Furlough Estimates

[chrisreedrules]

Most of my friends who are working in hospitals as nurses, NPs, and doctors have said that many who pass from CV-19 would have been at high risk of death from other ailments. And also I have a tenant who is 83 and beat both pneumonia and CV-19 back to back. She said the worst part was the isolation.

And all that is to say that I simply don’t agree with keeping our country shutdown at this point. Pandemics gonna pandemic. We have to live our lives. Wash your hands. Wear a mask if you want. Don’t stick your finger in your eyeball. The damage to our economy is already awful, and it will continue to get worse. If we shut down any more we’ll be on a full-fledged path to a depression.

 

[SteveC]

You should be shocked by that...if that’s what we were actually saying. In reality, though, what we’re saying is that more will die and far, far more will suffer immensely from the consequences of the economic damage that is being caused.

I haven’t been following along too closely so I apologize in advance if you’ve covered this already, but I’m interested in the rationale behind the statement “...more will die...from the consequences of the economic damage...”. Can you point me to some supporting info?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Thanks!

You might be right, 100% infection rates might be a little overboard.

But Germany predicted they'd end up with a 70% infection rate.

Coronavirus: Up to 70% of Germany could become infected - Merkel

The chancellor warns that as many as 58 million Germans could become infected by coronavirus.

www.bbc.com

So let's use that.

854100 * .7 is 597870.

I guess I'm just shocked that there are people out there who care more about their jobs than 600,000 of their fellow Americans dying in a reasonably short period of time.

600k? More die per year from heart disease (647k) and cancer. Deaths are still deaths, even though heart disease and cancer aren’t contagious.

Are they gonna pay their fellow Americans bills and put food on the table once unemployment runs out? No? Okay then.

 

[Eagle421flyer]

It is heart breaking/sickening.

What do you think changed his tune? Wasn't he saying a week ago how things were going great?

Unless they are feeding the pilots something different than the FA’s I haven’t heard my wife say anyone there thinks it is great right now. From my view point he’s certainly been more honest and upfront with how (bad) things are then my ceo has been.


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[Gonzo]

Unless they are feeding the pilots something different than the FA’s I haven’t heard my wife say anyone there thinks it is great right now. From my view point he’s certainly been more honest and upfront with how (bad) things are then my ceo has been.


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Most of the wall street guys I have read, say you guys are in the best shape out of all the US airlines.

 

[Eagle421flyer]

Most of the wall street guys I have read, say you guys are in the best shape out of all the US airlines.

I really don’t think anyone is in a good position. Last year we were at about 750 flights a day and right now we are at 50 going to 100ish in June. It’s unsustainable for any airline, much less us. I will say that I *think* domestic travel will come back before international (if only because of quarantine regulations for pax).


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[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I really don’t think anyone is in a good position. Last year we were at about 750 flights a day and right now we are at 50 going to 100ish in June. It’s unsustainable for any airline, much less us. I will say that I *think* domestic travel will come back before international (if only because of quarantine regulations for pax).


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You’re SWA? You’re in the best shape to weather this. How many years/seniority do you have?

 

[Eagle421flyer]

You’re SWA? You’re in the best shape to weather this. How many years/seniority do you have?

No my wife is an Fa there though so I hear about it from her. I figure between the two of us one might have a job come October (but I don’t think it’s her she’s only been there 4 years).

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Aren't the pretty reliable now?

I was in the "I had a really bad flu and think i had this" camp. So I went and had the SARS-CoV-2 Antibody IgG, it was negative. Quest claimed that this test is 100% accurate if positive and only has a 2% false negative rate.

Dunno bro, but every time I had flu-like symptoms and checked my symptoms online. WebMD legit said I had A.I.D.S

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I haven’t been following along too closely so I apologize in advance if you’ve covered this already, but I’m interested in the rationale behind the statement “...more will die...from the consequences of the economic damage...”. Can you point me to some supporting info?

Just one of many examples: Major Boston hospital finds dramatic drop in stroke, heart attack, and cancer patients during coronavirus pandemic - The Boston Globe

 

[sp238882]

Dunno bro, but every time I had flu-like symptoms and checked my symptoms online. WebMD legit said I had A.I.D.S

WebMD. where the answer is always "Allergies....or you're dying"

 

[Crockrocket94]

No my wife is an Fa there though so I hear about it from her. I figure between the two of us one might have a job come October (but I don’t think it’s her she’s only been there 4 years).

I think the FAs are more doom and gloom here than the pilot group. But don't go to the swapa forums those 20 people that post there would lead you to think we are all screwed and Russia is gonna invade alaska.

 

[SteveC]

Just one of many examples: Major Boston hospital finds dramatic drop in stroke, heart attack, and cancer patients during coronavirus pandemic - The Boston Globe

Thanks for that, but I don’t see it directly supporting your original statement that the economic impact of the stay-at-home orders will kill more than the virus.

