Furlough Estimates

AAPalmTree said:
A pilot with a statistical background posted in on our pilot forum with the documents he used.
Click to expand...

Did it include mando retirements? Is that simply using a constant number of pilots per airframe based on how many there were going into the brick wall or something more elegant?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Flyinthrew said:
Did it include mando retirements? Is that simply using a constant number of pilots per airframe based on how many there were going into the brick wall or something more elegant?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

They're worthless numbers. Unless you know what the new ALV will be, and how many block hours will be flown, it doesn't mean anything.

Making models on previous crews per airframe is invalid ab initio, since those staffing numbers will change.
 
AAPalmTree said:
Someone did some wicked smart math about % of expected capacity announced by management/international exposure and came up with these numbers of excess pilots:
687 AAL pilots
1191 DAL pilots
2335 UAL pilots
Click to expand...

Come on! Eskimo Airways doesn’t even exist?! Sheesh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
If people are scared to fly and numbers don’t improve by September, you can probably take 30+% of any pilot group and cut them. If flying starts to see a significant uptick by September, I think it’ll be far less and maybe 0 in some cases. But until we know of people return no airline is safe.
 
Kingairer said:
If people are scared to fly and numbers don’t improve by September, you can probably take 30+% of any pilot group and cut them. If flying starts to see a significant uptick by September, I think it’ll be far less and maybe 0 in some cases. But until we know of people return no airline is safe.
Click to expand...
I agree, by September I think the holiday travel numbers will start coming in to focus. If that looks strong I could see minimal to no furloughs. I also can’t imagine Trump won’t be pushing for government investment number 2. Thousands of airline employees on the streets in November right before an election isn’t great for him or down ballot Republicans. But yea if load factors remain at 20-30 percent we are all hosed.
 
hammerhat said:
Here's my prediction: quarantine will become permanent. Well, not in its present shape and form. Schools will reopen. So will some businesses. Social distancing will become the norm. Many industries will never fully recover. International travel is one of them, at least not in our lifetimes. Government travel restrictions will become commonplace (think "health visa" to virtually any country, mandatory 2 weeks isolation for all arrivals etc). Wannabe dictators will continue their power grab and restricting freedoms.
Click to expand...

Not even a month ago people here were laughing at my predictions calling it incomprehensible and beyond belief. Ok fine.

Here's my next one. 135/91k will start recovering (however anemic that recovery may be) way before airlines even find bottom. Business travelers will be more willing to pay for on demand charters and fractional ownerships than before the pandemic. Citation type rating will be more marketable than 777. And good for Textron, btw. I'd be going long on their stock if I had extra cash (I don't so don't listen to my stock advice)
 
AAPalmTree said:
Someone did some wicked smart math about % of expected capacity announced by management/international exposure and came up with these numbers of excess pilots:
687 AAL pilots
1191 DAL pilots
2335 UAL pilots
Click to expand...

Pilot math. Didn’t I warn you about these things? :)

When it comes to pilot math, how many your coworkers were posting “XYZ labs are on the finishing touches of a vaccine, I’m putting half of the cash of my 401(k) in it” two months ago?

Same crowd.
 
hammerhat said:
Not even a month ago people here were laughing at my predictions calling it incomprehensible and beyond belief. Ok fine.

Here's my next one. 135/91k will start recovering (however anemic that recovery may be) way before airlines even find bottom. Business travelers will be more willing to pay for on demand charters and fractional ownerships than before the pandemic. Citation type rating will be more marketable than 777. And good for Textron, btw. I'd be going long on their stock if I had extra cash (I don't so don't listen to my stock advice)
Click to expand...

I wonder if some of you guys touting this were flying 91/135 in 2008-2011? I was, and it was an ugly time to be a corporate or charter pilot. If things continue as they are, none of us are immune and one of the first assets on the chopping block during bad times is the corporate jet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top