Furlough Estimates

arkflyr said:
I think I’ve said it here before but that forum and the C2020 fb page are nothing more than a circular firing squad with the same dozen and a half people ranting away.
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Im not even attempting to be part of the C2020 FB page. Jesus. Some of the things people say... I can't even.
 
SteveC said:
You lost me. People misunderstanding the situation and mistakenly avoiding treatment that could save their lives is a correctable situation. It is tragic that it happens, but it can be fixed. Not sure why that should scare me?
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The health crisis from the lockdowns goes well beyond people misunderstanding the situation. "Elective" procedures included tumor removal and bypass surgery. Add in people who aren't being screened and this could turn very ugly very quickly. From the Forbes article “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”

www.forbes.com

600 Physicians Say Lockdowns Are A ‘Mass Casualty Incident’

“It is impossible to overstate the short, medium, and long-term harm to people’s health with a continued shutdown…from missed cancer diagnoses to untreated heart attacks and strokes to increased risks of suicides,” physicians warn.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com



SteveC said:
Ok, I went ahead and did some (admittedly) cursory reading so I could ”do the math”. You didn’t give enough information.

[One thing that caught my eye while reading is that the jump in suicide rates are seen in unemployed people in a longer term timetable, like 3 to 5 years, so an immediate jump is improbable at best. This would, of course, bring into the discussion a “how long will this economic impact last” factor. I am sure that we have differing opinions on that, so to keep ”the math” simple I will stipulate that the impact is felt immediately rather than go down the other rabbit hole. In other words, the increase in suicide rate among unemployed will be considered to be immediate rather than incrementally applied.]

Suicide rates in the U.S. have been creeping up over the years - as of a couple of years ago was around 14 per 100,000 (was closer to 10 per hundred-K a decade prior). I’ll use 15/100,000 as baseline. I’ll use a doubling of the suicide rate for the unemployed. For round numbers, I’ll use 50,000,000 additional unemployed workers.

Doubling the suicide rate means that there would be an additional 15/100,000 amongst the unemployed.

(15/100,000) * 50,000,000 = 7,500 additional deaths per year.

How did I do?
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“I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” Yes, the National Review obviously has a conservative slant, but numbers are numbers. The Forbes article I linked above also says “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%.”

 
SrFnFly227 said:
The health crisis from the lockdowns goes well beyond people misunderstanding the situation. "Elective" procedures included tumor removal and bypass surgery. Add in people who aren't being screened and this could turn very ugly very quickly. From the Forbes article “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”

www.forbes.com

600 Physicians Say Lockdowns Are A ‘Mass Casualty Incident’

“It is impossible to overstate the short, medium, and long-term harm to people’s health with a continued shutdown…from missed cancer diagnoses to untreated heart attacks and strokes to increased risks of suicides,” physicians warn.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com





“I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” Yes, the National Review obviously has a conservative slant, but numbers are numbers. The Forbes article I linked above also says “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%.”

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I should have asked you the original question apparently instead of Todd (post #1385). All I got from him was some unattributed generalizations and a “do the math” attitude/platitude.
 
SteveC said:
I should have asked you the original question apparently instead of Todd (post #1385). All I got from him was some unattributed generalizations and a “do the math” attitude/platitude.
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Good, ask him. I’m sorta tired of trying to convince people that it’s wrong to shut down the entire economy and take away people’s rights. Our values aren’t aligned, and statistics won’t change that.
 
SteveC said:
I should have asked you the original question apparently instead of Todd (post #1385). All I got from him was some unattributed generalizations and a “do the math” attitude/platitude.
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He’s still in his 30’s so he’s probably still under the false impression that noblemen, politicians and the power structure scour the internet in search of opinions. :)

Agree with the response or not, we’re along for the ride because there is zero leadership and it’s basically anarchy.
 
QXDX said:
I'm shocked at the number of people out there think that "stay home stay safe" can continue indefinitely. Do you not get that 40,000,000 people are out of work? That is 66 people out of work for every 1 COVID-19 death. If just one of those 66 people die, due to starvation, exposure, illness, suicide, or other poverty related causes, the poverty death count will exceed the COVID death count. And' we're only two months into this.
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Oh damn that’s crazy. It’s almost like the government should have some program for people out of work to still get a check. And maybe even a little more cus you know, this is a global health pandemic and what not. Wow a Trump check would prob help a lot of those types right about now ...
 
Skåning said:
Oh damn that’s crazy. It’s almost like the government should have some program for people out of work to still get a check. And maybe even a little more cus you know, this is a global health pandemic and what not. Wow a Trump check would prob help a lot of those types right about now ...
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The current estimates are that 40% of these “temporary” job losses will become permanent as businesses go under. Unemployment benefits don’t last years. The idea that we can just print and distribute money for months (years?) on end and everything will be fine is insanity. Staying locked down and pretending it can only have a positive outcome is fantasy.
 
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typhoonpilot said:
I'll play, these are the numbers to start:


Delta 15%
United 20%
AA 15%
SWA 10%
Spirit 15%
Allegiant 15%
Alaska 15%
JetBlue 15%
Fedex 0
UPS 0
Atlas 0
Kalitta 0

Numerous regionals will furlough, some have already gone out of business.
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I think your numbers are low based upon fleets retired and number of airplanes parked. Gut feeling? Or are you basing them on anything in particular? After 9/11 the % was higher than 10-15% and this is far worse (so far)


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Derg said:
Agree with the response or not, we’re along for the ride because there is zero leadership and it’s basically anarchy.
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Anarchy would be a radical improvement, actually.

Skåning said:
Oh damn that’s crazy. It’s almost like the government should have some program for people out of work to still get a check. And maybe even a little more cus you know, this is a global health pandemic and what not. Wow a Trump check would prob help a lot of those types right about now ...
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Do you really not understand that government money comes from citizens, and doesn’t pop out of thin air?
 
ZapBrannigan said:
I think your numbers are low based upon fleets retired and number of airplanes parked. Gut feeling? Or are you basing them on anything in particular? After 9/11 the % was higher than 10-15% and this is far worse (so far)


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I did say 15,000 to 30,000 earlier in the thread. I think the low end is 15,000, if the lockdowns and ridiculous global rules continue into the fall it will go much higher.

Remember it takes awhile to furlough large numbers. After 9-11 I wasn't furloughed until November, 2002 in the third or fourth group of furloughees. There could be a much larger initial group this time simply because so many pilot are inactive and the airlines have until October 1 to train for adequate staffing levels.

Hate to say that, but just being realistic.
 
typhoonpilot said:
I did say 15,000 to 30,000 earlier in the thread. I think the low end is 15,000, if the lockdowns and ridiculous global rules continue into the fall it will go much higher.

Remember it takes awhile to furlough large numbers. After 9-11 I wasn't furloughed until November, 2002 in the third or fourth group of furloughees. There could be a much larger initial group this time simply because so many pilot are inactive and the airlines have until October 1 to train for adequate staffing levels.

Hate to say that, but just being realistic.
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I agree with you. I wasn't furloughed until March 02. I fear the cuts will be much deeper this time unless the airlines somehow cobble together an extremely lucrative early retirement offer for pilots over age 60.


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