Furlough Estimates

Maximillian_Jenius said:
Some possibly good news on the horizon, maybe?

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What cracks me up is seeing these articles trying to paint a pretty picture, but when you actually read them you see that it’s just polishing a turd. For example, a 50% hotel occupancy rate is abysmal. Sure, it’s better than the 25% rate that they had a month ago. But it still means death. Marriott is like an airline. Their normal net margin is in the single digits. You see your occupancy rate drop by a third when you’re just barely scraping by in even a booming economy, then you’re in trouble.
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
So not Alaska, right? :D
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You say that in jest... but Alaska is a legacy.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
What cracks me up is seeing these articles trying to paint a pretty picture, but when you actually read them you see that it’s just polishing a turd. For example, a 50% hotel occupancy rate is abysmal. Sure, it’s better than the 25% rate that they had a month ago. But it still means death. Marriott is like an airline. Their normal net margin is in the single digits. You see your occupancy rate drop by a third when you’re just barely scraping by in even a booming economy, then you’re in trouble.
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Gotta start somewhere.
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
Lol, look. . . I just spent $65k. I'm just trying to have hope here that I didn't make a dumb decision. And that, that money will eventually go to good use to have an aviation career. o_O

I don't want to be a tech or a nurse paying back an aviation loan.
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where are you at in your training ? hope all is going well.
 
Maybe Calhoun is right and we are going to lose a major carrier. Although, he's changed his comments a lot this entire crisis. Then he says we won't even be at 25% capacity by Sept, but maybe 50% by December??? So after Sept we can just expect a big random spike? He should probably stick to figuring out when the MAX will get fixed and if Boeing can even survive, let alone a major.

Makes you wonder, a major airline as in the big 3? Big 4? The correct term of a major?

I do agree that the domestic carriers are weathered to storm this the best. But how much more are we talking as we are still down what 90%? I think domestic should be better positioned to weather the storm, but if it doesn't improve by next summer then some may not make it to test that theory out. I can't see how our big 3 doesn't survive this. Maybe some, or all, will need bankruptcy.

The last 2 months went by painfully slow and a lot has changed since then. 4 1/2 months feels like an eternity where a lot can change.
 
I agree that his radical jump to 50% by December makes no sense. My predictions:

Fall: 25%
Dec: 35%
Summer 2021: 55%
Dec 2021: 65%
Dec 2022: 75%
Dec 2023: 80%
Dec 2024: 85%
..........
Dec 2029: 100%

Bankruptcies for all except maybe Southwest, thanks to their balance sheet strength. Numerous regionals will cease to exist.
 
GK didn't like having to compete against bankrupt carriers after 9/11. I would imagine he would take a run through the courts just so he doesn't get left out at the Bean Counters Cotillion or something.

If we are only at 35% by the end of the year I'm gonna be like "Would you like fries or tots with your burger?"


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ZapBrannigan said:
GK didn't like having to compete against bankrupt carriers after 9/11. I would imagine he would take a run through the courts just so he doesn't get left out at the Bean Counters Cotillion or something.

If we are only at 35% by the end of the year I'm gonna be like "Would you like fries or tots with your burger?"


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Having had the misfortune of dealing with Gary and the rest of the senior management in Dall-ass, I disagree. They put an extreme value on their "CULTure," and I think Gary would burn the furniture to heat the place before he went through bankruptcy. It would be an absolute last resort for them, which is why he's spent so much effort on building up the balance sheet, and why they took out a big line of credit last month.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
GK didn't like having to compete against bankrupt carriers after 9/11. I would imagine he would take a run through the courts just so he doesn't get left out at the Bean Counters Cotillion or something.

If we are only at 35% by the end of the year I'm gonna be like "Would you like fries or tots with your burger?"


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Sorry bud, you're going to need a master's degree for those jobs.
 
JordanD said:
Somtimes I wonder how many of these guys writing these articles are like the ESPN round-table shows trying to stretch how to fill 24 hours with random comments about basketball.
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You ever looked at how easy it is to be a Forbes online "contributor?" I've been offered it a few times, and I know a few people who are. Anybody who trusts these online articles as some sort of authority on anything is clueless.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
You ever looked at how easy it is to be a Forbes online "contributor?" I've been offered it a few times, and I know a few people who are. Anybody who trusts these online articles as some sort of authority on anything is clueless.
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Where were you when I took an Apple Pencil to CC’s pay-to-play article written by a “Senior Health Writer“ for Daily Mail? LOL.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I agree that his radical jump to 50% by December makes no sense. My predictions:

Fall: 25%
Dec: 35%
Summer 2021: 55%
Dec 2021: 65%
Dec 2022: 75%
Dec 2023: 80%
Dec 2024: 85%
..........
Dec 2029: 100%

Bankruptcies for all except maybe Southwest, thanks to their balance sheet strength. Numerous regionals will cease to exist.
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Out of curiosity, other than you having a bigger ego than those guys cranking out the Seeking Alpha or Forbes articles, what makes your predictions any better than theirs? At least they get some coin to say random numbers.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Uh oh, who’s going out of business?


www.geekwire.com

Boeing CEO tells NBC that pandemic is ‘likely’ to put a major U.S. airline out of business

Boeing CEO, David Calhoun tells NBC's "Today" show that a major U.S. airline will "most likely" go out of business due to fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak.
www.geekwire.com www.geekwire.com


  • Calhoun said, “Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100%. They won’t even be back to 25.”
  • It might take until the end of the year for levels to approach 50%, “so there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines,” Calhoun said in an excerpt released today.
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Interviewer: How do you see the airline industry shaking out?

Boeing CEO: Well this un commanded event has sent the airlines flailing out of control and CEOs are trying to do everything they can to recover. I see it as an inevitability that at least one or two companies enter unrecoverable nosedives with tragic outcomes.

Interviewer: ...

Boeing CEO: ...
 
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Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I thank goodness Alaska bought us.
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Eff that noise. We woulda been bought by DL or JB and in a MUCH better position.

tcco94 said:
Maybe Calhoun ...He should probably stick to figuring out when the MAX will get fixed and if Boeing can even survive, let alone a major.
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This x100

SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I agree that his radical jump to 50% by December makes no sense. My predictions:

Fall: 25%
Dec: 35%
Summer 2021: 55%
Dec 2021: 65%
Dec 2022: 75%
Dec 2023: 80%
Dec 2024: 85%
..........
Dec 2029: 100%

Bankruptcies for all except maybe Southwest, thanks to their balance sheet strength. Numerous regionals will cease to exist.
Click to expand...
Soul Brotha' said:
I predict that there are going to be a lot more predictions about what might happen.
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I predict the recovery will take 40 years and then only back to 2008 travel levels.:biggrin:
 
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