Furlough Estimates

[CFIT99]

In all the sh*tty news lately, I would like to spread some good news rumors.

-F9 is rumored to have classes of 40-50 starting around March. Apparently they want 300-500 new hires next year. Not sure on the recall #'s for F-0 pilots. It's rumored to have them being hired into 0-hour lines (after training) till all pilots are brought back to min guarantee lines.
-We have 13 aircraft being delivered next year (5 returns) so a net of 8 A320's.* (lots of aircraft deferred till 2022)
-all A319's are staying in the desert and being retired/sold (only had 6 total)
- rumored to have preferential interviews to furloughed regional pilots (specifically expressjet)
-opening 1-3 bases next year (PHX being the top candidate followed of rumors of TPA, CVG, ONT, RSW, and RDU)



*that number is a moving target so enjoy carefully

 

[Ayork62493]

In all the sh*tty news lately, I would like to spread some good news rumors.

-F9 is rumored to have classes of 40-50 starting around March. Apparently they want 300-500 new hires next year. Not sure on the recall #'s for F-0 pilots. It's rumored to have them being hired into 0-hour lines (after training) till all pilots are brought back to min guarantee lines.
-We have 13 aircraft being delivered next year (5 returns) so a net of 8 A320's.* (lots of aircraft deferred till 2022)
-all A319's are staying in the desert and being retired/sold (only had 6 total)
- rumored to have preferential interviews to furloughed regional pilots (specifically expressjet)
-opening 1-3 bases next year (PHX being the top candidate followed of rumors of TPA, CVG, ONT, RSW, and RDU)



*that number is a moving target so enjoy carefully

Out of curiosity, do you think Denver is around for the long haul? I know you need to be a dinosaur to hold captain there. My hope and dreams of working at a Legacy died this year so you know, just curious.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

In all the sh*tty news lately, I would like to spread some good news rumors.

-F9 is rumored to have classes of 40-50 starting around March. Apparently they want 300-500 new hires next year. Not sure on the recall #'s for F-0 pilots. It's rumored to have them being hired into 0-hour lines (after training) till all pilots are brought back to min guarantee lines.
-We have 13 aircraft being delivered next year (5 returns) so a net of 8 A320's.* (lots of aircraft deferred till 2022)
-all A319's are staying in the desert and being retired/sold (only had 6 total)
- rumored to have preferential interviews to furloughed regional pilots (specifically expressjet)
-opening 1-3 bases next year (PHX being the top candidate followed of rumors of TPA, CVG, ONT, RSW, and RDU)



*that number is a moving target so enjoy carefully

I just don't understand how this is possible. Travel is still at about 30% of normal levels.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

I just don't understand how this is possible. Travel is still at about 30% of normal levels.

Maybe in aggregate and maybe at non-ULCCs.

 

[tcco94]

Maybe in aggregate and maybe at non-ULCCs.

Yup...

How much of the daily % last year was international, which our borders are essentially closed....
(Curious side, not saying it's a lot)

 

[Dexter]

No furloughs at Delta. 74% voted yes.

I'm reading this as you can afford a ski pass and occasional golf.

Edit: Also you're welcome. Despite @Autothrust Blue 's assumption all Southern Jets pilots are "Selfish F___s"

 

[tcco94]

I'm reading this as you can afford a ski pass and occasional golf.

Edit: Also you're welcome. Despite @Autothrust Blue 's assumption all Southern Jets pilots are "Selfish F___s"

Park city it is. Golf clubs are in the basement bro

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Park city it is. Golf clubs are in the basement bro

Is it snowing in SLC? Its not in PHX. Shocker, right? Right???

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

In all the sh*tty news lately, I would like to spread some good news rumors.

-F9 is rumored to have classes of 40-50 starting around March. Apparently they want 300-500 new hires next year. Not sure on the recall #'s for F-0 pilots. It's rumored to have them being hired into 0-hour lines (after training) till all pilots are brought back to min guarantee lines.
-We have 13 aircraft being delivered next year (5 returns) so a net of 8 A320's.* (lots of aircraft deferred till 2022)
-all A319's are staying in the desert and being retired/sold (only had 6 total)
- rumored to have preferential interviews to furloughed regional pilots (specifically expressjet)
-opening 1-3 bases next year (PHX being the top candidate followed of rumors of TPA, CVG, ONT, RSW, and RDU)



*that number is a moving target so enjoy carefully

Ooooooooh!

 

[tcco94]

Is it snowing in SLC? Its not in PHX. Shocker, right? Right???

We had a couple weeks of good snow for the mountains. The resorts are opening up but I assume a lot is still fake now for right now.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

We had a couple weeks of good snow for the mountains. The resorts are opening up but I assume a lot is still fake now for right now.

Well, hopefully you guys have as good a season last year. Winter doesn't start there till late December early January anyway.

 

[KLB]

I know people may disagree but sometimes you have to look over that cliff with the company, shrug, and tell them "the fall is going to hurt you more than me" grab their hand and get ready to jump.

Late to this party and have no horse in this race, but this is exactly how divorce mediation goes. Haha

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Maybe in aggregate and maybe at non-ULCCs.

So your assertion is that most of the 30% are traveling on ULCCs and that the 70% reduction in travel is all being shouldered by the legacy carriers? Is there any evidence to support that?

 

[Autothrust Blue]

So your assertion is that most of the 30% are traveling on ULCCs and that the 70% reduction in travel is all being shouldered by the legacy carriers? Is there any evidence to support that?

Our system load factors (this is public) are still around 70%, and our publicly-available presentations have already shown signs of recovery in the visiting friends, family, and leisure travel market, so...yes.

 

[Flyinthrew]

The 7 day rolling average of TSA passenger numbers is 40% of 2019. It has not begun to decay despite the latest wave of virus. Average growth of year over year pax numbers is 1% per week. Even if that growth rate does not accelerate as vaccines are distributed (an overly conservative assumption I think), domestic only carriers are going to be swimming in passengers by July. Frontier, JetBlue, and Spirit bringing on new hires is entirely plausible. SWA not so much since they were overmanned going into this.


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[tcco94]

The 7 day rolling average of TSA passenger numbers is 40% of 2019. It has not begun to decay despite the latest wave of virus. Average growth of year over year pax numbers is 1% per week. Even if that growth rate does not accelerate as vaccines are distributed (an overly conservative assumption I think), domestic only carriers are going to be swimming in passengers by July. Frontier, JetBlue, and Spirit bringing on new hires is entirely plausible. SWA not so much since they were overmanned going into this.


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The fact travel was increasing to what it is now (even pre-thanksgiving) when there is nothing to do and no where to go is a bit encouraging in my eyes. You'd think we'd still be around 2-300k or less.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Our system load factors (this is public) are still around 70%, and our publicly-available presentations have already shown signs of recovery in the visiting friends, family, and leisure travel market, so...yes.

Do you still have planes parked, or are all back to a full schedule? Load factors mean nothing by themselves.

 

[chrisreedrules]

I just don't understand how this is possible. Travel is still at about 30% of normal levels.

Everyone’s preparing for a large piece of the airline puzzle to fail. We all know who it’s going to be...

 

[CFIT99]

I just don't understand how this is possible. Travel is still at about 30% of normal levels.

I’m literally passing on what I’ve heard from LCA, IP and higher ups

 

[Autothrust Blue]

Do you still have planes parked, or are all back to a full schedule? Load factors mean nothing by themselves.

Still have 'em parked, and you needn't remind me. But our schedule has really ramped up in response to demand in the last several weeks.