Furlough Estimates

Maurus said:
While true that the regionals are also at risk they may not suffer as much depending on how the load factors shift. Management has no reason to put a 737 on a route that a CRJ can cover at a lower cost unless they reduce frequency.

Predicting the future is fun but there are so many paths that could be taken at this point that it wont be easy to figure out. I will say the least likely scenario is one where everything returns to normal or at least close enough to feel normal.
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They do have one reason, scope.
 
Kingairer said:
They do have one reason, scope.
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How likely do you think it is that scope could be relaxed if there are bankruptcies? I'm assuming there will be plenty of concessionary bankruptcy contracts over the next few years all over the industry.

Of course with how massive the cutbacks are even if scope is relaxed there's no way the regionals won't shrink drastically. I think most small regionals such as the one I work for will go the way of TSA and Compass over the next year or two.
 
Yakob said:
How likely do you think it is that scope could be relaxed if there are bankruptcies? I'm assuming there will be plenty of concessionary bankruptcy contracts over the next few years all over the industry.

Of course with how massive the cutbacks are even if scope is relaxed there's no way the regionals won't shrink drastically. I think most small regionals such as the one I work for will go the way of TSA and Compass over the next year or two.
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It would certainly take a bankruptcy to get any scope concessions. I think it would be the last thing a union would give up even after hourly wages or reduction in hours. Any sort of CPA that is up for renewal in the near future is probably very much in doubt.
 
Maurus said:
While true that the regionals are also at risk they may not suffer as much depending on how the load factors shift. Management has no reason to put a 737 on a route that a CRJ can cover at a lower cost unless they reduce frequency.

Predicting the future is fun but there are so many paths that could be taken at this point that it wont be easy to figure out. I will say the least likely scenario is one where everything returns to normal or at least close enough to feel normal.
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I think you’re forgetting about the 220 and how that’s being deployed.

You can sublet the flying out with various unreliable results, or downgauge or up-gauge without any restrictions and control the product from soup to nuts. They’re not here to replace 717’s...
 
Derg said:
I think you’re forgetting about the 220 and how that’s being deployed.

You can sublet the flying out with various unreliable results, or downgauge or up-gauge without any restrictions and control the product from soup to nuts. They’re not here to replace 717’s...
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I wouldn’t be sure of anything until delta releases their fleet plan.
 
Derg said:
I think you’re forgetting about the 220 and how that’s being deployed.

You can sublet the flying out with various unreliable results, or downgauge or up-gauge without any restrictions and control the product from soup to nuts. They’re not here to replace 717’s...
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that’s not what the Tiger Team told me in their upcoming Mission Tasking and Utilization Concept of Operations, Blue Ribbon report, that is based on SJIs most current Military Table or Organization and Equipment.

:)
 
Kingairer said:
They do have one reason, scope.
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True but they are limited based on single-aisle planes from what I understand. A lot of dual aisle planes are getting parked for the long term. Obviously there are not a lot of them but it will likely help keep some single-aisle planes flying on the domestic routes the larger aircraft would normally cover. I also believe the CRJ-700s may not fall under AA scope since they are less than 67 seats. The impact will certainly vary between the three big airlines.

I know the regionals will be impacted. By how much? Dunno.

Of course all this goes out the window if another bankruptcy occurs because of this mess.

Derg said:
I think you’re forgetting about the 220 and how that’s being deployed.

You can sublet the flying out with various unreliable results, or downgauge or up-gauge without any restrictions and control the product from soup to nuts. They’re not here to replace 717’s...
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While true this does not apply to anyone but SouthernJets. The smallest aircraft operating at UA and AA at this time is the A319 I do believe.
 
MikeD said:
that’s not what the Tiger Team told me in their upcoming Mission Tasking and Utilization Concept of Operations, Blue Ribbon report, that is based on SJIs most current Military Table or Organization and Equipment.

:)
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Fortunately, Mr. “Tiger Team Deep Data Dive Tactical Approach to (whatever)” isn’t in that position any more.
 
Yakob said:
How likely do you think it is that scope could be relaxed if there are bankruptcies? I'm assuming there will be plenty of concessionary bankruptcy contracts over the next few years all over the industry.

Of course with how massive the cutbacks are even if scope is relaxed there's no way the regionals won't shrink drastically. I think most small regionals such as the one I work for will go the way of TSA and Compass over the next year or two.
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What kind of scope relief do you think they'll go after? More dual class 76 seaters than what's currently allowed? Or do you think they'll try for their wet dream scenario and get 110 seaters like the E2-190/195 at the regionals, or both options?
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
What kind of scope relief do you think they'll go after? More dual class 76 seaters than what's currently allowed? Or do you think they'll try for their wet dream scenario and get 110 seaters like the E2-190/195 at the regionals, or both options?
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That's not the wet dream.

Franchising out the entire model to contractors, and then having them bid against each other for pieces of the route network is the wet dream.
 
learhawkerbe400 said:
30,000 furloughs? Are you talking worldwide? Are you including just pilots or all airline employees?

AA has slightly more than 13k active pilots. Prob same for delta and a little less for United. Excluding cargo i doubt there’s 60k active major airline pilots. 30,000 furloughed would be insane.

AA’a staffing has used an assumption of 20% of 2019 for fall, 40% in Jan 21, 60% spring then 80% next summer. There’s an excess of 1100 pilots using those numbers. So a furlough seems unlikely as long as demand returns close to what they’ve modeled.

But yea, this whole thing is dumb and I can’t wait to stop hearing people talk about this virus.
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Todd, basically answered for me. Thank you Todd, that is about exactly what my reply was going to be. If we took that out to worldwide there are easily 30,000 furloughs already and the total number worldwide will easily exceed 100,000.

I am not at all happy about this, but we need to be realistic based on how government are behaving and what travel demand is indicating.
 
typhoonpilot said:
Todd, basically answered for me. Thank you Todd, that is about exactly what my reply was going to be. If we took that out to worldwide there are easily 30,000 furloughs already and the total number worldwide will easily exceed 100,000.

I am not at all happy about this, but we need to be realistic based on how government are behaving and what travel demand is indicating.
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I get what you're saying, but US airlines don't operate like this.

For a furlough to make sense is takes a period of time, between 1 and 2 years for it to be economically viable.

That snapshot is going to be taken in the fall for a year in the future. If long term bookings are still down then sure, furloughs will happen. But 30,000 pilots wouldn't be out of the job today.
 
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