Furlough Estimates

SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Keep in mind that it’s one full flight on a schedule that’s been reduced by 90%.
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This is what really scares me for October.

Normally in June I take my son on a boys trip. I'd even buy tickets so we make sure we get where we are going. This year, uncertainty over what will be open led us to decide just to stay home and go camping.

That's my airline's problem. Not only do people have to feel comfortable flying, but Disney, the cruise lines, Vegas Casinos, Broadway musicals, etc need to be open to give people something to go to. And then, once all of that happens, they need to have the disposable income to go do it in the worst recession/depression in history.

Bottom line, I think we are screwed.

The government will prop up one or more of the legacies. The rest of us will fight over scraps like starving vultures. Before October I expect to be looking at a career change and I don't even know where to start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ZapBrannigan said:
This is what really scares me for October.

Normally in June I take my son on a boys trip. I'd even buy tickets so we make sure we get where we are going. This year, uncertainty over what will be open led us to decide just to stay home and go camping.

That's my airline's problem. Not only do people have to feel comfortable flying, but Disney, the cruise lines, Vegas Casinos, Broadway musicals, etc need to be open to give people something to go to. And then, once all of that happens, they need to have the disposable income to go do it in the worst recession/depression in history.

Bottom line, I think we are screwed.

The government will prop up one or more of the legacies. The rest of us will fight over scraps like starving vultures. Before October I expect to be looking at a career change and I don't even know where to start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Your airline is, by FAR, the best positioned to survive this. Gary may be a dirtbag, but he counts beans better than anyone else. And you know how much it pains me to say that. :)
 
typhoonpilot said:
I hate to be negative but we have to be realistic.

Minimum of 15,000 to 30,000 starting October 1. It takes time to furlough that many, but the total numbers will get that high.

Best case scenario travel gets back to 60% of pre-COVID numbers by the end of 2020. It might return to 100% of pre-COVID levels by 2023. The furloughs will hopefully not last as long as the post 9-11 furloughs due to retirements.

* The asterisk part is early out options like AA has done. If those are offered by DAL and UAL then it would obviously reduce the number necessary from the bottom end of the list.

If I was a U.S. airline pilot I would be pushing the government to stop the border restrictions and lengthy quarantine requirements as soon as possible. Those are literally destroying the airline industry. That can be done with rapid COVID tests like Emirates has already started for every passenger prior to boarding.

Post 9-11 a junior USAirways captain would get bumped down to F.O., then in bankruptcy their pay was reduced. So effectively they went from $200K/year to $75K/year. If you are a junior captain you should be budgeting for a greater than 50% pay cut. Obviously junior F.O.s should be budgeting for a 100% pay cut after their severance and unemployment ends.

I've been furloughed twice from a major. The first time was the deep recession of 1991 and it took one year to find a low paying flying job and almost 4 years to get back to what I was making as a junior F.O.. Post 9-11 I was ahead of the curve because other airlines overseas were still hiring so I had a job three months before my severance ran out. I see this time as more of a 1991 recession scenario because nobody will be hiring for years. You have to be willing to go back down to jobs that you never thought you would have to do again. One of my good friends re-started post 91 furlough working the line at an FBO. Others took jobs at Fedex as delivery drivers or at United throwing bags to get inline for preferential interviews. Be ready to do that if you want to stay in aviation.
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30,000 furloughs? Are you talking worldwide? Are you including just pilots or all airline employees?

AA has slightly more than 13k active pilots. Prob same for delta and a little less for United. Excluding cargo i doubt there’s 60k active major airline pilots. 30,000 furloughed would be insane.

AA’a staffing has used an assumption of 20% of 2019 for fall, 40% in Jan 21, 60% spring then 80% next summer. There’s an excess of 1100 pilots using those numbers. So a furlough seems unlikely as long as demand returns close to what they’ve modeled.

But yea, this whole thing is dumb and I can’t wait to stop hearing people talk about this virus.
 
JEP said:
Come on @Maximillian_Jenius 10 planes with 10 people, take 9 planes out of commission and 1 plane with 100 people.... same pax count but not really 'full'.... ;-)
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Lol, look. . . I just spent $65k. I'm just trying to have hope here that I didn't make a dumb decision. And that, that money will eventually go to good use to have an aviation career. o_O

I don't want to be a tech or a nurse paying back an aviation loan.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
This is what really scares me for October.

Normally in June I take my son on a boys trip. I'd even buy tickets so we make sure we get where we are going. This year, uncertainty over what will be open led us to decide just to stay home and go camping.

That's my airline's problem. Not only do people have to feel comfortable flying, but Disney, the cruise lines, Vegas Casinos, Broadway musicals, etc need to be open to give people something to go to. And then, once all of that happens, they need to have the disposable income to go do it in the worst recession/depression in history.

Bottom line, I think we are screwed.

The government will prop up one or more of the legacies. The rest of us will fight over scraps like starving vultures. Before October I expect to be looking at a career change and I don't even know where to start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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We always knew April and May were going to be the worst months for airlines. IF we don’t see another NYC style spike, You’re going to be fine. I know you have PTFurloughD but the cuts won’t get to you.
 
jtrain609 said:
I think the only positive thing we have going now is a better idea of how to handle the next wave of this virus. That should give people some confidence that numbers can be reduced when the next spike happens.
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And with how big and spread out we are we can move personnel and resources around the country as each metropolis goes through its NYC moment. And even apart from containing spread docs in NYC learned a huge amount about treatment. I think if they can figure out how to do something about the clotting problem that will help save a lot of lives.

and all of our food is supplied by expendable immigrant workers who we can throw to the COVID gods.
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
So you think that the current good times of 121 cargo, won't last either?
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It is slightly behind the pax curve. A lot of small business, which are closed, aren’t getting their supplies via UPS/FEDEX, or shipping them to customers.
My good buddy is being told to expect a furlough at a larger cargo feeder.
 
learhawkerbe400 said:
30,000 furloughs? Are you talking worldwide? Are you including just pilots or all airline employees?

AA has slightly more than 13k active pilots. Prob same for delta and a little less for United. Excluding cargo i doubt there’s 60k active major airline pilots. 30,000 furloughed would be insane.

AA’a staffing has used an assumption of 20% of 2019 for fall, 40% in Jan 21, 60% spring then 80% next summer. There’s an excess of 1100 pilots using those numbers. So a furlough seems unlikely as long as demand returns close to what they’ve modeled.

But yea, this whole thing is dumb and I can’t wait to stop hearing people talk about this virus.
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Your problem is assuming that furloughs will only be coming from the major carriers. This isn't 2002. The regionals aren't growing while mainline shrinks. The pain will be felt across the industry.

ALPA has about 65,000 members just itself. Then there's SWAPA at what now? Maybe 10,000? The APA has 13,000 or so. Then the IBT regionals and ACMI carriers. Etc. All in all, you're at somewhere over 100,000 airline pilots in the country.

So yeah, I'd say 20-30,000 is about the right number furloughed. To start with.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Your problem is assuming that furloughs will only be coming from the major carriers. This isn't 2002. The regionals aren't growing while mainline shrinks. The pain will be felt across the industry.
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While true that the regionals are also at risk they may not suffer as much depending on how the load factors shift. Management has no reason to put a 737 on a route that a CRJ can cover at a lower cost unless they reduce frequency.

Predicting the future is fun but there are so many paths that could be taken at this point that it wont be easy to figure out. I will say the least likely scenario is one where everything returns to normal or at least close enough to feel normal.
 
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