Furlough Estimates

Air Wisconsin just announced IAD / CAE base closures effective June 1st. Half the pilot list just became commuters.
 
bike21 said:
Much too pessimistic for my money. YMMV.
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Is Todd known for being optimistic? Some in this forum said we will never see high pax demands ever again and it will take 2 decades to recover from this. Internet opinions are all over the place.
 
I think its really hit or miss on the 91/135 side. A couple of the big 91 outfits around us have given part of their pilot groups 3 months unpaid but they keep their benefits and they will re-evaluate at that point. Others are making everyone take 25% paycuts. On the 135 side some are doing great and still flying and others have laid off. I don't think there is a safe side right now. I do think once travel restrictions are lifted that the 91/135 will recover much faster than the 121 for many of the reasons listed above.
 
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No way does international come back anytime soon. Domestic will come back far sooner. Hate to say it, but this gonna hurt the big 3 for a longer period of time than the national legacy/majors.
 
Here's my prediction: quarantine will become permanent. Well, not in its present shape and form. Schools will reopen. So will some businesses. Social distancing will become the norm. Many industries will never fully recover. International travel is one of them, at least not in our lifetimes. Government travel restrictions will become commonplace (think "health visa" to virtually any country, mandatory 2 weeks isolation for all arrivals etc). Wannabe dictators will continue their power grab and restricting freedoms.

This in unfortunate for the airline industry but also this will be a catalyst for new industries that will start emerging soon. Remote work for office clerks will become the norm rather than exception. Outsourcing will further accelerate.

Also, I would not tie the economic recovery prospects to any cure like vaccines, antivirals etc. This whole pandemic event is as mild as it could possibly be, with the novel coronavirus being just a hair more aggressive than common cold. And even this mild of a virus demonstrated how woefully unprepared we (humanity) were. Communists, capitalists, socialists, liberals, conservatives, national healthcare systems, private healthcare systems... All of them are failing spectacularly! And at the same time there's probably another virus lurking somewhere in domesticated dogs or rats or maybe ants that is one mutation away from crossing over to humans and causing hemorrhagic fever with mortality of Ebola and 30 days of contagious symptomless incubation period.
 
hammerhat said:
Here's my prediction: quarantine will become permanent. Well, not in its present shape and form. Schools will reopen. So will some businesses. Social distancing will become the norm. Many industries will never fully recover. International travel is one of them, at least not in our lifetimes. Government travel restrictions will become commonplace (think "health visa" to virtually any country, mandatory 2 weeks isolation for all arrivals etc). Wannabe dictators will continue their power grab and restricting freedoms.

This in unfortunate for the airline industry but also this will be a catalyst for new industries that will start emerging soon. Remote work for office clerks will become the norm rather than exception. Outsourcing will further accelerate.

Also, I would not tie the economic recovery prospects to any cure like vaccines, antivirals etc. This whole pandemic event is as mild as it could possibly be, with the novel coronavirus being just a hair more aggressive than common cold. And even this mild of a virus demonstrated how woefully unprepared we (humanity) were. Communists, capitalists, socialists, liberals, conservatives, national healthcare systems, private healthcare systems... All of them are failing spectacularly! And at the same time there's probably another virus lurking somewhere in domesticated dogs or rats or maybe ants that is one mutation away from crossing over to humans and causing hemorrhagic fever with mortality of Ebola and 30 days of contagious symptomless incubation period.
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I fly international cargo, so it doesn't matter that much to me whether international passenger travel comes back or not. But I do have the experience of living abroad and spending a lot of time outside the US, at least in Asia anyway.

The economies in Asia are extremely dependent upon foreign tourism, and the economies, governments, and citizens are very eager to get past this as soon as possible. I think it will be awhile before people in the west can afford to and/or feel comfortable travelling in Asia again, but none of what you're saying aligns with anything that I have seen or heard out here.

Many Asian countries have already dealt with scary pandemics before (SARS-1 being the biggest prior to this one), and they moved past it very quickly with some permanent changes like temperature screening. If anything affects long term travel out here, it won't be from the issues you're suggesting. There's no proof of that at all, and honestly it's so far outside reality I am thinking you don't have much experience outside the US.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
My tenant can’t pay rent this month. Free living for her while I get NO fun or profit. Sounds fair, right? It probably does to some ultra liberals on this site (not you, in general).
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I wonder if incorporating your rental property as a business would give you relief as a small business in the upcoming government stimulus package?
 
