is wrong. :stir:

I say that only half-joking. Why do you automatically assume the CDC numbers are wrong? Or, more accurately, why do you put so much faith in some other government's figures? What is it with this tendency of Americans to assume that other countries act only selflessly, while we only act selfishly?
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I don’t assume they’re wrong. But the analysis of antibody tests from NY State, Spain, and at least one German town (which were supposed to show us that everyone has already had it and we’re done with it) points to not just a little higher, but 3-4x higher than their numbers, you gotta wonder why.
 
AAPalmTree said:
SEA-ORD
1st class last minute 1,800RT
Part 135 $35,00-40,000

Nope. if you can afford rolling like that, you already are.
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135 business has picked up tremendously. I heard that Flexjet, for instance, initially cut pay and schedules. They are planning to go back to regular schedules and pay with reimbursement for cut wages within a week or so. Their pilots are back flying 4 and 5 legs a day. XOJET never cut pay or schedules and are also flying 4 to 5 legs a day. I think a lot of the wealthier portions of society are inching closer and closer to flying private jets to avoid having to mingle with the common folk.

With that said, there have been plenty of layoffs on the private side. It's sort of at a moment of finding out who can really afford to own a private jet compared to those that were just getting by with chartering their jet out to offset cost a little bit.
 
Antibody tests from the US, where we are, indicate it's milder than even the CDC numbers. Experts around the world, like the professor of epidemiology at Oxford seem to agree. I'm going to stick with science data and experts. Your panic and fear have achieved nothing but cause deaths and economic distraction. 2.1 Million to go, and you should be ashamed of yourselves.
 
AAPalmTree said:
You’ve really said nothing other than “I don’t know.” A few pages ago you suggested the entire US population would catch this in your figures. I’m no wiz kid but, wow.
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If that's what you got out of what I said, then go back to my first statement: you've never done anything but fly airplanes, have you.
 
NickH said:
Antibody tests from the US, where we are, indicate it's milder than even the CDC numbers. Experts around the world, like the professor of epidemiology at Oxford seem to agree. I'm going to stick with science data and experts. Your panic and fear have achieved nothing but cause deaths and economic distraction. 2.1 Million to go, and you should be ashamed of yourselves.
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You do realize that 2 million number was on the extreme high end with a do nothing approach right? The model had a lot of variance, but it's asinine to continue to hang on to the extreme end to support your views.
 
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Screaming_Emu said:
You’re beating the hell out of that dead horse, eh?
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Oh come on. I'm a big Rick and Morty fan. Plus what's not to like about the looming collapse of our incredibly fragile financial system, years of unemployment, losing everything and when it's all done waiting in a line for bread handouts because you have nothing left.

FUN!
 
NickH said:
Antibody tests from the US, where we are, indicate it's milder than even the CDC numbers. Experts around the world, like the professor of epidemiology at Oxford seem to agree. I'm going to stick with science data and experts. Your panic and fear have achieved nothing but cause deaths and economic distraction. 2.1 Million to go, and you should be ashamed of yourselves.
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I don’t think the FDA has a warm fuzzy about the tests, yet. Several were recently removed from the Emergency Use Authorization.

“Our action today is an important step the agency has taken to ensure that Americans have access to trustworthy tests,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D.
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www.fda.gov

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Provides Promised Transparency for Antibody Tests

The FDA has posted a list of antibody tests that are no longer being offered under the March 16, 2020 Policy, which is sometimes called the “notification list.”
www.fda.gov www.fda.gov
 
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