Furlough Estimates

SteveC said:
I think our business model will do OK on the backside of this as well. I anticipate more use of the fractional and card hours as businesses and individuals reduce their exposure on the airlines, and we’re seeing a strong uptick in interest from individuals that had the means to afford our services but couldn’t justify the jump up from airline first class - now they are seeing the safety benefit of traveling privately with the added bonus of massive time savings to boot.

Our managed aircraft are all owned by privately held companies (or private individuals), so they don’t have the pressure from stock holders to unload them that public companies do. Last downturn we picked up business from publicly held companies that divested their own aircraft but still needed the service for their executives.

And our company is safety first, not “third”.
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I agree. We have applied microsheild 360 to all of our planes along with UV light treatment between flights etc. We are emphasizing these things to our customers so they feel safe choosing us as a option for travel


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SteveC said:
I think our business model will do OK on the backside of this as well. I anticipate more use of the fractional and card hours as businesses and individuals reduce their exposure on the airlines, and we’re seeing a strong uptick in interest from individuals that had the means to afford our services but couldn’t justify the jump up from airline first class - now they are seeing the safety benefit of traveling privately with the added bonus of massive time savings to boot.

Our managed aircraft are all owned by privately held companies (or private individuals), so they don’t have the pressure from stock holders to unload them that public companies do. Last downturn we picked up business from publicly held companies that divested their own aircraft but still needed the service for their executives.

And our company is safety first, not “third”.
Click to expand...
Inverted25 said:
I agree. We have applied microsheild 360 to all of our planes along with UV light treatment between flights etc. We are emphasizing these things to our customers so they feel safe choosing us as a option for travel


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My friends at my former gig that owns XO says that business has been picking up for them lately.

I can tell that one of bosses is a bit anxious to travel. My current situation is getting them to understand that under the current executive order, they will have to self quarantine for 14 days after returning from a hot spot area in the Northeast...and exactly what self quarantine means compared to the current shelter in place order. I can see us flying more once the EO's lift in most areas.
 
SteveC said:
I think our business model will do OK on the backside of this as well. I anticipate more use of the fractional and card hours as businesses and individuals reduce their exposure on the airlines, and we’re seeing a strong uptick in interest from individuals that had the means to afford our services but couldn’t justify the jump up from airline first class - now they are seeing the safety benefit of traveling privately with the added bonus of massive time savings to boot.

Our managed aircraft are all owned by privately held companies (or private individuals), so they don’t have the pressure from stock holders to unload them that public companies do. Last downturn we picked up business from publicly held companies that divested their own aircraft but still needed the service for their executives.

And our company is safety first, not “third”.
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Does your operation use a SMS?
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Does your operation use a SMS?
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Yes. Company has applied for FAA acceptance/approval (not sure which one is correct - I moved back to strictly line pilot so I’m not fully up to date on the behind-the-scenes status of everything anymore).
 
SteveC said:
Yes. Company has applied for FAA acceptance/approval (not sure which one is correct - I moved back to strictly line pilot so I’m not fully up to date on the behind-the-scenes status of everything anymore).
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That's incredibly rare for 91/135. A friend was lead on a Clay Lacy managed Gee Wiz and even they didn't have an SMS. Safety is definitely not third. Congratulations. And I don't mean that sarcastically.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
That's incredibly rare for 91/135. A friend was lead on a Clay Lacy managed Gee Wiz and even they didn't have an SMS. Safety is definitely not third. Congratulations. And I don't mean that sarcastically.
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Thanks. We’ve got a VP of Ops and a Safety Director that really understand SMS, and while I wouldn’t say we’re fully there yet, we’re definitely getting much better at it and continuing to move in the right direction. No way to do it without having a true Accountable Executive that drives and supports the process, and the resources and commitment on down the line.
 
typhoonpilot said:
Shrink to profitability, it has been tried before, without success.
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That is correct. And I’m not saying that, “this time is different”. But the situation is inherently different. Do I think AA is at high risk of disappearing completely within a year or two? Yea I actually do. But I think post-consolidation it’s difficult to justify letting an airline such as AA fail completely. It is the primary carrier of people in several major US cities and if AA goes away it will significantly harm the ability of some of those cities/regions/states to recover.

The question is will the federal government allow that? I don’t think another airline bailout is coming, but I do think AA can in fact shrink and restructure in bankruptcy. My best guess is a 40-50% contraction to focus on smaller a domestic network centered around it's fortress hubs in DFW and CLT. DCA stays. PHL stays. MIA and ORD maybe, maybe not. LAX, LGA/JFK, PHX, and BOS are gone. Alaska will provide feed for AAG on the west coast. JetBlue on the east coast and in the Boston/New England business markets. British Airways provides international lift to Europe out of JFK. MIA presents a lot of domestic competition for AA. If Latin American and Caribbean travel make a rebound I think it will stay. And the addition of 321XLRs in a few years will make profitability in MIA and PHL easier. But that is so far in the future it may as well be a few hundred years. They have to figure out how much of the limb to cut off and where to tie the tourniquet now.

