Furlough Estimates

SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Business is evolving before our eyes because of this. In my industry, we just did our first ever industry conference by Zoom meeting last week. We had a big name guest speaker, virtual break out sessions, etc. At the end, everyone was commenting on how they got just as much out of it as they did their last in-person conference. Everyone is figuring out in real time that we can do this stuff without traveling anymore. Business travel is going to go off a cliff, and it ain’t coming back. Not at 2019 levels. Leisure carriers like Spirit will fare better, but carriers traditionally appealing to the premium business pax are gonna get the worst of this.
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No doubt some things are going to change to a degree, but don't forget Americans in particular have a short term memory. There are some things that you can't replace with video chat, no way can someone effectively hold the room over video like they can in person. From closing the deal to making a case for a project/idea to checking on supply lines/factories overseas, etc. the list goes on. I agree that the lucrative last minute business travel is going to take a hit for awhile, but it'll come back sooner than later. World is too big and too busy not too.
 
My prediction, assuming this ends soon, I think business travel will come back to about 80% within 2-3 years. Leisure travel will be slower to pick up. Southwest, Frontier and Spirit will see the worst of it, with the lower end leisure travellers staying home if they still have one. Furloughs about 30% in October, with more falling from the locusts in the next year. Cargo will stop hiring in the fall, as they feel the slowdown, and potentially furlough next year.
 
Oil being so cheap could really help us be able to survive again as an industry and not require near 100% load factors.
 
Kingairer said:
Oil being so cheap could really help us be able to survive again as an industry and not require near 100% load factors.
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Hopefully commuting will be a little easier once we get spooled up again but somehow it will probably be a poop show still.
 
NickH said:
My prediction, assuming this ends soon, I think business travel will come back to about 80% within 2-3 years. Leisure travel will be slower to pick up. Southwest, Frontier and Spirit will see the worst of it, with the lower end leisure travellers staying home if they still have one. Furloughs about 30% in October, with more falling from the locusts in the next year. Cargo will stop hiring in the fall, as they feel the slowdown, and potentially furlough next year.
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FedEx has never furloughed, has some contract stuff the spreads the pain, I guess) and is losing 1/3 of their list in the next 5 years to old age. They can probably entice the oldies to leave sooner if they need to since they have a pension to work with and leave the cheap end of the list alone. I know that probably not who you mean when you say cargo, but it’s an example of how varied the response is going to be in the next 36 months.


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ZapBrannigan said:
Agree its all just a guess. There are a generation of pilots who have seen nothing but a rocket ship of career progression. I still say there is value in moderating their unfettered optimism by sharing what happened in 2001 and 2008 and suggesting that this is much, much worse.
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This is a lot worse. I used to tell people “Well, after 9/11...” but at this point I have no guidance.

We haven’t done this before.
 
Flyinthrew said:
FedEx has never furloughed, has some contract stuff the spreads the pain, I guess) and is losing 1/3 of their list in the next 5 years to old age. They can probably entice the oldies to leave sooner if they need to since they have a pension to work with and leave the cheap end of the list alone. I know that probably not who you mean when you say cargo, but it’s an example of how varied the response is going to be in the next 36 months.


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I worked for an airline that has never furloughed until they furloughed.
 
Derg said:
I worked for an airline that has never furloughed until they furloughed.
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Yeah, I’m pretty sure we’re going to see SWA do it. Or maybe all the negative nancies just got me down. The possible futures vary so widely that it’s tough to keep up with all of them.


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Flyinthrew said:
Yeah, I’m pretty sure we’re going to see SWA do it. Or maybe all the negative nancies just got me down. The possible futures vary so widely that it’s tough to keep up with all of them.


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I agree.


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PositiveVibes said:
Now, in regards to furloughs, we are lucky we have a (currently) strong economy, and mandatory retirements over the next several year. Furloughs really depend of the rate of recovery.
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I don't think we have a strong economy. We have an economy based on ever expanding debt that now will have at least 2 months of people sitting around and not doing anything and not spending money. We don't really have a model for this, but I expect the world to look a lot different in the next decade.
 
We will be surprised at how different it is.
We will also be surprised at how similar it is.

It might be anathema to a bunch of aviation professionals, but IMO the world will be better in a lot of ways if this pops the business travel bubble a little bit. The biggest downside I see other than a reduction in aviation jobs is that those last minute business trips paying out the wazoo make it affordable for a lot of us normal people to fly airlines that aren’t spirit/frontier (no offense to the many on here that drive school buses and animal tails natch).
 
CoffeeIcePapers said:
I don't think we have a strong economy. We have an economy based on ever expanding debt that now will have at least 2 months of people sitting around and not doing anything and not spending money. We don't really have a model for this, but I expect the world to look a lot different in the next decade.
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We had a strong economy 2 months ago. That's all gone with the wind now. In the last few weeks there have been more jobless claims than the peak number of people drawing unemployment during the 2008 recession. This is looking like 1929 all over again.
 
bike21 said:
No doubt some things are going to change to a degree, but don't forget Americans in particular have a short term memory. There are some things that you can't replace with video chat, no way can someone effectively hold the room over video like they can in person. From closing the deal to making a case for a project/idea to checking on supply lines/factories overseas, etc. the list goes on. I agree that the lucrative last minute business travel is going to take a hit for awhile, but it'll come back sooner than later. World is too big and too busy not too.
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The boss of the plane called today to tell me business is good and is itching to go somewhere anywhere...business or pleasure. He just wants to get on his plane and take it somewhere.

Lots of the private jet owners and other wealthy people won't trust flying on the airlines. My hopes that some possible airline furloughs will be filled with an uptick in the private jet market. There have been some layoffs on the 135 side and some pay slashes on the 91 side from what some of my buddies have been seeing at their ops. I believe that this is only temporary. We shall see what happens though.
 
KLB said:
The boss of the plane called today to tell me business is good and is itching to go somewhere anywhere...business or pleasure. He just wants to get on his plane and take it somewhere.

Lots of the private jet owners and other wealthy people won't trust flying on the airlines. My hopes that some possible airline furloughs will be filled with an uptick in the private jet market. There have been some layoffs on the 135 side and some pay slashes on the 91 side from what some of my buddies have been seeing at their ops. I believe that this is only temporary. We shall see what happens though.
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Not to turn this into a 91/135 vs 121 thread but you're in a pretty rare situation. Most of my friends who stuck to that side are on the street. Some were canned the first day the market dipped. No notice layoffs. It looks ugly for everyone.
 
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