Furlough Estimates

ZapBrannigan said:
I think your numbers are low based upon fleets retired and number of airplanes parked. Gut feeling? Or are you basing them on anything in particular? After 9/11 the % was higher than 10-15% and this is far worse (so far)


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Did you really just ask if those numbers were a gut feeling or not? He posted wild guesses for a dozen airlines and he’s probably never worked at 11 of those 12.
 
Typhoonpilot's numbers actually sound pretty reasonable to me. I've been through two furloughs at my regional airline, one after 9/11 and one during the 2009-2011 recession. Here's a quick summary of the numbers at my regional:

Post 9/11: About 8% of the seniority list furloughed, maximum furlough duration was about five months.

Recession: About 15% furloughed. Maximum furlough duration was two years. If I recall correctly, we went from about 780 pilots in 2008 to a low of 560 pilots (in 2011, I think). This represents a total loss of about 27% of our seniority list. We had about a hundred pilots out on furlough, plus eighty or ninety on voluntary or medical leave, and a few people that retired or quit.

In addition to the pilots furloughed during the recession, we also had about 40-50 downgrades. We did NOT have any downgrades during the 9/11 furloughs.

In general, management will try to encourage as many people as possible to take time off or voluntary leave prior to announcing furloughs. This can significantly reduce the number of pilots involuntarily furloughed.

Edit: The real "wild card" here is whether we have another significant coronavirus outbreak in the fall. If this happens, all bets are off.
 
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That's not an apples to apples compare. Post 9/11 the regionals grew at the expense of mainline. As the narrowbody fleets we're parked (DC9, F28, F100, 737-200) the RJs grew like crazy. So while regionals may have furloughed for a few months, they roared back.

The majors furloughed for several years (7 for me) made worse by the shift to age 65 retirement. I was 29% from the bottom on 9/10/01

Of course this time both the regionals and mainline carriers are hurting, so I think it's less likely that one will thrive at the benefit of the other again.

A 10% reduction at an airline the size of mine is less than 1000 pilots - or around 70 airplanes. We have 400 parked right now.

Of course no telling how many will take early outs (details aren't even available for another week) but I hope it's similar to what AA has been able to achieve.


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Furloughed for SEVEN years? Yikes!!!

Due to international travel restrictions, I expect that United, American, and Delta will be hurt the worst. Alaska and Southwest may recover somewhat more quickly, due to the fact that most of their travel is limited to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Advice for new hires: Ignore anything you hear from management for a few months. The initial furlough estimates will sound scary. You should understand that this is a tactic used by management to "encourage" as many people as possible to take early retirement or a voluntary leave. In the case of the regional that I work for, neither the furlough after 9/11 or the furloughs in 2009-2011 went as "deep" as initially forecast.

I think that pilots just starting their job at an airline are going to have an AWESOME career. But, recognize that furloughs and downturns may be part of that career. Work out a strategy to survive the bad times, and enjoy the good times.
 
typhoonpilot said:
I'll play, these are the numbers to start:


Delta 15%
United 20%
AA 15%
SWA 10%
Spirit 15%
Allegiant 15%
Alaska 15%
JetBlue 15%
Fedex 0
UPS 0
Atlas 0
Kalitta 0

Numerous regionals will furlough, some have already gone out of business.
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I’d take spirits number and bump it to 20%. That’s based off the fact we have somewhere around 25 older planes we own that I suspect we will park (they actually alluded to it in the investor call) which would be about 20% of pilots(ish).


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I think people will get back on airplanes no problem with some of the fares I'm seeing. The question is, can the airlines break even with $80 fares from SEA to ORD? The whole middle seat empty thing is a joke and won't last long. I think the mask thing is here for a while and will make people feel safe to fly. As far as business travel and first class. The experience has defiantly degraded. No meals, just packaged snacks. Less attentive and interested FA's (especially on my last AS flight), moral is surely very low. I could see the higher end folks who were on the cusp as to traveling airlines first class or being able to go 135, choosing to not fly airlines. That's still way over my pay grade but surly all the stuff going on now will put some people of high means into 135 or 91.
 
DE727UPS said:
I could see the higher end folks who were on the cusp as to traveling airlines first class or being able to go 135, choosing to not fly airlines.
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SEA-ORD
1st class last minute 1,800RT
Part 135 $35,00-40,000

Nope. if you can afford rolling like that, you already are.
 
QXDX said:
People are not going to get on airplanes in large numbers until they think it is safe to do so. So rather than squabbling among ourselves, or lambasting our respective employers, I suggest it might be more worthwhile to urge our professional and trade groups to collaborate in a joint campaign to get accurate information to our would-be customers. The media and the government can't seem to do it.
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The CDC recently came out with updated estimates which put the overall mortality rate at 0.26%. Not a single headline from mainstream media. Unfortunately this crisis will not end until the media decides it will end. Fear sells and they are making a killing with their tabloid style panic porn coverage.
 
Scarebus said:
The CDC recently came out with updated estimates which put the overall mortality rate at 0.26%. Not a single headline from mainstream media. Unfortunately this crisis will not end until the media decides it will end. Fear sells and they are making a killing with their tabloid style panic porn coverage.
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Do you have a link?

Edit: I see it was AAPalmtrees link. I think the problem there is that it’s not a press release, and there is a bunch of stuff that’s written above a 7th grade level before you get to the big “AHA!” of the page. Also, as many stated this won’t be over until mass media winds it down. The only thing I can do about that is stop clicking on fear-porn headlines. It’s something I guess.


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AAPalmTree said:
I wonder if @SteveC agrees?
Or @Roger Roger
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It’s no matter. 15-30% of pilots will be in the garlic bread line by the end of the year. Great Depression level economic catastrophe. The dollar weakened possibly irreparably due to the stimulus combined with a massive debt load. Countless lives ruined from domestic violence. A years worth of suicide in a few months. I don’t think winning an online argument can make up for that.

We fundamentally destroyed our society in a few short months. I don’t see anything coming back to normal. Not for years at least.


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BEEF SUPREME said:
It’s no matter. 15-30% of pilots will be in the garlic bread line by the end of the year. Great Depression level economic catastrophe. The dollar weakened possibly irreparably due to the stimulus combined with a massive debt load. Countless lives ruined from domestic violence. A years worth of suicide in a few months. I don’t think winning an online argument can make up for that.

We fundamentally destroyed our society in a few short months. I don’t see anything coming back to normal. Not for years at least.


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I don’t think it will be that bad. I have been amazed at the sociological display though.
 
Roger Roger said:
CDC numbers are inconsistent with everyone else in the world. Wonder why that might be?
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