The article talks about patients/people that are not going in for care when they should (heart issues, stroke signs, cancer screening, etc.) and the increase in resultant death rates for those which could have been prevented. BUT, the issue causing those unneeded deaths is the lack of understanding on the part of individuals. It is not because the stay-at-home orders are directly responsible, but because of misunderstandings that the health care professionals are trying to correct (thus the reason for the article in the first place).

I thought you were saying that the shut-down, and resulting economic impact, was/is causing more deaths through factors such as higher suicide rates, or....other(?). Again, I haven’t been looking at that aspect specifically so maybe I missed it, thus my question looking for indications that the shut-down is/will kill more than the virus (coming up on 100,000 U.S.).

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Thanks for that, but I don’t see it directly supporting your original statement that the economic impact of the stay-at-home orders will kill more than the virus.

The article talks about patients/people that are not going in for care when they should (heart issues, stroke signs, cancer screening, etc.) and the increase in resultant death rates for those which could have been prevented. BUT, the issue causing those unneeded deaths is the lack of understanding on the part of individuals. It is not because the stay-at-home orders are directly responsible, but because of misunderstandings that the health care professionals are trying to correct (thus the reason for the article in the first place).

I thought you were saying that the shut-down, and resulting economic impact, was/is causing more deaths through factors such as higher suicide rates, or....other(?). Again, I haven’t been looking at that aspect specifically so maybe I missed it, thus my question looking for indications that the shut-down is/will kill more than the virus (coming up on 100,000 U.S.).

Okay, that doesn’t scare you enough? (It should)

How about reading up on studies that show correlation between unemployment and suicide. Most show that the suicide rate doubles to triples for those unemployed. Our current unemployment rate is likely approaching 25%, which is five times what it was a few months ago. In a normal year, about 50,000 Americans commit suicide. You do the math.

 

[arkflyr]

I think the FAs are more doom and gloom here than the pilot group. But don't go to the swapa forums those 20 people that post there would lead you to think we are all screwed and Russia is gonna invade alaska.

I think I’ve said it here before but that forum and the C2020 fb page are nothing more than a circular firing squad with the same dozen and a half people ranting away.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Yeah. As a member of the circular firing squad I acknowledge my role in that.

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[SteveC]

Okay, that doesn’t scare you enough? (It should)

You lost me. People misunderstanding the situation and mistakenly avoiding treatment that could save their lives is a correctable situation. It is tragic that it happens, but it can be fixed. Not sure why that should scare me?

How about reading up on studies that show correlation between unemployment and suicide. Most show that the suicide rate doubles to triples for those unemployed. Our current unemployment rate is likely approaching 25%, which is five times what it was a few months ago. In a normal year, about 50,000 Americans commit suicide. You do the math.

Ok, I went ahead and did some (admittedly) cursory reading so I could ”do the math”. You didn’t give enough information.

[One thing that caught my eye while reading is that the jump in suicide rates are seen in unemployed people in a longer term timetable, like 3 to 5 years, so an immediate jump is improbable at best. This would, of course, bring into the discussion a “how long will this economic impact last” factor. I am sure that we have differing opinions on that, so to keep ”the math” simple I will stipulate that the impact is felt immediately rather than go down the other rabbit hole. In other words, the increase in suicide rate among unemployed will be considered to be immediate rather than incrementally applied.]

Suicide rates in the U.S. have been creeping up over the years - as of a couple of years ago was around 14 per 100,000 (was closer to 10 per hundred-K a decade prior). I’ll use 15/100,000 as baseline. I’ll use a doubling of the suicide rate for the unemployed. For round numbers, I’ll use 50,000,000 additional unemployed workers.

Doubling the suicide rate means that there would be an additional 15/100,000 amongst the unemployed.

(15/100,000) * 50,000,000 = 7,500 additional deaths per year.

How did I do?

 

[AAPalmTree]

@Roger Roger our international prognosticators have good news.

U.S. could be coronavirus-free by late September, these Singapore scientists say

The US could finally be free of the coronavirus in late September, and the whole world can expect to put the pandemic behind them in December, says a group...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Roger Roger]

@Roger Roger our international prognosticators have good news.

U.S. could be coronavirus-free by late September, these Singapore scientists say

The US could finally be free of the coronavirus in late September, and the whole world can expect to put the pandemic behind them in December, says a group...

www.marketwatch.com

Well, then we ought to keep something like our current level of restrictions, since that’s the data they extrapolated from. Like seriously, it even says in the article that they warn people that loosening up from the time period that they pulled their data from will throw off that timeline.

 

[AAPalmTree]

Well, then we ought to keep something like our current level of restrictions, since that’s the data they extrapolated from. Like seriously, it even says in the article that they warn people that loosening up from the time period that they pulled their data from will throw off that timeline.

I’ll quarantine to one room in the house if this is true!