GypsyPilot said:
The economies in Asia are extremely dependent upon foreign tourism, and the economies, governments, and citizens are very eager to get past this as soon as possible. I think it will be awhile before people in the west can afford to and/or feel comfortable travelling in Asia again, but none of what you're saying aligns with anything that I have seen or heard out here.
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I'm not sure I'm following. Hospitality industry in U.S. is extremely depends on people willing to pay 5x the cost of the food and tip generously on top of that but this is over now. Similarly, international tourism is gone now, it will not get anywhere close to where it peaked no matter how badly the supply side wants that.
 
hammerhat said:
I'm not sure I'm following. Hospitality industry in U.S. is extremely depends on people willing to pay 5x the cost of the food and tip generously on top of that but this is over now. Similarly, international tourism is gone now, it will not get anywhere close to where it peaked no matter how badly the supply side wants that.
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Sorry, but I'm not tracking you either. You're now talking about something completely different than your original post.
 
hammerhat said:
I'm not sure I'm following. Hospitality industry in U.S. is extremely depends on people willing to pay 5x the cost of the food and tip generously on top of that but this is over now. Similarly, international tourism is gone now, it will not get anywhere close to where it peaked no matter how badly the supply side wants that.
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hammerhat said:
Here's my prediction: quarantine will become permanent. Well, not in its present shape and form. Schools will reopen. So will some businesses. Social distancing will become the norm. Many industries will never fully recover. International travel is one of them, at least not in our lifetimes. Government travel restrictions will become commonplace (think "health visa" to virtually any country, mandatory 2 weeks isolation for all arrivals etc). Wannabe dictators will continue their power grab and restricting freedoms.

This in unfortunate for the airline industry but also this will be a catalyst for new industries that will start emerging soon. Remote work for office clerks will become the norm rather than exception. Outsourcing will further accelerate.

Also, I would not tie the economic recovery prospects to any cure like vaccines, antivirals etc. This whole pandemic event is as mild as it could possibly be, with the novel coronavirus being just a hair more aggressive than common cold. And even this mild of a virus demonstrated how woefully unprepared we (humanity) were. Communists, capitalists, socialists, liberals, conservatives, national healthcare systems, private healthcare systems... All of them are failing spectacularly! And at the same time there's probably another virus lurking somewhere in domesticated dogs or rats or maybe ants that is one mutation away from crossing over to humans and causing hemorrhagic fever with mortality of Ebola and 30 days of contagious symptomless incubation period.
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Oh please. That’s so beyond reality I can’t even comprehend it. Everyone I know is itching to fly as soon as possible, to other countries as well.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
The way he phrased it sounded a little multi level marketingesque to me.
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Definitely not. Every industry has conferences. Hang around major convention cities enough and you’ll see it. I was in Vegas the week before all hell broke lose. What conference was at the hotel? Amazon delivery drivers. I have no idea what they talk about for three days, but that’s how long they were there.

I could spend three days just talking about all of the ancillary fees I charge tenants. :bounce:

Roger Roger said:
Lol, you think people will want to ACCELERATE outsourcing after this?
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Oh yes. Every businessman I know is focused on outsourcing. The wonders of systems like Zoom, Google Suite, Slack, Time Doctor, etc. make it crazy easy to manage huge teams from thousands of miles away and at a tiny fraction of the cost. Most of my staff lives in Mexico and works from home.

KLB said:
I wonder if incorporating your rental property as a business would give you relief as a small business in the upcoming government stimulus package?
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Yep.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Definitely not. Every industry has conferences. Hang around major convention cities enough and you’ll see it. I was in Vegas the week before all hell broke lose. What conference was at the hotel? Amazon delivery drivers. I have no idea what they talk about for three days, but that’s how long they were there.

I could spend three days just talking about all of the ancillary fees I charge tenants. :bounce:



Oh yes. Every businessman I know is focused on outsourcing. The wonders of systems like Zoom, Google Suite, Slack, Time Doctor, etc. make it crazy easy to manage huge teams from thousands of miles away and at a tiny fraction of the cost. Most of my staff lives in Mexico and works from home.



Yep.
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I'm shocked you are so sold on Zoom despite their privacy issues. And it's concerning how many people are so high on them as well that they're going to be the new norm of business. College institutions are having massive difficulties and constant struggles with it from what I've read. Just figured you would be anti-Zoom. Not attacking you personally.

But again wasn't the same rhetoric said about business in 08? Technology is going to take over, outsourcing will begin and financially it will take a decade to recover or longer.

I think my point is: we are all just arguing opinions here on whether we see the glass half empty or half full...
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Business is evolving before our eyes because of this. In my industry, we just did our first ever industry conference by Zoom meeting last week. We had a big name guest speaker, virtual break out sessions, etc. At the end, everyone was commenting on how they got just as much out of it as they did their last in-person conference. Everyone is figuring out in real time that we can do this stuff without traveling anymore. Business travel is going to go off a cliff, and it ain’t coming back. Not at 2019 levels. Leisure carriers like Spirit will fare better, but carriers traditionally appealing to the premium business pax are gonna get the worst of this.
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I think that's a very interesting perspective. I don't think that will come to fruition though, because if such were the case why even have real time conversation at all? Why hasn't business travel been completely replaced by message boards and email? All the data is already digital, and can be analyzed without the distraction of simultaneous human interaction as it is. I think it's more likely that we will see more conferences/meetups total, than a significant decline in travel for that purpose. Just as people seek realtime human interaction, the same desire exists for interaction in the meat space. When we have avatar bodies explore for us, then yes, but until then I think people will be burning fuel in some form or another just to get from A to B. Whether or not that is truly logical or necessary. We have every tool to completely self isolate, and a reason to, but people still aren't. We are still apes fulfilling ape needs at the end of it.
 
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