Americans ability to solve their problems out of the court are dependent on factors 100% outside of their control. So American’s leadership isn’t even in the driver’s seat at this point. The entire airline is at the mercy of passengers returning quickly to a sustainable level and perhaps more government intervention. Both, in my opinion, unlikely scenarios.

Some of the above scenarios may even provide some insight into consolidation. Will Southwest purchase someone and merge them to impede AA’s ability to survive? This business isn’t personal. It’s just business. But it is ruthless. A SWA acquisition of JetBlue, Alaska, or both would pretty much crater AA’s hopes of survival. Will SWA be in a position to do that? Time will tell. If passengers simply don’t return, this industry is going to get pretty damn ugly in about 6-12 months.
 
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I don’t have anything of value to say other than this freaking sucks. Despite making a masters degree there just aren’t any jobs out there. Living in base as a regional CA was manageable with the income but like so many others my fiancé and I may have to retreat to mom and dad’s paid off basement. We were close to purchasing property but that’s not happening anymore. I know this sucks for everyone and we aren’t alone but man, this is tough.
 
Man if we had an early retirement package at Southernjets I’d be all over it. But I have 16 heads until “mandatory” and the market has a funny way of saying “LOL” when you plan on bailing at 55.
 
Ayork62493 said:
I don’t have anything of value to say other than this freaking sucks. Despite making a masters degree there just aren’t any jobs out there. Living in base as a regional CA was manageable with the income but like so many others my fiancé and I may have to retreat to mom and dad’s paid off basement. We were close to purchasing property but that’s not happening anymore. I know this sucks for everyone and we aren’t alone but man, this is tough.
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You could have been like me and just bought a house close to the airport you could barely afford last year...

You're lucky you have a retreat plan.
 
chrisreedrules said:
That is correct. And I’m not saying that, “this time is different”. But the situation is inherently different. Do I think AA is at high risk of disappearing completely within a year or two? Yea I actually do. But I think post-consolidation it’s difficult to justify letting an airline such as AA fail completely. It is the primary carrier of people in several major US cities and if AA goes away it will significantly harm the ability of some of those cities/regions/states to recover.

The question is will the federal government allow that? I don’t think another airline bailout is coming, but I do think AA can in fact shrink and restructure in bankruptcy. My best guess is a 40-50% contraction to focus on smaller a domestic network centered around it's fortress hubs in DFW and CLT. DCA stays. PHL stays. MIA and ORD maybe, maybe not. LAX, LGA/JFK, PHX, and BOS are gone. Alaska will provide feed for AAG on the west coast. JetBlue on the east coast and in the Boston/New England business markets. British Airways provides international lift to Europe out of JFK. MIA presents a lot of domestic competition for AA. If Latin American and Caribbean travel make a rebound I think it will stay. And the addition of 321XLRs in a few years will make profitability in MIA and PHL easier. But that is so far in the future it may as well be a few hundred years. They have to figure out how much of the limb to cut off and where to tie the tourniquet now.

Americans ability to solve their problems out of the court are dependent on factors 100% outside of their control. So American’s leadership isn’t even in the driver’s seat at this point. The entire airline is at the mercy of passengers returning quickly to a sustainable level and perhaps more government intervention. Both, in my opinion, unlikely scenarios.

Some of the above scenarios may even provide some insight into consolidation. Will Southwest purchase someone and merge them to impede AA’s ability to survive? This business isn’t personal. It’s just business. But it is ruthless. A SWA acquisition of JetBlue, Alaska, or both would pretty much crater AA’s hopes of survival. Will SWA be in a position to do that? Time will tell. If passengers simply don’t return, this industry is going to get pretty damn ugly in about 6-12 months.
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I think you’ve thought more about this than anyone in Fort Worth.
 
Ayork62493 said:
I am really sorry. Sometimes one just needs to vent and I can’t even imagine the situation you are in.
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Meh. My plan is to basically add more room mates and apply for some kind of loan modification that isn't just a worse situation wrapped up in fancy packaging.

Other than that I have no debt. I still drive the crappy old Toyota Corolla. I keep life pretty simple. Sure no more trips to Whistler but I can't even get across the border. Even if furlough goes on a couple years I'll be fine unless there is some kind of draconian thing that happens with home loans.

I just wont ever be able to retire. Which isn't even in my current list of fires to be put out.

I'm very, very thankful I didn't purchase any new toys and stayed focused on housing within a reasonable drive to the airport. It probably won't bite me too badly. A new car or boat. Yeah that would hurt bigly and was in range of reasonable purchases. The adventure van to drive around and find cool mountain bike spots.

Would have been fun. But also would have been a huge loss this year.
 
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