Furlough Estimates

hammerhat said:
My "day job" company recently reopened Shanghai, Taipei, and Hong Kong offices. Yet all corporate travel is banned until further notice. This includes trips like NY to Philly or Shanghai to HK. I just can't imagine our EVP saying "You guys go ahead and book those plane tickets now" Nope, not happening.
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You know what I also couldn’t imagine the EVP saying: “Hey let’s book a private jet flight.” Or: “Hey those jets seem cheap, we should buy our own.”


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hammerhat said:
Oh I don't expect things to be rosy for 91/135. It's just going to be so much better than 121. We all know it's not the cheapskates with hidden city basic economy special limited time offer $49.95 tickets that keeps legacy 121 planes in the air. It's the suit in 1A charging $2000 through their Concur account. Those accounts are now closed and please keep making fun of me - I hope you're enjoying it - but those accounts are not getting reactivated anytime soon.

But as the businesses reopen, their officers will need to figure out the travel again. In the past FP&A of a small cap company would get a heart attack if you told her you needed private jet charters budgeted. But hey aren't they safer and cleaner than those coronavirus contaminated airliners and airport gates? So the C-level will start booking them and then mid level managers will join and eventually via race to the bottom most of the business travel will shift to the charter operators.
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What type of corporate aviation were you involved with during the last recession? I'm guessing none, because you're response is very naive.

When the middle class suffers, demand decreases, GDP contracts, and revenues go down. The corporate jet in many cases stops flying and is often sold. Particularly these days, where companies are very concerned about their public image.

Will some companies and HNWIs keep flying and even increase their flying for the reasons you stated? Absolutely. Will most companies and HNWIs fly more as we embark on this new recession? Absolutely not, as the data has proven every single time.
 
GypsyPilot said:
What type of corporate aviation were you involved with during the last recession? I'm guessing none, because you're response is very naive.

When the middle class suffers, demand decreases, GDP contracts, and revenues go down. The corporate jet in many cases stops flying and is often sold. Particularly these days, where companies are very concerned about their public image.

Will some companies and HNWIs keep flying and even increase their flying for the reasons you stated? Absolutely. Will most companies and HNWIs fly more as we embark on this new recession? Absolutely not, as the data has proven every single time.
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I flew 91/135 from 2005 to 2016. I've only been in the airline game a short while but if I have learned one thing it is that the 91/135 world seems to get infinitely better when the airlines are doing well. It's more of the opposite when things are not going so good at the majors. There are downward pressures on wages, working conditions and safety.

This isn't good for anyone. Come October 1 if you are employed in 91/135 your boss will have a big stack of resumes from guys with a lot of time. He'll likely point at them, tell you not to complain and how there are 10,000 resumes on file.

Ask me how I know...
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I flew 91/135 from 2005 to 2016. I've only been in the airline game a short while but if I have learned one thing it is that the 91/135 world seems to get infinitely better when the airlines are doing well. It's more of the opposite when things are not going so good at the majors. There are downward pressures on wages, working conditions and safety.

This isn't good for anyone. Come October 1 if you are employed in 91/135 your boss will have a big stack of resumes from guys with a lot of time. He'll likely point at them, tell you not to complain and how there are 10,000 resumes on file.

Ask me how I know...
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All true. There have been issues with trying to plug-n-play some very experienced 121 pilot into some 91/135 ops.

No dispatcher.
No flight attendant.
No gate agent.
No baggage handler.
No fueler? Maybe...
The lav??? Yep, you might have to handle that, too.
No cabin cleaners.
And then there’s the schedule.

The problems usually involve the little things that don’t involve the physical act of flying the airplane.
 
Only the better shops will care about that.

It was the DO of XOJET that said he had 10K resumes on file and if we didn't like XYZ we could leave. I'm pretty sure he didn't care if they were airline pilots or not.

This isn't going to be good for anyone.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I flew 91/135 from 2005 to 2016. I've only been in the airline game a short while but if I have learned one thing it is that the 91/135 world seems to get infinitely better when the airlines are doing well. It's more of the opposite when things are not going so good at the majors. There are downward pressures on wages, working conditions and safety.

This isn't good for anyone. Come October 1 if you are employed in 91/135 your boss will have a big stack of resumes from guys with a lot of time. He'll likely point at them, tell you not to complain and how there are 10,000 resumes on file.

Ask me how I know...
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Yep, that's always a fun conversation isn't it?

I was told the same thing (circa 2009) when I asked my part 91 CP about some of the stuff promised to me in my handshake interview a year prior. The only way I was able to ever make anything happen was when I got another job offer and threatened (and was willing to) quit.

I sincerely hope hammerhat has a nice boss and is working for a company that will thrive in this environment. I just disagree that overall 91/135 is going to stay healthy through this. Gulfstream isn't furloughing people in Savannah because they think explosive growth is around the corner.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Only the better shops will care about that.

It was the DO of XOJET that said he had 10K resumes on file and if we didn't like XYZ we could leave. I'm pretty sure he didn't care if they were airline pilots or not.

This isn't going to be good for anyone.
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And then there’s the whole training contract/proof of resignation (no recall rights) that can come into play.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I don't think my job is going anywhere (could be wrong), but it mainly consists of seeing customers, often getting there by air travel. I likely won't be seeing anyone period, or going there by airplane until 2021 at the soonest. (My employer shut down our travel in early February).
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Yup. I zeroed out our travel budget for the rest of the year. I’m usually flying somewhere on business about once a month. I don’t expect to return to that for at least a year.
 
When it comes to the 91/135 I think it will vary wildly. In the last downturn I saw the local 135 pick up some business from travelers who were now shopping price. They provided a decent product that was cheaper then the big fractional. So they actually grew during the 08 downturn. Their product was good enough to keep some of those clients even when things got better in the economy. The ones that will survive are the ones that don't own their airplanes. The place I work is strictly a management company that only manages airplanes out of our hometown. We have been very picky about owners only taking on the ones we felt where the right owners. Luckily a lot of them are in business that won't be hurt badly by this crash. We are seeing our block hours for May already surpassing the goal we set for ourselves for this month. Do I think we will light the world on fire? No but our owners will continue to use their airplanes to go to their second homes etc. Luckily most our owners don't use their airplanes for business much, its more personal use than anything.
 
Kingairer said:
If I was to get FUrloughed, and it appears temporary, My pick would be some sort of single pilot operation.
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Do you like the Pilatus Porter? Do you mind limited information and very tight flight plans? How comfortable are you off-airway and dead reckoning? Do you ask a lot of questions?

Well, talk to @MikeD and I. We have a particular operation you might be handy for.
 
Derg said:
Do you like the Pilatus Porter? Do you mind limited information and very tight flight plans? How comfortable are you off-airway and dead reckoning? Do you ask a lot of questions?

Well, talk to @MikeD and I. We have a particular operation you might be handy for.
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firing up JC-America once again..... Niiiiice
 
Derg said:
Do you like the Pilatus Porter? Do you mind limited information and very tight flight plans? How comfortable are you off-airway and dead reckoning? Do you ask a lot of questions?

Well, talk to @MikeD and I. We have a particular operation you might be handy for.
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I would have called out that trucker on the air, too. Just sayin’.
 
Inverted25 said:
When it comes to the 91/135 I think it will vary wildly. In the last downturn I saw the local 135 pick up some business from travelers who were now shopping price. They provided a decent product that was cheaper then the big fractional. So they actually grew during the 08 downturn. Their product was good enough to keep some of those clients even when things got better in the economy. The ones that will survive are the ones that don't own their airplanes. The place I work is strictly a management company that only manages airplanes out of our hometown. We have been very picky about owners only taking on the ones we felt where the right owners. Luckily a lot of them are in business that won't be hurt badly by this crash. We are seeing our block hours for May already surpassing the goal we set for ourselves for this month. Do I think we will light the world on fire? No but our owners will continue to use their airplanes to go to their second homes etc. Luckily most our owners don't use their airplanes for business much, its more personal use than anything.
Click to expand...
I think our business model will do OK on the backside of this as well. I anticipate more use of the fractional and card hours as businesses and individuals reduce their exposure on the airlines, and we’re seeing a strong uptick in interest from individuals that had the means to afford our services but couldn’t justify the jump up from airline first class - now they are seeing the safety benefit of traveling privately with the added bonus of massive time savings to boot.

Our managed aircraft are all owned by privately held companies (or private individuals), so they don’t have the pressure from stock holders to unload them that public companies do. Last downturn we picked up business from publicly held companies that divested their own aircraft but still needed the service for their executives.

And our company is safety first, not “third”.
 
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